Indian Wells Women’s Draw: Top Takeaways
By Richard Pagliaro | Monday, March 2, 2026
Photo credit: BNP Paribas Open Facebook
Power players, prodigies and renaissance performers are poised to make an impact in Tennis Paradise.
The singles draws for the 2026 BNP Paribas Open were conducted today.
Here are our top takeaways from the women’s draw, which features former champions Mirra Andreeva, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Naomi Osaka, Paula Badosa and Bianca Andreescu in the field.
Aryna Sabalenka’s Challenging Path
Aryna Sabalenka felt the stinging pain of falling short in Melbourne.
The world No. 1 could face some aching and arduous tests in Palm Springs.
Continuing her quest for a maiden Indian Wells championship, two-time finalist Sabalenka’s path to her third final in the last four years could look like this:
*R1: Bye
*R2: Alycia Parks or a Qualifier
*R3: (29) Maya Joint
*R4: (16) Naomi Osaka
*QF: (6) Amanda Anisimova
*SF: (4) Coco Gauff
*F: (2) Iga Swiatek
When Osaka out-dueled Sabalenka in an electric 2018 US Open fourth-round showdown, it seemed a prelude for a rousing rivalry. They haven’t played each other since, so a meeting between four-time Grand Slam champions would be intriguing, though obviously Sabalenka has out-paced Osaka in recent years.
A Sabalenka vs. Anisimova quarterfinal clash would be a rematch of the 2025 US Open final. The flat-hitting Anisimova is one of the few women in the world who can out-hit Sabalenka, particularly off her punishing two-handed backhand. Anisimova is 6-5 lifetime vs. Sabalenka though the Wimbledon finalist has just one win in her last three Indian Wells appearances.
Montreal champion and 10th-seeded Victoria Mboko is also a dangerous presence in Sabalenka’s quarter. Mboko has that rare combination of speed and power, transitions from defense to attack smoothly and can play fearless tennis at her best. She showed all of it knocking off Mirra Andreeva, Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko en route to the Doha final last month.
Mirra Andreeva’s Demanding Defense
Prodigy pressure ratchets up as the 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva as she aims to defend Indian Wells.
A year ago, Andreeva played with poise and precision beating Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka in succession to capture her second straight WTA 1000 title in Indian Wells.
Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
This year, the entire field will be aiming for Andreeva, who opens against either Solana Sierra or Austin champion Peyton Stearns.
Andreeva opened the year winning the Adelaide title and has endured excruciating back-to-back third-set tiebreaker losses to Victoria Mboko in Doha and Amanda Anisimova in Dubai that left her in tears.
Andreeva is a fit, fast, fierce fighter, but the question is: How will she cope with the pressure of her title defense and defending 1000 ranking points to maintain her place in the Top 10?
Clearest Ex-Champion Path
Elena Rybakina should enjoy the view from her spot in the third quarter of the draw.
Rybakina has arguably the best path of any contender in the field.
The 2023 champion Rybakina edged Sabalenka in tight final three years ago, the grittier Indian Wells court elicits a higher bounce for her kick serve and affords her time to set up for the first strike. The 2025 and 2026 WTA ace leader is second to Sabalenka in service games won this season (82.4%).
The third-seeded Rybakina’s path to a potential final return shapes up as follows if seeds hold true to form:
R1: Bye
R2: Hailey Baptiste or Emiliana Arango
R3: (28) Marta Kostyuk
R4: (15) Madison Keys
QF: (5) Jessica Pegula
SF: (2) Iga Swiatek
F: (1) Aryna Sabalenka
World No. 2 Iga Swiatek has captured the championship in two of the last four years.
The combination of Swiatek’s twisting topspin forehand, flat backhand and speed around the court make her a disorientating opponent to face in the desert.
Look for another deep run from Swiatek, who has won 20 of her last 22 Indian Wells matches with her lone losses in that span coming in the 2023 semifinal against Rybakina and in the 2025 semifinal to Andreeva.
First-Round Matches to Watch
(WC) Sloane Stephens (USA) v. Camila Osorio (COL)
Head-to-head: First Meeting
The 2017 US Open champion Stephens returns to Indian Wells 16 years after she beat Lucie Hradecka to earn her first Tour-level main draw win at the 2010 BNP Paribas Open. The 2019 US Open girls’ champion Osorio has posted wins over Alexandra Eala, Emma Raducanu and Donna Vekic this season.
Yulia Putintseva (KAZ) vs. Paula Badosa (ESP)
Head-to-head: Badosa leads 4-1
The 2021 Indian Wells champion Badosa has battled a chronic back issue, but when healthy still hits the ball clean and hard. The 28-year-old Spaniard is aiming to return to the Top 100. The prickly Putintseva, skilled at shifting spins and getting under an opponent’s skin, reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open.
Antonia Ruzic (CRO) vs. (WC) Jennifer Brady (USA)
Head-to-head: First Meeting
Though she stands just 5’6” Ruzic is a dangerous player with a bold two-handed backhand she used to push Naomi Osaka to three sets at the Australian Open. As a lucky loser, Ruzic knocked off two Grand Slam champion—Emma Raducanu and reigning AO champion Elena Rybakina—to reach the Dubai quarterfinals. Before a litany of knee injuries derailed her career, Brady owned arguably the heaviest topspin forehand in the sport—a shot the former UCLA standout used to reach a career-high ranking of No. 13 and reach the 2020 US Open semifinal and 2021 AO final.
Dark Horses Ready to Run
We’re defining dark horses as players <B>outside the Top 10 seeds</B>, therefore 10th-seeded Victoria Mboko, very capable of doing major damage here, does not qualify. <BR><BR>
No. 12 Belinda Bencic (SUI)
A 2019 Indian Wells semifinalist, Bencic beat Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff in three-setters to reach the Indian Wells quarterfinals last March. The former Olympic gold-medal champion Bencic thrives on hard courts, takes the ball early and at her best exhibits near Martina Hingis excellence off the two-handed backhand. If seeds hold true to form Bencic would meet 22nd-seeded Elise Mertens in a rematch of their epic United Cup match from January.
No. 13 Karolina Muchova (CZE)
A stylish all-court player, who can change pace and close net with conviction, Muchova should carry confidence after beating Victoria Mboko to win the biggest title of her career at the WTA 1000 in Doha. Former French Open finalist Muchova has reached semifinals or better in two of three tournaments this season and has looked sharp working with Sven Groeneveld, Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic’s former coach. Muchova is in world No. 2 Iga Swiatek’s quarter of the draw. Last year, Swiatek swept Muchova, 6-1, 6-1, in the Indian Wells round of 16.
No. 17 Clara Tauson (DEN)
It’s been an up and down season so far for Tauson, who opened the year with back-to-back first-round losses but has bounced back to reach semifinals at Abu Dhabi and quarterfinals in Dubai. IIndian Wells has not been a personal Paradise for Tauson, who is 3-3 lifetime in the desert including a crushing 3-6, 0-6 loss to eventual-champion Mirra Andreeva last year where the Russian carved her up. Still, Tauson’s serve, when it’s clicking, is one of the biggest in the game, she’s willing to live and die with the serve-first strike and if she can get through a couple of tough early rounds—she’s due to play the winner of the Paula Badosa vs. Yulia Putintseva opener—she certainly has the skills to do damage though her movement has been exploited on the slower Indian Wells courts in the past.
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