By Richard Pagliaro | @TennisNow | Friday, June 28, 2024
Defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz and No. 1 Jannik Sinner are on an SW19 semifinal collision course. Our Wimbledon men's preview here.
Photo credit: Rob Newell/CameraSport
A major comeback and potential massive confrontation await us at Wimbledon.
The Wimbledon men’s draw was conducted today.
More: Top Takeaways Wimbledon Women's Draw
It presents pretty intriguing issues for the top three favorites Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner, reigning Roland Garros and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz and US Open champion Novak Djokovic.
Wimbledon begins on Monday, July 1st with the Wimbledon men's final set for Sunday, July 14th.
Here are our Top 5 Takeaways from today’s Wimbledon men’s draw.
1. Sinner First-Rate Threat, Tough Tests
It’s been Sinner Season on the ATP Tour so far.
Jannik Sinner not only dismissed defending champion Novak Djokovic en route to his maiden major in Australia, he came within a set of playing for the French Open crown.
In his first tournament as world No. 1 Sinner stopped 2022 champion Hubert Hurkacz with a near flawless 7-6(8), 7-6(2) victory in last Sunday’s Halle final to become the eighth man in history to win his first event as the ATP’s top-ranked player.
On the surface, Sinner has the toughest draw of the top three seeds.
The top-seeded Sinner opens against Yannick Hanfmann, could face former Wimbledon finalist and Davis Cup teammate Matteo Berrettini in round two, 27th-seeded Tallon Griekspoor in round three, either 2023 US Open semifinalist Ben Shelton, 19th-seeded Niolas Jarry or Denis Shapovalov in round four, fifth-seeded Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals and rival and reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Sinner carries a 38-3 record with four tournament titles into Wimbledon.
Only two men—Alcaraz in the Indian Wells and Roland Garros semifinals and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Monte-Carlo semifinals—have defeated Sinner this season.
It’s a tough draw, but Sinner is tougher. He’s won 10 of his last 11 grass-court matches with his lone loss in that span a straight-sets setback to Novak Djokovic in the 2023 Wimbledon semifinals.
The Sinner vs. Alcaraz rivalry has captivated the tennis world and barring injury, I believe we will see them square off again in the semifinals of The Championships.
2. Novak’s Back—Can He Extend his Stay?
The biggest stages evoke the most profound performances in Novak Djokovic.
Now, the GOAT faces one of his toughest major tests in years: Can Djokovic beat back a pair of young, gifted Grand Slam champions who have knocked him out of Slams—and manage his physical challenge in the process?
Coming off arthroscopic surgery to repair his torn medial meniscus in his right knee on Wednesday, June 5th in Paris, Djokovic has shown remarkable recovery practicing at SW19 and seems ready to give it a go at SW19.
Obviously, a monumental ask for a recoverying Djokovic to return to the final 13 years after winning his first Wimbledon. Let's be honest: if you doubt Djokovic on any court at any time after all his astounding achievements, then chances are you've been sleep-walking through at least some of the last 15 years.
The second-seeded Serbian launches his quest for an eighth Wimbledon crown, which would equal Roger Federer’s record, and a record 25th Grand Slam crown, which would eclipse the all-time mark he currently shares with 24-time major champion Margaret Court.
The good news: Djokovic has completed practice sessions with top players and favorable early-round matchess. Djokovic opens vs. 123rd-ranked Czech qualifier Vit Kopriva with his potential path to a sixth straight Wimbledon final potentially looking like this:
1R vs. Vit Kopriva (CZE)
2R vs. Jacob Fearnley (GBR)
3R vs. (30) Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ARG)
4R vs. (15) Holger Rune (DEN)
QF vs. (7) Hubert Hurkacz (POL)
SF vs. (4) Alexander Zverev (GER)
F vs. (1) Jannik Sinner (ITA)
The 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Holger Rune or Karen Khachanov, who both own Paris Masters finals wins over the 37-year-old Serbian superstar, could be physical tests in the the third round.
If a Djokovic vs. Hubert Hurkacz fourth-rounder comes off that’s where the state of the Serbian’s health and game could really be revealed.
Four years ago, Hurkacz hammered his hero Roger Federer right out of Wimbledon. A fearless Hurkacz swept a flat Federer 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-0 storming into his first Grand Slam semifinal at the 2021 Championships as he became the second Polish man to reach a major semifinal, following Jerzy Janowicz, who advanced to the Wimbledon final four in 2013.
Djokovic owns a 7-0 career record over Hurkacz, including winning both of their Wimbledon meetings. Four of the eight sets they’ve played at Wimbledon have been decided in tiebreakers where the big-serving Hurkacz can be dangerous.
“I actually said at the beginning of the year, people thought I was crazy, maybe I am, but I didn't think Djokovic was going to win a major this year for a variety of reasons,” ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe told the media in an ESPN Zoom call this week. “Now I have to say that the idea of him playing Wimbledon, if there's one place where he could pull it off with this injury, having had this injury, maybe he could do it.
"Maybe this is what he needs to inspire him. He's looked a little uninspired throughout most of this year, certainly in between Australia and the French Open where he suffered that injury.”
3. Alcaraz Ambition Attainable
Wimbledon’s lawn rewards improvisers.
Reigning Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz is the most creative shotmaker in the sport—and has a solid shot to defend his crown.
Alcaraz showed all-court creativity last summer rallying from a first-set blow-out to dethrone Djokovic in a Wimbledon final classic.
