By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Friday January 12, 2024
Novak Djokovic's will bid for his 25th major title in Australia. Will the draw impact his chances?
Photo Source: Getty
By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Friday January 12, 2024
The draws were released on Thursday in Melbourne, giving tennis fans a good 48 hours to drool over them before first ball on Sunday night (Saturday stateside) at the Happy Slam. So, what sense did we make of that 128-line beauty on the men’s side? Here’s five quick takes on the 2024 Australian Open men’s draw….
Alcaraz Has the Trick Draw
Remember Carlos Alcaraz? Of course you do, even if it has been a few months since we’ve seen him compete on the tour. The 20-year-old Spaniard hasn’t competed since last year’s ATP Finals, so we’ll have to speculate about what kind of form he’s in, while assuming that he’s rested and ready to be an impactful player at the year’s first Grand Slam.
It must be said: Alcaraz has been a reliable fixture at the majors over the last two seasons, compiling a 33-5 record with a pair of major titles, and he’ll need to be on form in Melbourne because he does have a bit of a tricky draw.
Alcaraz opens with Richard Gasquet, and that’s not the rub. But a potential second-rounder with either Dan Evans or Lorenzo Sonego will up the resistance, and if Carlos is into round three he could face the ever dangerous Alexander Bublik, who is seeded 31st. Assuming the seeds hold and Alcaraz makes it to round four, he’d have Tommy Paul, a player that defeated him not once but twice in the last 18 months.
If Alcaraz plows ever further, his potential quarterfinal opponent would be Alexander Zverev, who owns three wins against him, and is playing menacing tennis these days. A year and a half removed from that debilitating ankle injury suffered at Roland-Garros, Zverev is finally starting to look like his old self. All that to reach the semis, and a potential – again, if the seeds hold – date with two-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev.
Why is Alcaraz’s draw considered tough? Because he might have to work extremely hard to get through it, and even if he is successful and reaches the final, how much energy will he have then conserved if he finds himself facing 10-time champion Novak Djokovic for the title? As history has shown us time and time again, these things matter a great deal.
Here's the full #AO2024 Men's Draw
Our Fave First-Round Tilt
No, it isn’t Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Matteo Berrettini, though we will be glued to that from start to finish. It’s actually Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Dominic Thiem. Why? Because both players have had their share of struggles of late and each is in need of a moral victory. It will be nice to see one of them get one, rather than both of them losing in round one.
Who knows: a win in this match could be the thing that sparks a renaissance for a player badly in need of one.
Most Dangerous Unseeded Floaters
Russia’s Roman Safiullin, tucked up in Holger Rune’s section, already showed that he is a big stage player last year when he made a run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Safiullin has been coming of age for the last 18 months, and the hard-hitting baseliner could present a big problem for Holger Rune if he reaches the third round.
British talent Jack Draper is another unseeded name to keep an eye on. The menacing southpaw looks supremely fit out of the gates this year, and he just thumped Tommy Paul, the highest-ranked player standing between himself and the round of 16, in Adelaide.
France’s Arthur Fils, also in Safiullin’s (and Rune’s) section, could also be a player that causes problems, though his lack of experience at the Slams will make it harder. The 19-year-old Frenchman makes his Australian Open debut against Jiri Vesely.
How Is Djokovic’s Draw?
You’re probably asking why we didn’t feature the guy going for a record 25th Slam at the top of the page. Here’s why… because draws really don’t matter to Novak Djokovic. The Grand Slam king seeks and destroys whoever is in his section, and that’s the way it is and has been over the years.
Of course draws matter, but not this one, because it is relatively favorable for Djokovic and should give him plenty of time to ease into the tournament.
If there is one tricky candidate in Djokovic’s half it is Italy's Jannik Sinner, the man who won two out of three against the Serbian in November. Sinner is probably the fourth favorite at this tournament, and one of these days he’s going to win a major, and probably a lot of them. But we still like Djokovic against the field, and certainly Djokovic against any potential usurper at a Slam, especially in Melbourne, where he owns a ridiculous 89-8 lifetime record.
There. We've said it. Next year we may carry a different tune, but until somebody shows us they can handle Djokovic when it matters, we're singing this one.
But, if you’re curious, here is Djokovic’s potential path to the title, if seeds hold:
Round 1: Qualifier
Round 2: Popyrin or Polmans
Round 3: Etcheverry (or potentially Murray or Monfils or Hanfmann)
Round of 16: Ben Shelton or Adrian Mannarino
QF: Stefanos Tsitsipas
SF: Jannik Sinner
F: Alcaraz
More important than the draw is the status of Djokovic’s recently injured right wrist. If it is good to go, then he will be as well.
Balance is a good thing
The draw is fair and balanced when you scan back and look at it as a whole. You have the four corners defended by the four players who have the best shot to win, and a mix of other dangerous seeds and floaters interspersed.
Alcaraz’s section looks the trickiest on paper, but that could change by the end of week one. It’s difficult to say which players are in their best form, with the season just starting ten days ago, and that is what makes the Australian Open difficult to predict. In the end, it’s always the safest to go with experience, and when it comes to that, we have Djokovic, the king of Melbourne, and Medvedev, a player with two Aussie Open finals under his belt and one who has reached the final in three of the last five hard court Slams.
Medvedev is in Alcaraz’s half, and Rune’s quarter, and he could end up facing Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16. If that match happens, we’ll have a player who enters hot, having won his first title since 2017 in Dimitrov, and Medvedev, who historically plays well in Melbourne but hasn’t played a match since November.
Dimitrov, along with Alex de Minaur, have been two of the biggest stories of the young season on the men’s side, and all eyes will be on them to see if they can parlay their early season heroics into a prolonged stay at the Happy Slam.
De Minaur opens with former Australian Open semifinalist Milos Raonic, and could potentially face Matteo Arnaldi in the second round, Nicolas Jarry in the third round and Andrey Rublev in the fourth. That’s rough sledding for the much adored Aussie.