By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Thursday January 9, 2025
How did Thursday's draw affect Aryna Sabalenka's chances of winning a third straight AO title? Read on for our take.
Photo Source: Robert Prange/Getty
The Australian Open draws have been revealed. Qualifiers and lucky losers placed. Now is the perfect time to take a look at how the draw might shape the Aussie Open fortnight on the women’s side.
First, here’s a look at the Australian Open women’s singles draw, with qualifiers place:
Scroll down for five takeaways from the women’s draw:
Top Half Gauntlet
It’s no secret. And to be expected. The top half of the women’s draw is loaded with in-form players.
So what does that mean for the heavy favorite and defending two-time champion, Aryna Sabalenka?
Sabalenka, who faces former Slam champion Sloane Stephens in her opening match, is in said top half with third-seeded Coco Gauff, who is one of the hottest players in women’s tennis. Other threats linger, such as China’s Zheng Qinwen, last year’s runner up, and Jessica Pegula, who reached the final of the last Slam she played in Flushing Meadows. Then there is Mirra Andreeva, the 17-year-old sensation, rising force Diana Shnaider, two-time champion Naomi Osaka, the ever dangerous Jelena Ostapenko, and three players who took significant strides in 2024 – Donna Vekic, Paula Badosa and Karolina Muchova. The list goes on…
But an in-form Sabalenka has the edge against all comers. She just has to play the same elevated tennis that allowed her to sweep the hard court majors in 2024. A tall ask, to be sure, especially given the challenges she is sure to face. Is she up for it? Time will tell…
Were the draw gods kind to Iga?
On the lower half we have Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina anchoring the quarters. This looks like a good place to land for Swiatek, given how well she played against Rybakina at United Cup. So we’ll say, yes, the draw Gods have treated Iga well. Better than last year, surely.
The Pole, who attained a career-best semifinal at the Australian Open in 2022, doesn’t exactly have it easy, but if she’s in form, her path to the second week and beyond is manageable. She opens with Katerina Siniakova (the World No.1 doubles player who is ranked 46 in singles), and could face hard-hitting Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round (Swiatek is 2-2 lifetime against the Russian on hard courts). If seeds hold Swiatek would face Anna Kalinskaya in the round of 16. Swiatek’s potential quarterfinal opponent is American Emma Navarro, the No.8 seed. There is definitely a pathway forward for Swiatek as she hunts for her first Grand Slam final at a venue other than Roland Garros since the 2022 US Open final, but it is not as simple as some make it out to be.
Round 1 popcorn
Ready for a rematch? Last year Naomi Osaka was shuttled out of the Australian Open in round one by Caroline Garcia, but the Japanese will have a chance to exact revenge over the Frenchwoman as they meet in one of many first-round clashes to die for.
Coco Gauff, who was ousted by Sofia Kenin during the latter’s run to the AO title in 2020, will face Kenin again in round one. It should be noted that Kenin stunned Gauff in the first round at Wimbledon in 2023…
An all-American clash between Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns will keep college tennis fans immersed, while Mirra Andreeva’s battle with Czech Marie Bouzkova should be a cracker as well.
And don’t sleep on Jelena Ostapenko’s first-round tilt with Belinda Bencic. They’ve split two meetings, with Bencic taking out the Latvian in Melbourne in 2020. Bencic is playing her first major since giving birth to her baby Bella in April of last year.
Sabalenka’s challenge
Is it Aryna Sabalenka’s challenge, or is it the rest of the field’s challenge? How to derail the best hard court player in women’s tennis was a mystery at the majors in 2024, as Sabalenka won titles in Melbourne and Flushing Meadows, but she’ll have to pass some significant tests this year – with a target on her back.
It’s easy to overreact to Sabalenka’s opening match against Sloane Stephens, but Sabalenka appears to have the American’s number. She’s 5-0 against her and even defeated her on clay at Roland-Garros last year. But a potential third-rounder with either Clara Tauson or Linda Noskova could be tricky, and a potential fourth-rounder with Mirra Andreeva will most certainly be a battle. Sabalenka just defeated Andreeva in straight sets in Brisbane, but remember she fell to the Russian teen in the quarterfinals at Roland-Garros last year – while suffering from illness it should be said.
Sabalenka could face Zheng Qinwen in the quarters and Coco Gauff in the semis, so that’s a lot of potential stress just to get back to the final. That said, stress has not been much of a limiting factor for Sabalenka at the majors of late, she seems to have the Grand Slam game figured out.
Osaka’s got it rough
2025 could very well represent the next step in Naomi Osaka’s comeback to elite status, but to make strides in Melbourne she’ll have to be hot from the get-go. She faces Garcia in a rematch of last year’s opening-round loss, then could face Karolina Muchova in round two. Muchova knocked Osaka out of the US Open last year in straight sets. Osaka pulled out of the Auckland final last week due to an ab strain, and if she’s not right in Melbourne her days in the Happy Slam could end quickly.