By Richard Pagliaro | @TennisNow | Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Jasmine Paolini shocked Elena Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 to fight into her first career Grand Slam semifinal in her 18th major appearance.
Photo credit: Dan Istitene/Getty
Grand Slam tennis is all about timing.
Contesting the biggest match of her career, Jasmine Paolini played like a woman having the time of her life.
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A passionate Paolini crashed the Top 4- seeded party shocking fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 to fight into her first career Grand Slam semifinal in her 18th major appearance.
The tennis world anticipated this Roland Garros final four featuring four Grand Slam champions, but Paolini stood tall in the final stages toppling the 2022 Wimbledon winner.
“I really tried to fight every ball,” Paolini told Tennis Channel’s Jon Wertheim afterward. “It’s tough to play against her. I played her in Stuttgart, two-hours-and-a-half third set, so I was a little bit prepared.
“I was prepared for what I should expect from this match. I think it went very well. I had a little bit of roller coaster in the second set of emotion but I managed to come back. I tried to play point-by-point and it went well, yeah.”
World No. 15 Paolini rises to a new career-high ranking of No. 10 with her first career win over a Top-5 ranked player in a Slam. Paolini will play 17-year-old phenom Mirra Andreeva for a spot in Saturday’s final.
The talented Andreeva upset world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4 to reach her first maiden major semifinal.
In their lone meeting at last month's Mutua Madrid Open, Andreeva edged Paolini 7-6(2), 6-4.
"With Mirra, it's going to be a tough match," Paolini told the media in Paris. "I played against her in Madrid, and she's really great player, I think.
"She's so young but she's so, so good mentally, and she can defend very well. She can serve well. It's going to be a tough match, but we are in the semifinal, so there is no chance to get easy matches."
The top-half semifinal pits world No. 1 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 3 Coco Gauff in a rematch of the 2022 final. Swiatek has defeated Gauff in 10 of 11 meetings, sweeping all eight clay-court sets they've played. The winner of the Swiatek vs. Gauff semifinal will be a massive favorite against either the youngest woman still standing in Andreeva or the oldest in Paolini.
Dubai champion Paolini, who began the 2023 season ranked No. 62, had never surpassed a Grand Slam second round until she reached the Australian Open fourth round in January.
Today, the 28-year-old Paolini, the oldest woman still standing the draw, is now one win away from becoming the first Italian woman to reach the Roland Garros final since her doubles partner, Sara Errani, lost to Maria Sharapova in the 2012 French Open final. After this match, Paolini was set to partner Errani in doubles vs. Emma Navarro and Diana Schnaider on Court No. 14.
It's a dissapointing defeat for Rybakina, the only woman to defeat No. 1 Swiatek on a clay court this season. Rybakina just couldn't consistently bring her best tennis, doubling Paolini's unforced error total (Rybakina committed 48 errors to 22 for the Italian).
"It's definitely not the greatest day. She played really well," Rybakina told the media in Paris. "She started much better. She was moving good. I started a bit slow, and she was aggressive from the first ball. Then I was just trying to find my game, which was always I would step back and I was trying to fight through, but in the end, yeah, as you say, it's not the greatest day in the office.
"I was close, but she won. In the end I just, yeah, need to focus now on the grass season."
Facing one of the sport's most feared servers, Paolini converted 7 of 16 break points and won four games at love compared to one shutout game for Rybakina.
Though she stands 5’4” and is dwarfed by some ball kids, Paolini doesn’t play counter-punching chase-and-run tennis. Instead, Paolini straddles the baseline, tries to hit the ball on the rise and is at her best cracking her forehand and pushing opponents around.
A fearless Paolini played near flawless first-set tennis taking it to the fourth-ranked Rybakina from the first ball.
The tactical foundation of this upset was fairly simple. Paolini showed Rybakina from the first game: I will play forehand-to-forehand with you all day long, I will compete with more intensity than you and I will fight until the final ball to win.
Ultimately, that’s exactly what she did.
Surprisingly, it was 2022 Wimbledon champion Rybakina who blinked at 4-all in the final set committing a slew of errors while Paolini did not crack over those final two games.
