By Chris Oddo | Thursday May 4, 2017
Nothing is possible without optimism. That’s what Angelique Kerber wrote in a recent in a recent piece for Porsche, before playing the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix and putting up another predictably disappointing result.
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As the clay season kicks into high gear next week, it’s difficult to think that Kerber really is optimistic about her season anymore (but good on her keeping the faith). Her rise to the top of tennis last season was so swift and stunning that many of us assumed that Kerber would stay on top of the world for another season—maybe longer.
But as swiftly as Kerber climbed the WTA rankings in 2016, seemingly floating on some magical jet stream from tournament to tournament, winning 63 matches, including two Grand Glams, she has fallen back down to earth. Gravity is back in Kerber’s life, and it keeps weighing on her in 2017.
Is there any relief in sight? Will we ever see the German defend the court in all her fiery fury, the way she did last season?
After four months of uncharacteristically average results, it’s difficult to know what’s next for Kerber. What’s strangest about the southpaw’s current slump is not her overall record. That sits at 17-10 and it’s really not all that bad. I mean we expected some type of hangover this year from the German, and we all know depth of the WTA’s talent field makes those hangovers even more stupefying. The record is fine, all things considered, but it’s the German’s inability to beat anybody good that is killing her right now. She’s gone just 1-10 against players ranked 35 or higher this season; last year she went 32-13 against such competition.
That is utterly remarkable; to go from winning 71 percent against the highest quality competition on tour to winning just nine percent is so #UnKerberlike. It’s even stranger if you like at Kerber vs. the Top 20. Last year she was 24-9 against players ranked 20 or higher; this year she is 0-7. And we aren’t talking about tough draws. It’s not like Kerber had to play Serena Williams in three finals, Pliskova on a fast hardcourt or Muguruza on clay. This is Kerber losing to Elina Svitolina three times in a row (no offense to the rising Ukrainian whatsoever). This is Kerber, the player that led the WTA in Top 10 wins with 12 last season, dropping a straight-setter to Elena Vesnina at Indian Wells, then dropping another straight-setter to Kristina Mladenovic while defending her Stuttgart title (again, no offense).
"It was one of the worst matches I've played in months," Kerber told reporters after falling to the Frenchwoman in Stuttgart. "It was not my day. From the beginning I was not feeling my game."
The truth is that the last four months have featured a lot of similarly head-scratching clunkers of that ilk for the current World No.2. It’s strange to see Kerber, seemingly on an uphill climb for so long, tumbling down like this. Perhaps one big win will help her flick the switch and believe again. Belief was a big part of her rise. Last year when she finally figured out how good she could be it seemed as if she could not lose. Close matches, tough opponents, big venues, small venues—didn’t matter. Kerbs was brimming for a fight and more times than not she was primed for a win.
Kerber’s struggles against the Top 20 are pretty real, and we can see that in her stats. She’s only held serve 54 percent of the time in her seven matches against the Top 20, and she’s only broken serve 25 percent of the time in those matches. Seems strange that her numbers could be so low (none of the Top 20 players she has faced this season are currently inside the Top 10).
Strange, yet true.
Which makes us wonder… Could Kerber be injured? Fighting through a shoulder injury, or just worn down by all the miles she put on her body in 2016? It would make sense. She fought through a knee injury to make one of her best results of the season, a semifinal in Dubai in late February, and if there was ever a player who needed her legs to drive her play, it would be Kerber. She’s a counter-puncher with a game that relies heavily on fitness and defense. Take that ability away from her and, well, she’s not the same player.
Whatever the reason—injury or confidence—Kerber is a player that can be dangerous again if she clears the current hurdles. And the good news? She is still No.2 in the world in spite of it all, and with a very good chance to get back to No.1. And she’s only 11th in the Road to Singapore standings—not too bad, all things considered.
But Kerber might not be ranked that high for long, unless she finds some solutions. Kerber has been in the Top 10 nonstop since September of 2015, but with so many points to defend between now and the end of the season, she’ll have to stop this big-match freefall and reclaim the magic that made her such an electrifying player in 2016.
In a span of 16 months, Kerber has gone from hunter to hunted and back again to hunter. Has she gotten all her nervous, tentative tennis out of her system and will she begin the hunt again this summer? It tough to say. Gravity can be tough on a tennis player once it gets a hold on them, and as talented as we all know that Kerber is, she doesn’t appear to be a player ready to rise again.
Let the waiting—and wondering—begin.