By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Friday September 6, 2024

New York—And then there were two – and two of them were American. The women’s final is set at the 2024 US Open. Let’s have a closer look at this mouthwatering matchup between two-time Grand Slam champion Aryna Sabalenka and first-time finalist Jessica Pegula.



Sabalenka vs Pegula
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka leads 5-2
Key Stat: Sabalenka has hit 23 return winners in her six matches, more than any other players.
Key Stat # 2: Sabalenka is holding serve in 89 percent of her service games, compared to 80 percent for Pegula.
Key Stat # 3: Sabalenka is 26-1 in her last 27 hard court matches at the majors and is bidding to become the first player to sweep both hard court majors in the same season since Angelique Kerber in 2016.

The Matchup

Sabalenka scored a win in the pair’s most recent matchup at the Cincinnati Open, and has taken five of seven from Pegula, but if you take out clay, where Sabalenka is 3-0 against Pegula, the head-to-head looks level at two apiece.

After earning a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Pegula in Cincinnati, where she snapped the American’s nine-match winning streak, Sabalenka hinted that she was not yet at her peak form.

"I would say that I'm really playing great tennis," Sabalenka said, "Probably not the best tennis I can play, but I'm definitely getting there. And with every match I play, I feel better, better and better and hopefully at the US Open, I can keep building the level, and I can reach maybe even higher level than I used to play."

She does appear to have found another gear, and that will make things difficult for Pegula in her first major final. Sabalenka has held serve in 51 of 57 service games through six matches at the Open, and has gone through three of her matches without being broken.

Pegula will have to find ways to disrupt Sabalenka’s serving rhythm. Pegula has broken serve 25 times in 59 service games against high-level competition, a good sign. She’s also won 42 percent of her first-serve return points, but that will be a bigger challenge against Sabalenka’s high octane game.

For Sabalenka, the key will be to continue playing ruthless against her opponent’s second serve. She has won 63 percent of second serve return points, while Pegula has won just 49 percent of her second-serve points.

It will be imperative to keep her first serve percentage high. She has done that in her last two matches, serving at 65 percent vs Swiatek and 67 percent on Thursday against Muchova.


What they’re saying:

Pegula on the Sabalenka challenge: “Obviously she's a really great hard court player, if not one of the best in the world, but I think I'm also a really good hard court player. Cincinnati, she served unbelievable, and I felt like I still had chances in that match.

“So hopefully she doesn't serve that good Saturday. Maybe a little bit less would be nice.

“But I think I know that I can have a game that can possibly frustrate her. I just have to be aggressive, I have to get her moving, serve smart, and try and put some pressure on her serve. “Play within myself, pick my spots, you know, I want to say aggressive, but, you know, not overdo it.”

Pegula on reaching her first Slam final: “It's amazing. It's a childhood dream. It's what I wanted when I was a kid. It's a lot of work, a lot of hard work put in. You couldn't even imagine how much goes into it.

“It would mean the world to me obviously. I'm just happy to be in a final, but obviously I come here to want to win the title. You know, if you would have told me at the beginning of the year I'd be in the finals of the US Open, I would have laughed so hard, because that just was where my head was, was not thinking that I would be here.

“So to be able to overcome all those challenges and say that I get a chance at the title Saturday is what we play for as players, let alone being able to do that in my home country here, in my home slam. It's perfect, really.”



Sabalenka on breaking through in NYC: “Every time I'm coming back here, I have this positive thinking, like, Come, on, maybe this time. Every time I'm hoping that one day I'll be able to hold that beautiful trophy.

“You know, tough losses never – how to say? – like, makes me feel depressed. [I’m never] thinking of not coming back to the tournament. It only motivates me to come back and to try one more time, try harder and maybe, work harder on some things which maybe didn't work in the past. I'm still hoping to hold that beautiful trophy.”
Sabalenka on facing Pegula: “We had a lot of great battles in the past, really difficult, tight matches. She playing really incredible tennis. We played recently in Cincinnati. Was really tough match, even though I closed the match in two sets, but still it wasn't that easy.

“She's playing her best tennis, I would say, and feels like she's back on track.”