By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Friday January 27, 2023

Imagine a picture of a tennis ball that has been chewed to oblivion by a german shepherd for a few days. It lies lifeless, with puncture wounds, all the pressure gone from the crumpled ball.



We might see a few of those balls on Saturday in Melbourne after Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka get through with them. This eagerly anticipated duel of 6’0” power players is sure to sparkle and pop and, as the saying goes: poor, poor tennis ball.

But Saturday’s Australian Open women’s singles final will be about more than pure power. There will be tactics at play, advantages sought, and pressure on many levels, to be dealt with or not.

Without any further due, let’s take a closer look at the first women’s singles Grand Slam final of 2023.

[5] Aryna Sabalenka vs [22] Elena Rybakina
Head-to-Head: Sabelenka leads 3-0
Previous Grand Slam finals: Rybakina, 1-0 (Wimbledon 2022), Sabalenka (first final)
2022 records: Sabalenka 10-0, 1 title | Rybakina 7-2, 0 titles

Their previous matches and what they say about them

Sabalenka has defeated Rybakina in three sets in each of their three meetings, in 2019 at Wuhan (QF, 6-3, 1-6, 6-1), in 2021 at Abu Dhabi (QF, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3) and at Wimbledon (round of 16, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3).

Clearly they are evenly matched, with Sabalenka enjoying the edge when push comes to shove. But 2021 is a long time ago. Since then Rybakina has become a Grand Slam champion and that fact cannot be underestimated.

This is what Sabalenka said after her third victory over Rybakina at Wimbledon, in 2021: “Against Elena it's really important to serve well because she's serving really well. It's really tough to do something on her serve.”

Rybakina, meanwhile, says she’ll need to focus more on hitting her spots than hitting pure pace against Sabalenka.

“It's going to be a tough battle,” she said on Thursday after defeating Victoria Azarenka in the semis. “I think as today maybe I will not have to serve that big, that fast, so it doesn't really matter the speed. It's important to have a good placement on the serve.”

Sabalenka, on the difference between her power and Rybakina’s power

The Belarusian believes that she hits more topspin than Rybakina, but otherwise doesn’t see much difference between herself and the 23-year-old Rybakina.

Asked if there is a difference between their power, Sabalenka said the following: “I think it's just different. Like she plays a little bit, like, flat, maybe [I] spin a little bit more.”

That difference will allow Sabalenka to hit to bigger targets and try to expose Rybakina's footwork a bit. But it will also give Rybakina a little more time to wind up and time the ball.

Two calm players, but in a different way...

Rybakina seems to have been born with ice in her veins, but fiery Sabalenka has had to work extremely hard to quell her fire. It is the secret to her success in Melbourne: her ability to not sabotage herself with nerves or negative energy. After a trying 2022 campaign in which she suffered well-documented struggles with her serve and her confidence, Sabalenka has shored up her mental fortress and presents as a more mature, determined – and even keel – player.

“Right now I’m a little bit more calm on court,” Sabalenka said. “I think I really believe that this is the only thing that was missing in my game. If I can keep that focus and that calm on court, I can get through it.”

She will need to be on Saturday, because there is very little panic in Rybakina's game.

Sabalenka believes that her sense of calm is the reason she has been able to plow through the Grand Slam semifinal barrier. Now that she has the positive reinforcement and is into the final, expect her to be very confident on Saturday.

“I think that I lost those three semi-finals just because I wasn’t really calm on court,” she said. “I was overdoing things. I really wanted to get this Slam. I was rushing a lot. I was nervous a lot. Screaming, doing all this stuff.”

What else is Sabalenka doing well?

Sabalenka, who has not lost a single set this season, says that everything in her game is trending north.

“I think my movement is a little bit better. I got a little bit better touch. I don't know,” she said. “I worked a lot on everything. I think all aspects of my game have improved a little bit.”

It's just a matter know of prolonging the wave and riding it to the finish line.

What can Rybakina do to disrupt her?

Rybakina has to make a high percentage of first serves, play consistently well, and follow up her serves and return with confident aggression. She did that for the most part against Azarenka, but there was a moment where she missed 11 consecutive first serves, and other points in the match where she was a bit passive.

She’ll have to get on the front foot quickly against Sabalenka, who has the movement advantage and will pin Rybakina behind the baseline if she isn’t assertive.

“Overall I think on the baseline I was playing really well,” she said of her semifinal victory over Azarenka. “I was trying to come forward. I think I just need to keep on doing the same thing, no matter the conditions.”

In this high-stakes affair, execution will be paramount. Both players possess the capacity to frustrate opponents by taking the racquet out of their hand, but they’ll need to be playing at a high-level to do it against a mirror image of themselves.