US Open Final Preview: No. 1 Jannik Sinner vs. No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz

By Richard Pagliaro | Saturday, September 6, 2025
Photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty

NEW YORK—Times Square is the crossroads of the world.

Arthur Ashe Stadium is the intersection of imposition and inspiration when world No. 1 Jannik Sinner faces world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in Sunday’s historic US Open final starting at 2 p.m.

When the world’s top two men meet in the Flushing Meadows final, it marks the third straight Grand Slam final between the same two male rivals—the first time in Open Era history two men face off in three major finals in a single season. 

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal squared off in four consecutive major finals from the 2011 Wimbledon through the 2012 Roland Garros, but that spanned two years.

The top-seeded Italian and second-seeded Spaniard have combined to collect seven straight Grand Slam singles titles.

When they face off in the Flushing Meadows final, history and the world No. 1 ranking is at stake.

What’s At Stake

The world No. 1 ranking. If Alcaraz wins, he supplants Sinner as world No. 1 rising to the top spot for the first time since September, 2023.

The $5 Million champion’s check—the largest single payday in Grand Slam history (remember Sinner earned $6 Million for winning the Six Kings Slam exhibition event last fall)—the runner-up earns $2.5 Million.

No. 1 Sinner is playing for his fifth career major crown—and to become the first man to successfully defend the US Open since Roger Federer won his fifth straight Flushing Meadows title back in 2008.

No. 2 Alcaraz is playing for his sixth career Grand Slam championship and second US Open title in the last four years.

Tale of the Tape

Head-to-Head: Carlos Alcaraz leads Jannik Sinner 9-5 (Alcaraz leads 6-2 on hard court).

2025 Records: Jannik Sinner 37-4 (18-1 on hard court). Carlos Alcaraz (60-6, 27-4 on hard court).

Career Grand Slam Records: Jannik Sinner 87-19. Carlos Alcaraz 83-13.

Career Grand Slam Titles: Jannik Sinner 4. Carlos Alcaraz 5.

Career Records: Jannik Sinner 300-84 (206-50 on hard court). Carlos Alcaraz 269-62 (131-30 on hard court).

Age: Jannik Sinner 24. Carlos Alcaraz 22.

Height: Jannik Sinner is 6-foot-3. Carlos Alcaraz is 6-feet tall.

Career Earnings: Jannik Sinner $46,279,987. Carlos Alcaraz: $48,486,628.

Coaches: Darren Cahill and Simone Vagnozzi are Sinner’s coaches. Juan Carlos Ferrero and Samuel Lopez are Alcaraz’s coaches.

Famous Fans: Pope Leo and Andrea Bocelli are Sinner fans. King Felipe VI of Spain and Jon Bon Jovi are Alcaraz fans. 

US Open Final Television Coverage
All Times are Eastern

ABC: US Open Men’s Final Preview Show, 1-2 p.m. 

ABC: US Open Men’s Final, 2-5:30 p.m. 

ESPN Deportes: US Open Men’s Final Preview Show, 1:30-2 p.m.

ESPN Deportes: US Open Men’s Final, 2-6 p.m.

ESPN2: US Open Men’s Final Replay Presentation, 8-11 p.m.

Carlos Alcaraz on Facing Jannik Sinner

“I always take things about the previous matches. You know, if I’m playing against Jannik, obviously I’m going to take things about the last matches that I’ve played against him. The last one or the last three matches, I’m going to take note, and I will see what I did wrong, what I did great in the matches, just to approach the final in a good way. Let’s see.”

Jannik Sinner on Facing Carlos Alcaraz

“He has improved a lot the serve. I feel like he’s serving much better with the better pace, but the percentage is very high all the time. Much more solid, you know, for example, because maybe before there were more ups and downs. Now he’s very consistent. Also, if you watch all the tournaments, he’s going very, very far. So many, many improvements, you know. But I always say that when you are young, you know, one year or two years, they make big difference. I feel the same with me. The serving has gotten better. You know, my net game, it has improved.” 

Why Jannik Sinner Will Win

The world No. 1 is clearly the world’s best hard-court player. Sinner has won the last three hard-court Grand Slam championships—2024 Australian Open, 2024 US Open and 2025 Australian Open—and he’s empowered by a 27-match major winning streak at hard-court Slams, tying Djokovic for second-longest streak in history. Roger Federer won a record 40 straight Grand Slam hard-court matches.

The 24-year-old Italian recently dethroned two-time Wimbledon winner Alcaraz at SW19 and looked commanding in a four-set win—that very well could have been straight sets—leaving the second-seeding Spaniard in the rare position of looking confused.

The 6’3” Italian is taller and rangier than Alcaraz and arguably tougher to beat out of the corners. That’s an essential element in this rivalry because Alcaraz, like two of his tennis heroes Nadal and Federer, is at his best standing closer to his backhand corner so he can fire his favored forehand. Sinner’s skill rocketing drives down the line, particularly the backhand down the line in this match-up, is crucial because he can exploit the opening produced by Alcaraz’s tendency to shade toward his backhand corner. In fact, the last man to beat Alcaraz on a hard court, No. 56 David Goffin in Miami, did exactly that in March and as you know Goffin, a clean ball striker, does not hit nearly as hard as Sinner does.

Yes, Alcaraz is the most devastating shotmaker in our sport, but Sinner is the most disciplined champion in the game. Sinner rarely spits up the sloppy service games or goes on walkabout as Alcaraz sometimes does. Remember, Alcaraz was pushed to the limit by both 56th-ranked Damir Dzumhur and 11th-ranked Andrey Rublev en route to the Cincinnati title. No disrespect to either of those players as both played fine matches but they are not in Sinner’s class and if Alcaraz suffers a similar lapse on Sunday he will pay a steep price.

