By Richard Pagliaro
NEW YORK—Novak Djokovic scaled mental mountains winning Wimbledon.
The Flushing Meadows landscape pops with challenging crests—including a possible semifinal showdown with Roger Federer—when Djokovic launches his US Open title defense.
Osaka: As Healthy As I Can Be
The US Open draws were conducted today outside Arthur Ashe Stadium.
The top-seeded Serbian and third-seeded Swiss are on course for a seventh US Open meeting though there’s a lot of work both must do to get there.
Playing for his fourth US Open crown, Djokovic is aiming to defend Flushing Meadows for the first time and knows the trip will be daunting.
“You have that additional pressure and expectation, but over time you get used to it,” Djokovic said of defending a Grand Slam. “The more you win, the more you get used to it. At the same time, it’s always a paramount challenge to defend a Grand Slam title.
“Obviously Grand Slams are the tournaments that matter the most in our sport. So this is where you want to shine. This is where you want to play your best.”
The Big 4—Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, who is not playing New York—have combined to capture 16 of the last 17 Grand Slam titles with only Stan Wawrinka’s 2016 US Open championship breaking that major mastery.
Look for one of the Big 3 to reign again.
Our Top 5 Takeaways from the US Open men's draw.
Djokovic’s Dangers
Familiar faces, former Davis Cup teammates—including Janko Tipsarevic and Dusan Lajovic—and a few threats with heavy firepower occupy Djokovic’s top quarter.
While there will be tough tests, consider Djokovic is riding a streak of 11 consecutive appearances contesting the US Open semifinals or better.
The world No. 1 opens vs. Roberto Carballes Baena then could encounter three opponents who have toppled him in big matches before.
Sam Querrey, who stunned Djokovic in the 2016 Wimbledon third round, could loom in round two. Djokovic swept the big-serving American at the 2014 US Open.
No. 23 seed Stan Wawrinka, who upset Djokovic in the 2016 US Open final, is a possible third-round opponent with fifth-seeded Russian Daniil Medvedev potentially standing as the Serbian’s quarterfinal foe.
The red-hot Medvedev leads the ATP in victories (44) this season, including a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 upset of Djokovic in the Cincinnati semifinals en route to his first Masters 1000 championship at the Western & Southern Open.
Medvedev, who tested Djokovic in a four-set Australian Open fourth-round loss in January, is 6-5 vs. Top 10 opponents this season.
Nadal’s Prime Path
Rafael Nadal skipped Cincinnati and showed be pleased with the view he finds in Queens.
The reigning Roland Garros champion will not have to play Djokovic or Federer until the final.
Rafa craves repetition and should get it in his opening-round match against John Millman, who upset Federer at the 2018 US Open.
Though the king of clay’s bottom quarter pops with punishing servers, including 14th-seeded John Isner and 2014 champion Marin Cilic, both possible fourth-round opponents, the Spaniard has a clear sightline to the quarterfinal.
Sixth-seeded Alexander Zverev, who admits his confidence “below zero” following his split with coach Ivan Lendl and growing double-fault misery, would face Nadal in the quarterfinals if the seeds hold true to form. But Zverev’s current struggles, combined with the fact he’s managed just four wins in four prior Flushing Meadows appearances, make Karen Khachanov Nadal’s most likely quarterfinal opponent.
Nadal has won all six meetings with the explosive Russian, including a 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 7-6 thriller at the 2018 US Open.
Federer: Good News & Bad News
Slashing his forehand practicing vs. Dominic Thiem on Grandstand today, Roger Federer looked fit and played fast.
The good news for Fed fans?
The five-time US Open champion can ease his way into the field opening against a qualifier with a second-round match against either Damir Dzumhur or another qualifier.
On paper, the first week is manageable for the 20-time Grand Slam champion. If the seeds hold true to form, Federer would face 25th-seeded Frenchman Lucas Pouille, an Australian Open semifinalist in January, with a potential fourth-rounder vs. 15th-seeded David Goffin. Though Goffin upset Federer at the ATP Finals a couple of years ago, the Swiss owns an 8-1 lifetime record vs. the Belgian baseliner.
Former US Open finalist Kei Nishikori, 21st-seeded Milos Raonic, who is dangerous but often injured, and 12th-seeded Borna Coric, who has posed problems for Federer in the past, are all in this section.
The bad news: Federer hasn’t won the US Open in 11 years, he’s lost his last three US Open meetings with Djokovic, including the 2015 final, and has played just two matches since the world No. 1 denied two championship points out-dueling the Swiss, 7-6 (5), 1-6, 7-6 (4), 4-6, 13-12 (3) to successfully defend his Wimbledon title in the longest men’s final—and first men’s major final decided in a fifth-set tie breaker.
Does Federer have enough hard-court match play before the Open? Will be suffer any lingering emotional hangover coming so close to his 21st Grand Slam title only to see Djokovic snatch it away and does the 38-year-old Federer have enough gas in the tank to take down his two greatest rivals—Djokovic and Rafael Nadal—in succession if required to win the Open?
Revival or Regression?
Several dangerous players will face stress tests early while fighting to get major careers back on track.
Washington, D.C. champion Nick Kyrgios faces former USC all-American Stevie Johnson in what could be an entertaining opener. The enigmatic Kyrgios blew up in Cincinnati spewing F-bombs, hurling his racquet around the court and even firing his water bottle at the chair umpire’s seat.
Which Nick will show up in New York? It will be fun to find out—and interesting to see if Mo Layhani is in the chair for any of the volatile Aussie’s matches.
Former world 3 Grigor Dimitrov plays Andreas Seppi in the first round as the Bulgarian, who has battled shoulder and serving woes, tries to rebuild his career.
Jack Sock, who won the US Open doubles title with Mike Bryan last year, was sidelined six months after undergoing thumb surgery. Sock plays tough veteran Pablo Cuevas in his opener.
Fresh off the Cincinnati semifinals, former US Open semifinalist Richard Gasquet takes on massive-serving Italian Matteo Berrettini in the opening round.
Three years ago, Gael Monfils reached his first US Open semifinals. The 13th-seeded Monfils has looked eager and excited throughout this week of practice and could be a factor in the third quarter.
First-Rounders To Watch
(18) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Denis Shapovalov—Former roommates face off in Flushing for the second year in a row. Last year, the left-handed Shapovalov was up 7-5, 5-7, 4-1 when Auger-Aliassime was forced to retire. This time, the 19-year-old Auger-Aliassime arrives in New York as the Canadian No. 1 and his nation’s best shot to go deep though the talented all-court threat has gone just 3-3 and struggled with double-fault issues since Wimbledon.
The 38th-ranked Shapovalov had not won back-to-back matches since his run to the Miami semifinals in March, but he’s scored successive wins in Winston-Salem this week while rebuilding his confidence working with former world No. 8 Mikhail Youzhny on a trial basis.
(8) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Andrey Rublev—The athletic Greek used his all-court skills to surge to the Australian Open semifinals in January, while the flat-hitting Rublev upset Wawrinka and Federer in succession in Cincinnati and beat then world No. 9 Grigor Dimitrov en route to the 2017 US Open quarterfinals.
(28) Nick Kyrgios vs. Steve Johnson—For all his wondrous gifts, Kyrgios has come up flat in Flushing Meadows failing to surive the first round in three of six career appearances. Johnson, who held a 7-6 lead when Kyrgios retired from their lone prior meeting in Shanghai, has not been past the US Open second round since 2012. Both figure to be motivated though with Kyrgios you just never know and apparently neither does he.