Australian Open Women’s Final Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina

By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, January 29, 2026
Photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty for WTA Tour

Melbourne’s motto is four seasons in a day. 

Grand Slam champions Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have thrown down thunder Down Under.

The two premier power players in the game have not surrendered a set en route to a titanic title clash in Saturday’s Australian Open final.

World No. 1 Sabalenka and the fifth-ranked Rybakina each ride imposing winning streaks into this rematch of the 2023 AO final, which saw the Belarusian rally for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in a pulsating title match.

The top-seeded Sabalenka has won 13 consecutive major hard-court matches as she plays for her third Australian Open championship and fifth major hard-court crown.

A red-hot Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches, defeating nine straight Top 10 opponents in that span, including scoring a 6-3, 7-6(0) win over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals championship match last November. Rybakina is the both the last woman to defeat Sabalenka and the last to beat the Belarusian in a tiebreaker.

Here’s our Australian Open final preview and prediction.

(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (5) Elena Rybakina (KAZ)

Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 8-6

Grand Slam head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 2-0

Australian Open Records: Sabalenka 34-6 (Best Result: Champion 2023 and 2024); Rybakina 20-6 (Best Result: Finalist 2023 and 2026)

2026 Records: Sabalenka 11-0; Rybakina 8-1

Career Grand Slam Records: Sabalenka 106-26; Rybakina 65-22

Career Titles: Sabalenka 22; Rybakina 11

Career Grand Slam Titles: Sabalenka 4, Rybakina 1

Age: Sabalenka 27; Rybakina 26

Height: Sabalenka 5’11”; Rybakina 6’0

Career Prize Money: Sabalenka $45,397,966; Rybakina $24,476,357

Aryna Sabalenka on Elena Rybakina:

“I think her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls. It’s not easy to work with, but we have a great history. She’s an incredible player. We had a lot of great battles, a lot of finals we played. I’m looking forward to battle this power… 

“Me and her, we both are different players [than 2023]. We went through different things. We’re much stronger mentally and physically, and we’re playing better tennis now. So I will approach this as a completely different match, and we have a  long history after that final. So I’ll approach this match as the very first one, and I will do my very best.”

Elena Rybakina on Aryna Sabalenka:

“Last match we played here, it was very close. I think I throughout the match of course I had some little opportunities, but in the end of this third set, I think Aryna stepped in. She served much better. Yeah, she deserved that win.

“So of course many years passed, a lot of matches has been played. Hopefully with all the experience which I got from this last match, last time final I played here, I can bring it to Saturday match and do my best, focus on my serve, of course. Since we are both very aggressive players, serve is important. Yeah, fight till the end, and hopefully this time it’s gonna go my way.” 

Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win

The world No. 1 is equally as explosive as Rybakina, but Sabalenka is a better mover, particularly coming forward, is more comfortable shifting spins and can deliver authoritative answers from all over the court. Look for Sabalenka, the 2021 AO doubles champion, to close net at times and occasionally play the drop shot or short angled slice to disrupt the flat-hitting Rybakina’s rhythm. Working on her net play with co-coach Max Mirnyi, the former doubles world No. 1, Sabalenka has serve-and-volleyed at times this season and possesses the variety, explosive weapons and confidence to keep Rybakina off balance.

Forehand exchanges can be crucial here. Two-time AO champion Sabalenka hits her forehand with a bit more spin, while Rybakina hits a heavy flat forehand, however the Kazakh tends to predictably play her forehand crosscourt—especially under pressure. Sabalenka knows it and will be ready for it. It’s quite possible tiebreaks could come into play if both are serving well. Tiebreak Tiger Sabalenka has won an Open Era record 20 consecutive major tiebreaks and continues to elevate her game in tiebreak pressure. The top-seeded Sabalenka is peaking at the perfect time: She’s surrendered just eight games in the quarterfinals and semifinals to become the first woman since legendary Hall of Famer Martina Hingis in 2002 to advance to four consecutive AO finals. Sabalenka is pumped to regain this AO crown, has great respect for Rybakina’s power and will play with power and purpose to capture the crown.

Why Elena Rybakina Will Win

The serve and return are the most important strokes in the sport. The 2025 WTA ace leader Rybakina is not only the most devastating server in the game, she’s a dangerous returner who’s skilled using her wide wingspan to whip deep returns off both wings. Consider in her last three matches: Rybakina has defeated former AO doubles champion Elise Mertens, world No. 2 Iga Swiatek and No. 6 Jessica Pegula. In those three victories—against three highly-skilled returners—Rybakina has ripped a combined 27 aces against just four double faults and leads the tournament with 41 aces in six matches (Sabalenka has hit 22 aces in six matches).

Yes, Sabalenka is clearly the world’s best player, but Rybakina is playing the best tennis in the world in recent months. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has won 19 of her last 20 matches. Rybakina has beaten nine straight Top 10 opponents in that superb span, including Sabalenka. Remember, last November, Rybakina saved two set points in the 10th game then powered through a perfect tiebreaker sweeping Sabalenka 6-3, 7-6(0) to capture her maiden WTA Finals championship—and a  WTA record champion’s check of $5.235 million.

A stoic competitor, who rarely reveals how she’s feeling on court, Rybakina won’t be over-awed by Sabalenka’s power or physical presence because she craves pace and because she just beat the world No. 1 on November 8th.

Prediction

If past is prologue, we are in for a fierce final featuring seismic first-strike tennis from the two biggest hitters in the sport. When Rybakina is serving with dominance, she can disarm any woman in the game—even Sabalenka. Look for Rybakina to hammer the wide serve on the ad side to set up her first strike. If you’re Sabalenka, you want to wait for the toss to go up, then take a couple of steps left to intercept the angle on that favored Rybakina serve. Rybakina confounded 5’7” Jessica Pegula with her hellacious kick second serve, however the 5’11” Sabalenka is taller and stronger and can spin the ball more than Pegula.

I see this final as a true toss-up because both Grand Slam champions have the skill and power to command the center of the court and dictate the direction of rallies from the first strike. Eight of their 14 meetings have gone the three-set distance.

If you’re picking Rybakina, I cannot argue with you—she’s playing the best tennis right now and her serve is the biggest shot on the court.

Still, I’m riding with Sabalenka here. I believe the world No. 1 owns more variety, she can do more with the ball and she thrives on Rod Laver Arena. After a couple of near major misses last season including her Roland Garros final loss to Coco Gauff and Wimbledon semifinal setback to Amanda Anisimova, I see Sabalenka’s dynamic shotmaking and sheer determination powering her to a third consecutive Grand Slam hard-court championship.

The Pick: Aryna Sabalenka d. Elena Rybakina in 3 sets