“I was telling myself to accept [the nerves], it’s tennis, it’s normal, it can happen to everybody, I think, or most of the players, not everybody, but it’s okay,” Paolini said. “She’s a big champion. So it’s normal. I was like telling myself: Accept it. Try to fight for every ball. Enjoy yourself because you are playing in such a great court in front of people. Enjoy the moment.”
Exuding more energy and passion, Paolini broke to open the match then stamped three straight love holds—tearing through 15 consecutive service points in one stretch—in seizing a 5-2 lead.
In her sixth Roland Garros main draw, Paolini calmly served out the set at 15 moving to within one set of her first major semifinal. At that point, the match was reminiscent of Dominika Cibulkova's crushing conquest of Maria Sharapova in the 2009 French Open quarterfinals.
Across the net, Rybakina looked unsure of what to do and, at times, inexplicably played the Italian’s forehand wing, which is Paolini’s best weapon.
A clean Paolini committed just one unforced error in the opener completely dominating the former Grand Slam champion. Paolini kept pounding the Rybakina forehand fully confident she would win those forehand crosscourt exchanges—and daring the world No. 4 to try to change direction and hit her forehand down the line. The forehand down the line is Rybakina’s least favorite shot, Paolini knows it and exploited it.
How out of sorts was the lethargic-looking Rybakina through the first set-and-a-half?
It took the Stuttgart champion 44 minutes to win a point played on the 5’4” Paolini’s second serve.
Granted Paolini was mixing her serves shrewdly and hitting some timely kick serves on her second delivery.
Still, it’s not like she was serving at the pace of a prime Aryna Sabalenka, Naomi Osaka or Rybakina herself. In fact, Paolini’s average second-serve speed was a tame 72 mph in the first set.
Though Rybakina did not go into great detail on why she was so depleted, she shared recent struggles with allergies have left her feeling at less than her best.
"At the end of the day everybody is trying to manage as best as possible," Rybakina said. "I think I've played a lot. As I said, if the body is on the limit, I can't go on the court. If I'm not 100% ready, then it's a risk to even get bigger injuries or something.
"For now it's been health with allergies, sleeping, so it's a little bit different from maybe last year when I had back problems. I heal. It's always ups and downs. It's tennis, so we just trying to find the best possible way for me to prepare and be ready for big events like Grand Slams and 1000 events."
Forty-nine minutes into the match, Rybakina finally broke through. On her fourth break point, the Kazakh stepped in and clubbed a crosscourt backhand return breaking back to level after four games in the second set.
Measuring her strikes from aggressive court positioning, Rybakina rapped a backhand winner holding at 15 for 3-2.
Paolini answered with a strong hold. Again, the Italian engaged Rybakina in crosscourt forehand exchanges and again she drew a couple of forehand errors breaking for 4-2 after one hour of play.
Holding the one set, 4-3, 40-15 lead, Paolini was five points from victory, but began tightening up. Three unforced errors followed by a backhand bolt from Rybakina helped the No. 4 break back for 4-all.
By then, Rybakina was rocking her forehand faster and with more self-assurance than the first set.
A pressing Paolini pushed a backhand long to face a set point. Rybakina hammered a two-handed swing volley, closed net and watched a running pass sail long as she seized the second set to force a decider after 75 minutes.
Resetting, Paolini jumped out to a triple break point lead and converted her third break point to start the decisive set with a break.
Drawing her opponent into net, Paolini banged a backhand pass and flashed a clenched fist to her box, which had been pretty subdued for two sets. The Italian had game points to go up 3-1 in the final set, but Rybakina scorched the sideline with a backhand then hit a forehand winner ending a nine-and-a-half minute Paolini serve game for 2-2.
Pressure shifted to Rybakina’s shoulders with the set deadlocked 4-all. Rybakina struggled to clear net and committed a flurry of errors sailing her favored backhand long to gift Paolini the decisive break and a 5-4 lead.
Five errors in a row from Rybakina put Paolini up as she served for the semifinal. Standing toe-to-toe in a forehand rally Paolini drew the forehand error for match point.
A pumped up Paolini drew Rybakina’s 48th unforced error to close the biggest victory of her life in two hours, three minutes.