P-Mac: Sabalenka Slide Raises Red Flags for SW19
Richard Pagliaro | Monday, June 22, 2026
Photo credit: Rob Newell/CameraSport
Noted tennis fan Shakespeare famously observed “Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.”
Aryna Sabalenka’s head looked ready to explode amid third-set stress recently.
Absorbing third-set bagel losses on the red clay of Paris and the grass of Berlin, Sabalenka arrives at Wimbledon in a unique position.
The world No. 1 is oddsmakers’ firm favorite to win her maiden Wimbledon crown—and possibly more vulnerable to an upset on grass than clay in the eyes of some analysts.
The red storm that shredded her psyche at Roland Garros is a major red flag for ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe, who cites movement as the biggest reason why none of Sabalenka’s 24 singles titles have come on lawn.
“I think it’s a huge red flag for Sabalenka,” Patrick McEnroe told Tennis Now in an ESPN Zoom call today to promote the network’s Wimbledon coverage starting on June 29th. “The fact she lost the last two matches 6-Love in the third, I find that very shocking, especially for a player with her kind of fire power.
“But I think that Zverev had a great comment when someone asked him: ‘Well, you’ve got a great serve, you’ve got a great return, you hit the ball hard, well how come you haven’t done great at Wimbledon?’
“He just laughed and said that has nothing to do with it. It’s all about the movement and being comfortable on the grass. I think it’s something Sabalenka does better over the years. I would say she’s a slightly better mover, compared to Zverev on the men’s side, but I think that [movement] is the biggest X-factor.”
In today’s Zoom call, ESPN analyst Mary Joe Fernandez said despite Sabalenka’s complete collapse in Paris, her game is suited for Wimbledon.
Sabalenka can play first-strike tennis, she can detonate points off both serve and return and she’s produced results at SW19 reaching three semifinals in her last three Wimbledon appearances.
Still, Sabalenka’s surrender in her last two losses raises concern, says Fernandez.
“I am a little bit concerned about to be honest,” Fernandez told Tennis Now. “Because she was coming in playing really well and I feel like her game translates to all the surfaces.
“And it should translate to the grass with how powerfully she hits the ball and she’s got a weapon in the serve and a weapon with the returns.”
Spiraling through a 10-game free fall, Sabalenka suffered the most shocking collapse of her Grand Slam career at Roland Garros.
Left-handed Diana Shnaider, severe stress and a wild wind conspired to topple world No. 1 Sabalenka 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 and charge into her maiden major semifinal in one of the most unlikely upsets in recent Roland Garros history.
The top-seeded Sabalenka was in command leading 6-3, 4-1, 30-Love when Shnaider turned up the heat on her favored forehand and Sabalenka sputtered, stumbled and ultimately crumbled amid swirling winds that sometimes spiked at 35 miles an hour.
“What happened in Paris: She really fell apart,” Fernandez told Tennis Now. “I mean, the conditions got to her again and losing I think 10 of 11 games in a row was a bit of a shock.
“So even though I think she’s overcome a lot in her career and she’s [done well] in the four majors, she’s been No. 1 for a while, she obviously still struggles with it at times.”
That struggle erupted again in Berlin’s grass on Saturday when Pegula silenced Sabalenka in the decider 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-0 to reach the final.
Nine different women won the last nine Wimbledon titles—Serena Williams, who makes her SW19 singles and doubles return on wild cards next week—is the last woman to successfully defend Wimbledon back in 2016.
Given the turnover at the top and the instability on Centre Court is this conceivably Sabalenka’s best shot to raise the Rosewater Dish at the major where she’s posted her worst record?
Patrick McEnroe is not buying it.
Instead, McEnroe points to 2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina as the favorite to rule Wimbledon six months after she rallied from Love-3 down in the decider to defeat Sabalenka in the Australian Open women’s final.
“I think Rybakina is the favorite because of the way she hits the ball and I think she’s more comfortable moving even though she’s tall,” McEnroe told Tennis Now. “I just think she feels more comfortable moving [on the lawn]. I think she’s got the purest grass-court game of anyone out there—on the women’s side.”
Working with former doubles world No. 1 Max Mirnyi as co-coach, Sabalenka has aimed to improve her forward movement on lawn, even serving-and-volleying at times. Sabalenka is 5-2 vs. Top 10 opponents this year and in both losses—to Rybakina in the Australian Open final and to Pegula in the Berlin semifinals—the woman with the tiger tattoo lacked her normal ferocious bite at crunch time.
Fernandez suggests Sabalenka’s biggest obstacle isn’t beneath her feet—it’s between her ears. ESPN analyst Fernandez says if Sabalenka can shake the shadow of stress that’s dogged her in recent collapses, she can capture her fifth career Grand Slam—and first on a natural surface—at The Championships.
“To me, she’s still the favorite to win Wimbledon, but not as clear of a favorite as I think I would have picked her a month ago. So we’ll see,” Fernandez told Tennis Now today. “Nine different champions in the last nine years just shows you it’s more wide-open than ever.
“Grass is just different, right? It’s not a surface that the players get to play on very often and a lot of upsets happen especially in the first week. So who’s comfortable with the movement? Who’s playing with confidence on those big points? The margins are smaller on grass, there are less breaks of serve on grass. So it will be interesting.”
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