By Richard Pagliaro | Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Grigor Dimitrov has posted a 16-2 record winning two titles in four tournaments this season.
Photo credit: Jared Wickerham/BNP Paribas Open
Clear skies and a majestic mountain backdrop make Indian Wells one of the most alluring tournaments in tennis.
A beautiful backdrop hasn’t exactly been a promising picture for dark horses.
Watch: Djokovic, Federer, Nadal All In IW Quarter of Death
The BNP Paribas Open is touted as the unofficial fifth Grand Slam, its honor roll of champions abounding with players whose fingerprints are all over major silverware.
Five-time champion Novak Djokovic is playing for his fourth consecutive Indian Wells crown crammed in a quarter with three-time champion Rafael Nadal, who has also won a pair of doubles titles at the tournament with Marc Lopez, and four-time champion Roger Federer, who returns after missing 2016 following arthroscopic knee surgery.
Together, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal have combined to claim 12 of the last 13 Indian Wells titles. The only other champion in that span—2010 title winner Ivan Ljubcic, who beat Djokovic, Nadal and Andy Roddick en route to this first Masters crown—is now firmly ensconced in Federer’s camp as a coach.
While many eyes will be fixed on the three former champions as well as world No. 1 Andy Murray’s quest to win his first BNP Paribas Open title, we’re highlighting four Non Top-10 seeds—one from each quarter of the draw—capable of going deep in the draw.
Here are our picks for dangerous outsiders poised to do damage in the desert.
No. 11 David Goffin
2016 Indian Wells Result: Semifinals, lost to Milos Raonic.
Best Indian Wells Result: Semifinals, 2016.
2017 Record: 13-5
Ad In: Quick feet, precise groundstrokes and the unsettling skill at creating sharp angles and driving the ball down the line are all Goffin assets he’s put to good use in Indian Wells. Contesting his 20th career Masters event, Goffin scored successive wins over a pair of Grand Slam champions—he toppled Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka in a three-set thriller before downing US Open champion Marin Cilic—to advance to his first Masters semifinal in the desert last year.
The accurate baseliner has already contested two finals this season and should carry plenty of confidence into Indian Wells. Goffin is eighth on the ATP Tour in return games won (29 percent), which is ahead of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Goffin’s section of the draw is filled with clay-courters though he could face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in a fourth-round rematch of the Rotterdam final. The pair are partners in the doubles draw. Goffin's ball-control skills are special; he understands how to cut off angles with his footwork and create angles with fine racquet work.
Ad Out: The pressure of defending 720 ranking points this month after his runs to successive semifinals in Indian Wells and Miami last year could pose stress on the 5-foot-11 Belgian. Goffin is not a physical specimen and can be overpowered by heavy hitters as Sam Querrey showed in Acapulco last week after Jo-Wilfried Tsonga hit through the Belgian during the final two sets of the Rotterdam final. Transitioning from European indoor conditions to sometime scorching desert heat can be a challenge for one of the slighter players in the Top 20.
No. 12 Grigor Dimitrov
2016 Indian Wells Result: First round, lost to Alexander Zverev.
Best Indian Wells Result: Third round, 2013-2015.
2017 Record: 16-2
Ad In: Playing dynamic all-court tennis, Dimitrov is off to the best start of his career winning two titles—Brisbane and Sofia—in four tournament starts, scoring three Top 10 wins and pushing Rafael Nadal in a pulsating five-set semifinal loss at the Australian Open. The slower, grittier Indian Wells hard court should accept the varied spins the Bulgarian can produce, he’s striking his serve and forehand with vigor and has moved exceptionally well this season. During his 2016 slide, Dimitrov too often relied on his speed, defensive skills and slice backhand. This year, he’s held his ground closer to the baseline, played more proactive tennis and has been willing to drive the backhand down the line as he did in the thriller vs. Nadal.
Ad Out: In five career appearances in Palm Springs, Dimitrov has yet to win back-to-back matches and has yet to beat a Top 30-ranked opponent in the desert. The 25-year-old Bulgarian could collide with Jack Sock in the third round. The 17th-seeded Sock, who also has two titles to his credit in 2017, has won two of three career meetings with Dimitrov effectively hammering his heavy inside-out forehand to the Bulgarian's one-handed backhand and challenging him to create from that wing.
No. 15 Nick Kyrgios
2016 Indian Wells Result: First round, lost to Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Best Indian Wells Result: Second round, 2015.
2017 Record: 7-3
Ad In: The explosive Kyrgios crushed 25 aces disarming top-seeded Novak Djokovic in an impressive Acapulco victory. He is sixth on the ATP in service games held this season. When you see the fluid power and eye-popping shotmaking oozing from the enigmatic Aussie it makes you think if Kyrgios ever committed to a disciplined approach, hired an experienced coach, minimized patches of self-indulgent shotmaking and actually enjoyed himself on court once in a while this guy could be a world beater. Kyrgios is at his best on big stages against elite players—he’s a rare player who won his first meetings with Djokovic, Federer and Nadal—yet can look completely disinterested and disengaged in early-round matches on outer courts when he’s not preoccupied feuding with fans or umpires.
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Ad Out: If Kyrgios starts slow, lapses into his “I don’t like tennis" shtick or just isn’t in the mood to compete even an exorcist can’t help him navigate the ominous “Quarter of Death”, which some call the toughest quarter in Masters history. Kyrgios could play ultra-talented Alexander Zverev in the third round with a potential rematch with reigning champion Djokovic looming in the round of 16 and the winner of that match potentially facing Federer or Nadal in the quarterfinals. Oddly, that possible gauntlet of champions could actually inspire concentration and commitment from Kyrgios though predicting this confounding character's mood swings is as challenging as returning his serve.
No. 20 John Isner
2016 Indian Wells Result: Round of 16, lost to Kei Nishikori.
Best Indian Wells Result: Final, 2012.
2017 Record: 4-4
Ad In: Dry desert conditions and the lighter balls of the BNP Paribas Open have benefited the menacing-serving Isner in the past. The 6-foot-11 tower of power has reached at least the round of 16 in four of his last five trips to Palm Springs. In his last Masters appearance, the then 27th-ranked Isner knocked off Sock and Marin Cilic in succession and fought Andy Murray to three sets in the BNP Paribas Masters final in Paris last November. It's a reminder that regardless of his mediocre record, when Isner is hot on serve he's still a volatile threat. Residing in the second quarter of the draw removed from the cluster of champions in reigning champion Djokovic’s section, Isner has a favorable draw. The first possible seed he could face is No. 10 Gael Monfils, who has split eight career meetings with the former all American at Georgia. If Isner can open his game up a bit, follow that crackling forehand to net on occasion and minimize lapses into the slump-shouldered, sweaty hang-dog disposition he sometimes displays, especially on hot days, he can navigate the first week.
Ad Out: The big man has showed little to suggest a major Masters run is coming. Three of Isner’s for losses this season have come to lower-ranked compatriots and his fourth came from squandering a two-set lead to Mischa Zverev in Melbourne. Six weeks away from his 32nd birthday, Isner has yet to win back-to-back matches this year and while he’s been a strong tie break player in his career (.620 career tie break winning percentage), he’s posted a 4-5 tie break record in 2017. Isner has worked to sharpen his volley and net skills but is often reluctant to impose the front-court game at critical stages. Long John tends to play the predictable inside-out forehand pattern and remains vulnerable to players who can pressure his backhand and force him to bend for the low ball. Playing longer rallies on the grittier Indian Wells court is obviously not in Isner’s best interests.