By Chris Oddo | Monday June 20, 2016
With less than a week ahead of Wimbledon's first ball, we take a look at some developing grass storylines.
Photo Source: Mercedes Cup
Wimbledon’s just around the corner—qualies started today, so download that app NOW—and we’ve seen two weeks of grass court tennis come and go. So, what have we learned? Who’s hot and who’s not? Which players are ailing and which players are in fine physical fettle?
Allow us to run down a few of the developing storylines for you here:
1. Dominic Thiem can play on grass
The Austrian was 2-6 on grass before he played Stuttgart two weeks ago. Despite his recent rise and the fact that Thiem is the most improved player on the ATP Tour this season (47-12 with four titles and five finals—YOWZA), much of the talk was about the Austrian’s lack of experience and prowess on the green stuff. They said: His court positioning is too defensive… He’s not a natural mover on the surface… He’s not very great at the net…
We say: How about three strikes and you’re out? Thiem, brimming with confidence earned on the clay, showed up for grass court season and looked very comfortable on the surface. He served and volleyed. He half-volleyed and scrambled. He dive-volleyed and fist-pumped. He struck the ball with authority and used his power and the tremendous amount of “work” he puts on the ball to his advantage. Not much really seemed to change about Thiem’s court positioning in baseline rallies, but what has changed is the perception that Thiem’s style of baseline play won’t work on the grass. He wasn’t just effective. He was incredibly effective. Thiem saved two match points to defeat Roger Federer (a.k.a probably the best grass player in the history of tennis) in Stuttgart and won his first title on the surface. At Halle he reached the semis before petering out and falling to Florian Mayer.
Thiem will head to Wimbledon with a Top-10 seed, a 6-1 grass-court record on the season, and the commodity that works well on any surface—confidence. He should be a real threat to go deep at Wimbledon, just like he was in Paris.
2. American Women Poised for Grass Success
American women have been led by the Williams sisters at Wimbledon and everywhere else for the last two decades. That’s still true this year, but a new crop of emerging elites has been honing its grass-court chops quite nicely and looks ready for a big breakout.
Madison Keys is the first name that comes to mind, and for good reason. The 21-year-old claimed the prestigious Birmingham title and now owns a mighty impressive 22-6 lifetime record on grass with two titles. Already a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon last year, could Keys be ready to push further on?
Also looking lethal on grass has been CoCo Vandeweghe. The 24-year-old comes in at a career-high ranking of 29 in the world and will be seeded at Wimbledon for the first time. Vandeweghe owns a lifetime 25-12 record on grass and she’s earned two titles on the surface and reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year just like Keys.
The American women also boast depth. Sloane Stephens, another former Wimbledon quarterfinalist, has not played on grass yet this year but is in the midst of a career year on tour with three titles to her name. There’s also the grass-loving Alison Riske, the coming-of-age Shelby Rogers, and the ever feisty Madison Brengle, among others. The Americans placed four in the second week at Roland Garros. At Wimbledon there could be even more than that.
3. Roger Federer is in a much better place than he was three weeks ago
There’s a dark side to Roger Federer’s 2016—the knee surgery, the bad back, the limited play, the rust—but there’s also a bright side. Federer is as healthy as he has been since January, and while he has yet to take the world by storm on grass, he has shown signs of life in his two Wimbledon tune-up events. No, the maestro wasn’t in top form. Yes, his play was patchy at times. But what did we expect? Federer is rushing himself back to fitness because he knows that if he can get into top form by early next week, he’ll have a chance to make a deep Wimbledon run and put all this gloom and doom behind him.
There were moments during his seven matches over the last two weeks where Federer demonstrated physicality and an explosive burst. There were others where he looked a step slow and a tad rusty. But given the circumstances, this is to be expected. The maestro will use the week off to tack on an extra layer of fitness, ramp up his serve and lock in his groundies. It may be a little soon to expect another Grand Slam final from him, but then again these last two weeks might have been the perfect tonic. He got an up-close and personal scouting report of two of the rising forces in men’s tennis, and he got an idea of just how far off he is from peak form. Expect him to be vastly improved in seven days’ time.
4. Injured, Rusty, Out of Form
Belinda Bencic made her long awaited return from a two-month back injury by reaching the semis at ‘s-Hertogenbosch. But she injured her thigh in Birmingham and had to retire from her first-round match. Unless she can produce a good result in Eastbourne, she’ll head to Wimbledon with zero momentum... Victoria Azarenka pulled out of Nottingham with a knee injury and hasn’t played since. Her health will once again be a question mark at Wimbledon… Kei Nishikori pulled out of Halle with a strained oblique. Nishikori withdrew from Wimbledon in 2015 after a round, could he be headed for the same fate again? … Jo-Wilfried Tsonga pulled out of Queen’s with the adductor injury that sabotaged him at Roland Garros, but he was recently seen practicing with Garbine Muguruza for whatever that’s worth… Simona Halep pulled out of Birmingham with an Achilles flare-up and will play Wimbledon with no grass tune-up… Grigor Dimitrov isn’t injured but the former Wimbledon semifinalist will head to SW19 on a six-match losing streak… Juan Martin del Potro played back-to-back weeks for the first time at Stuttgart and Queen’s, and the big man will be a dangerous floater in the Wimbledon draw.
5. Who’s hot, who’s not?
Hot: Caroline Garcia won her first grass title, taking the Mallorca title on Sunday.
CoCo Vandeweghe and Madison Keys, for aforementioned reasons (see No.1).
Andy Murray claimed a record 5th title at Queen’s Club and looks ready to push his way back to the Wimbledon final. Could he possibly win it for a second time? Why not? Oh, a certain someone named Nole.
Alexander Zverev, at a career-high ranking of 28, will be seeded at Wimbledon for the first time. His big game is well-suited for grass and he proved it when he made the Halle final.
Former Wimbledon girls’ singles champ Jelena Ostapenko knocked off Petra Kvitova at Birmingham. You knock off Petra on grass and you are officially hot in our book.
Kristina Mladenovic reached the ‘s-Hertogenbosch final and has gone 13-5 on grass since the beginning of 2015.
Milos Raonic fell to Andy Murray at Queen’s in the final, but the Canadian looks primed for another Wimbledon run.
Nicolas Mahut will once again be a dangerous floater at Wimbledon. He won the ‘s-Hertogenbosch title and pushed Andy Murray to two tiebreakers at Queen’s.
Carla Suarez Navarro and Barbora Strycova both looked very strong at Birmingham—before they faced Madison Keys, that is.
Who’s Not:
David Ferrer went 2-2 in grass tune-ups and seems to be lacking his trademark snarl in 2016.
Hard to tell from just one match, but Nick Kyrgios was uneven and uninspired in his three-set loss to Milos Raonic at Queen’s. He’ll need to find that fire at Wimbledon to go deep. He’s certainly capable of it.
Like Kyrgios, Stan Wawrinka will have to make his improvements in practice. The two-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist lost his first-round match at Queen’s to Fernando Verdasco.