By Chris Oddo
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Marwan Naamani/AFP/Getty Images |
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(March 7, 2012) Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have been placed into the same half of the draw at Indian Wells for the first time, along with Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. In the other half, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray headline. Here’s a quick look at some of the finer points of the 2012 BNP Paribas Open draw, with a few picks thrown in for good measure.
Top Half:
Djokovic’s Quarter: It’s pretty hard to imagine Djokovic, barring some seriously lackluster play or a freak injury, not reaching the quarterfinals at Indian Wells. His most serious competition could come from either Kevin Anderson, Richard Gasquet or Florian Mayer. Gasquet and Anderson each own a single win against Nole, but neither came within the last three years.
Things will get tricky when it comes to deciding Djokovic’s possible quarterfinal matchup. Nicolas Almagro will likely play Kei Nishikori in the third round, and Andy Roddick will likely play Tomas Berdych. Keep in mind that world No. 31 Roddick owns winning records against both Ivo Karlovic and Berdych, his possible 2nd and 3rd round opponents. If he can maneuver by those two ball-bashers, then Roddick might just have the momentum he needs to make a run to the quarters. The 29-year-old was a finalist at Indian Wells just two short years ago, so it’s not entirely out of reach.
But if the seeds hold and Roddick is ousted, crowds won’t be disappointed at all when Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych take a crack at one another for the first time since their bitterly contested Australian Open round of 16 match. In that match Berdych cried foul when Almagro pegged him in the upper arm with a ball at the net, and refused to shake the Spaniard’s hand after the match.
Pick: Djokovic
Factoid: Eleven of Roddick’s fourteen sets played against Ivo Karlovic have been decided by tiebreakers, including the last six.
Murray’s Quarter: It’s simple: If Andy Murray is on his game, we’ll likely be looking at our third Djokovic-Murray tilt of 2012. The new and improved Murray, aided by his new coach Ivan Lendl, should have no problem gliding by the likes of Viktor Troicki, Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon, and when he does he’ll likely face either Mardy Fish or John Isner in the quarters, a task he’s more than capable of handling.
Fish, a former finalist at Indian Wells in 2008, is currently in dismal form. He’s won three of six matches on the year, but playing so close to his Los Angeles home could be just the tonic he needs to begin a revival of sorts. The 30-year-old is slated to meet fellow American John Isner in the fourth round should the seeds hold, and Fish owns a 3-1 edge in the head-to-head vs. Isner.
Pick: Murray
Factoid: Isner’s only win in four previous matches against Mardy Fish came on clay.
Bottom Half
Nadal’s Quarter: Rafael Nadal has a really favorable draw through the first four rounds. The highest possible seed he could see before the quarters is compatriot Feliciano Lopez (No. 15). Enigmatic Alexandr Dolgopolov could also cause a stir in Rafa’s section, but then again he could fade quietly into the desert night and not many would be surprised.
In the quarters, however, things could get very tricky for Rafa. He’ll likely play either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Janko Tipsarevic, each of whom possesses the big serve and the quick-strike game that could trouble Rafa in a best-of-three sets match, especially if the conditions are right.
A few possibly entertaining matches in this quarter are Tomic-Tipsarevic (round 2), Tsonga-Llodra (round 2) and Nalbandian-Cilic (round 2).
Pick: Tipsarevic
Factoid: In eight attempts, David Nalbandian has only made the quarterfinals at Indian Wells once.
Federer’s Quarter: The Swiss Maestro is going to have his hands full early on, as Roger Federer will likely face rocket-serving Canadian Milos Raonic in the third round. It remains to be seen whether Raonic is really as vastly improved as many believe him to be this year, as his best results in 2012 have come indoors on fast hard courts, but we’ll likely find out his true form after he faces Federer.
If he passes the Raonic test, Federer would then face Jurgen Melzer or Gael Monfils in the round of 16. Melzer is on a roll, and he did defeat Federer in their last head-to-head meeting in Monte Carlo, but beating Federer once is a lot different than beating him twice.
The quarters would look tough for most ATP players, but the fact that Federer owns a combined record of 20-2 against David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro (his most likely quarterfinal opponents) certainly bodes well for him. Still, if Del Potro and Ferrer meet in the round of 16 in what would be a rematch of their scintillating Davis Cup rubber of last December (which Ferrer won in 5), the winner would likely be high enough on momentum to believe that he could take Federer down in the quarters.
Pick: Federer
Factoid: The last time Federer won Indian Wells in 2006, his semifinal opponent was Paradorn Srichaphan.
Semis: Djokovic over Murray, Federer over Tipsarevic
Finals: Djokovic over Federer