Alcaraz is more entertaining, but Sinner is more of an exterminator. Sinner’s ruthlessness and  repetition of hovering near the baseline and hammering away over and over will not only take a toll on Alcaraz, it may well result in the Roland Garros champion pushing the envelope, taking even more risk and piling up some unforced errors.

Why Carlos Alcaraz Will Win

While the world No. 1 has been the best hard-court player, Alcaraz is absolutely playing the best tennis right now. Alcaraz is the first man since Federer in 2015 to roll into the US Open final without surrendering a set. Cincinnati Open champion Alcaraz was beating a sick Sinner down in the Queen City before the ailing Italian pulled the plug and Alcaraz will be fueled for more of the same in Queens. Remember, Alcaraz is riding a 12-match winning streak into the final. Winning the US Open is about what you did last year or six months ago, it’s about how you’re playing right now and Alcaraz is playing better than Sinner now.

Fearless fighter—the worst position in tennis right now is trailing Jannik Sinner in a major match. Frontrunner Sinner squashes even elites when he’s up in the score. Guess what: Alcaraz can play even bolder and shine even brighter when he’s down. You remember Alcaraz fighting off three championship points to break Sinner’s heart in the Roland Garros epic in June. Die-hard US Open fans will remember Alcaraz saving a match point to out-duel Sinner 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3,  in the long night’s journey into day 2022 US Open quarterfinal. If Alcaraz gets down in this final, he will pour even more passion out on court knowing he can come back. 

Superior serving—Alcaraz has surrendered serve just twice in six tournament wins. In contrast, Sinner surrendered serve three times in his third-round comeback win over Denis Shapovalov in round three and dropped serve against Felix Auger-Aliassime, who also had a triple-break point game he didn’t convert, in last night’s semifinals. On the fast Flushing Meadows court, the serve is key. The world’s top two are nearly even in first-serve points won in this tournament—Alcaraz is at 84 percent, Sinner is at 83 percent—but Alcaraz leads the US Open in second-serve points won (65 percent), which is a crucial stat as Sinner is among the best exploiting opponent’s second serves.   

Head-to-head history. While it’s true Sinner overwhelmed Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final, remember Alcaraz has won six of their last seven encounters and leads their overall head to head series 9-5. While it’s largely true you can throw past matches out the window when talking about the pressure of a major final, Alcaraz won’t be playing this final on hope. He will play with strong self belief knowing he can beat the world No. 1 because he already has done it and done it repeatedly in big matches.

Hunger for revenge tour. Alcaraz will win because he has more to gain and more to prove. The 22-year-old Spaniard has repeatedly said regaining world No. 1 is his top priority (and winning his maiden Australian Open to complete the career Grand Slam his next priority) and he will be even more motivated knowing Sinner stripped him of his Wimbledon crown. Remember, Djokovic beat Alcaraz twice in a row, including a glorious win in the Olympic gold-medal match last summer to capture his first gold medal. If you think those losses didn’t fuel Alcaraz’s straight-sets sweep of the Grand Slam king in yesterday’s semifinals, you’re kidding yourself.

Prediction

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is the world’s best player, the world’s best hard-court champion AND had he converted just one of those three championship points in Paris we’d all be talking about the Italian bidding to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to capture the calendar Grand Slam. 

The top seed is more disciplined, more ruthless and has shown tremendous resolve bouncing back from the three-month suspension he accepted to settle WADA’s appeal of his doping case. Sinner has overcome nearly all obstacles delivering a historic season and picking him is the high-percentage play here.

If you’re picking Sinner, I can’t argue with you  at all. He hovers on the baseline, he’s quick off the mark, he detonates drives off both wings and his assertive court positioning and rangy reach reduce can minimize one of Alcaraz’s greatest weapons, the drop shot. 

Sinner got sick in the Cincinnati final and has taken treatment in a couple of matches at the US Open, but downplayed his trainer visit during the semifinals saying “ I just felt a small twitching after a serve when I served there in the second set on 4-3. After the treatment, was feeling much, much better.” 

Alcaraz has been so energized, he’s played golf on off days with tennis fanatic, golfer and ex-Martina Hingis paramour Sergio Garcia. 

The 22-year-old Alcaraz  is the most creative champion I’ve covered at the Open since Federer and recall young Federer did not often play the drop shot once branding it “a panic shot” before he embraced it at Roland Garros. The concrete jungle of New York is the chaos Slam where fans fueled on $23 Honey Deuces, chocolate martinis, Heinekens and a reported appearance by President Donald Trump to this final could create super-sized spectacle.

Alcaraz is a unique champion in that he’s both the calm in the center of the chaotic storm—and simultaneously the shotmaking storm itself. Watching him up close, I can’t predict what he’s going to do next—and I wonder sometimes if he can even predict it before it happens. 

As Hall of Famer and TNT analyst Andre Agassi observed before the Roland Garros final Sinner vs. Alcaraz is “the best pure ball striker versus the Flying Saucer.”

I’m riding with the Spanish Spacecraft here. Alcaraz can bend the ball into spaces that defy pure imagination.

Sure, statistically you have to roll with Sinner becoming the first man since Federer to successfully defend the US Open.

In my view, you can’t quantify the magic that Alcaraz conjures on court—you just have to appreciate its wondrous luminosity as Djokovic himself did, applauding Alcaraz on court in the semifinals.

The Pick

Carlos Alcaraz defeats Jannik Sinner in 5 sets

We’ll post a full US Open final recap and player reactions tomorrow on Tennis Now.