This year, Alcaraz is on course for a Wimbledon semifinal showdown vs. world No. 1 rival Jannik Sinner in what would be a rematch of their pulsating Roland Garros semifinal.
British left-hander Jack Draper dethroned the defending Cinch champion Alcaraz 7-6(3), 6-3 last week to score the biggest win of his career on the historic Queen’s Club grass.
Though Draper snapped the Spaniard’s 13-match grass-court winning streak, Alcaraz has lost only three grass-court matches in his career and concedes he’s still learning the surface.
Ultimately, his Queen’s Club loss may well prove beneficial as Alcaraz scored successive physical five-set wins over now No. 1 Sinner and Olympic gold-medal champion Alexander Zverev to win his first Roland Garros championship. Losing early in Queen’s Club gave Alcaraz extra rest and recovery time—as well as practice time at Wimbledon.
No. 29-seeded Frances Tiafoe, who retired from Queen’s Club with a knee injury, is Alcaraz’s first possible seeded opponent in round three. If the seeds hold true to form, here is Alcaraz’s potential path to a final return:
1R: Mark Lajal (EST)
2R: Aleksandar Vukic (AUS)
3R: (29) Frances Tiafoe (USA)
4R: (16) Ugo Humbert (FRA)
QF: (8) Casper Ruud (NOR) or (12) Tommy Paul (USA)
SF: (1) Jannik Sinner (ITA)
F: (2) Novak Djokovic (SRB)
In Paris, the third-seeded Alcaraz made history as the youngest man to win major titles on all three Grand Slam surfaces: hard court (2022 US Open), grass (2023 Wimbledon) and clay (Roland Garros).
The jury’s still out on which surface is Alcaraz’s best one, but the verdict is in on this draw. Alcaraz should excel and make a strong run at successfully defending a Slam for the first time.
4. Demolition Men
Volatility thrives in the third quarter of this draw.
It's home to four of the top nine leaders in the ATP ace race—Olympic gold-medal champion Alexander Zverev, whose 417 aces are No. 2 on the Tour this season, 2022 quarterfinalist Taylor Fritz, Madrid champion Andrey Rublev and British lefty Jack Draper.
It is the only quarter that does not boast a reigning Grand Slam champion, so there’s opportunity here for those men as well as 11th-seeded Stefanos Tsitispas, if he can figure out his backhand return on grass and use the slice backhand more to set up his massive forehand, 20th-seeded Sebastian Korda, whose flat strokes should play well, 25th-seeded Lorenzo Musetti, who showed sharp net skills reaching the Queen’s Club final though his deep court positioning can be detrimental on turf and 24th-seeded Chilean lefty Alejandro Tabilo, who opens against Briton Dan Evans. Tabilo owns a red-clay win over Djokovic this season and is playing the Wimbledon main draw for just the second time.
If you’re looking for dark horses to go deep, the third quarter is the starting gate.
5. Dark Horses
We are defining dark horses as players outside the Top 10 seeds in the draw.
(12) Tommy Paul (USA)
A fast first step, fine all-court skills and an increased willingness to impose his net play on opponents all empowered Paul to the Queen’s Club championship last Sunday. You know Paul is a second-week threat if you watched his inspired run to the 2023 Australian Open semifinals. If Paul, who opens against Spaniard Pedro Martinez, gets to to the quarterfinals, he could face defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. Paul and Alcaraz have split four career meetings.
(28) Jack Draper (GBR)
There’s a lot to like about Draper in this draw. He’s lefty and knows how to use the curling slider serve wide on the ad side to drag opponents off the court, he can bang the ball big and flat off both wings, he is not afraid of the front court, he just toppled reigning Wimbledon champion Alcaraz at Queen’s Club and of course he’s British and should enjoy massive crowd support as compatriots Andy Murray, Dan Evans and Cam Norrie, Draper’s possible second-round opponent, all face tough tests. On the flip side, Draper owns one career win at SW19, he’s failed to survive the second round in six of eight Slam appearances with is best major result a U.S. Open fourth round run last summer.
(32) Zhizhen Zhang (CHN)
The man nicknamed Triple Z is growing into a Grade A threat. Zhang grew up on hard court, but showed his skills on the grass of Halle last week where he knocked off Sebastian Ofner, 2023 Wimbledon semifinalist Daniil Medvedev and 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Christopher Eubanks before bowing to world No. 1 Jannik Sinner 6-4, 7-6(3) in a tight semifinal. Yes, I realize Zhang has yet to win a match at Wimbledon and has a very tough draw with big-serving German Jan-Lennard Struff in round two and the winner potentially playing the fifth-seeded Medvedev. So you can call this pick a reach, but Zhang is solid in all areas, showed true grit in Halle and plays like a man hungry for success.
(14) Ben Shelton (USA)
The 2023 US Open semifinalist freely admits he’s still learning how to play on grass and he’s in a stacked section of the draw that could see him play either 19th-seeded Chilean Nicolas Jarry or former Wimbledon semifinalist Denis Shapovalov in round three followed by a possible fourth-rounder vs. No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Shelton is not as experienced as any of those players and still needs to polish up aspects of his game on grass, but if you saw his run to the US Open semifinals—granted completely different surface with nearly 24,000 screaming Americans supporting him—you know he’s explosive, dynamic and can play fearlessly on big points. When Shelton is landing his lefty serve in the 140 mph range and making that first-strike forehand, he can be a scary opponent. If you think that's hyperbole, go ask world No. 1 Sinner, whom Shelton upset in Shanghai last year.