By Richard Pagliaro | @Tennis_Now | Thursday, August 22, 2024
Carlos Alcaraz could be on track for a semifinal showdown vs. Jannik Sinner.
Photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty
US Open contenders stood shoulder-to-shoulder today.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz practiced side-by-side this morning in the shadow of Arthur Ashe Stadium.
The 2024 US Open draw was conducted today and the prospect of an Alcaraz-Sinner semifinal showdown jumps off the page. Both Grand Slam champions occupy the top half of the draw along with former champion Daniil Medvedev, while Novak Djokovic is in the bottom half.
See the full 2024 US Open Men's Draw here.
See the full 2024 US Open Women's Draw here.
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If Alcaraz squares off with Sinner in this US Open semifinal it would be a rematch of their epic 2022 US Open quarterfinal that electrified New York City and fans all over the world.
Here are our Top 5 Takeaways from the US Open men’s draw.
Sinner: Suffer or Shine?
Rafael Nadal famously said suffering is a prerequisite to Grand Slam success.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who has battled a hip injury and tonsillitis that knocked him out of the Paris Olympics, has felt the pain in his peak pro season.
This week, the ITIA announced Sinner twice tested positive for a banned steroid last March, but will not be suspended because an independent tribunal found he bore “no fault” for the doping violation.
Still, some players and some fans have blasted the perceived double standard that Sinner was still playing for six months while appealing a provisional suspension, while some other players, including former No. 1 Simona Halep, were not permitted to play.
Sinner looked weary at times in Cincinnati yet still came through capturing his third career Masters 1000 hard-court championship in the Queen City.
The reigning Australian Open champion is bidding to join Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic as just the third man since 1990 to win majors in Melbourne and New York in the same season. Djokovic, of course, did it last year when he won three of the four Grand Slams.
How will Sinner, who meets Mackenzie McDonald in the first round and could play another American, Alex Michelsen in round two, hold up to the heat from the media and possibly fans?
Coach Darren Cahill told ESPN’s Chris McKendry that Sinner has had to “suffer” during this doping scandal saga.
“Yeah, he’s struggled. I think it’s wore him down physically and mentally,” Cahill told ESPN. “I think he’s gotten sick a couple of times. He got tonsillitis, which is the reason why he missed the Olympics. So we’re not looking for any sorrow because we’re quite thankful that there is no ban attached."
Will the court be a sanctuary from the stress or a pressure cooker for Sinner? We’ll find out.
Alcaraz Ambition
The best of times and worst of times hit Carlos Alcaraz in a span of weeks.
At Wimbledon, 21-year-old Spaniard seized his fourth Grand Slam crown in as many major finals—joining Roger Federer as the second man in Open Era history to win his first four Slam finals—and now stands shoulder-to-shoulder with elite champions as the sixth man in history to sweep Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the same season.
At the Paris Olympics, Alcaraz could not crack Djokovic’s serve and wept openly after suffering a 7-6, 7-6 defeat in the gold-medal match.
True, Alcaraz is in the tougher top half of this Open draw along with No. 1 Sinner, No. 5-seeded Daniil Medvedev and a few players who have big wins over Alcaraz, including British lefty Jack Draper, who upset Alcaraz at Queens’ Club, and Tommy Paul, who has wins over the Spaniard and has played him tight whenever they meet.
Still, Alcaraz is arguably the best athlete in the top half, owns the most shots and he is phenomenal in the fifth set as he showed with back-to-back stirring comeback wins over Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev to seize his first French Open title.
Alcaraz owns a 12-1 career record in five-setters which should help him go deep again in New York—particularly since the Spaniard imploded in Cincinnati in a rare show of anger smashing his racquet.
Why is Alcaraz so devastating going the distance? We put that question to Hall of Famers John McEnroe and Chrissie Evert on ESPN’s Zoom call this week.
“It's tough to say why Alcaraz is [so great doing the distance]. He's obviously incredibly talented, and he's figured out how to sort of pace himself better because he had had some issues with cramping,” ESPN analyst John McEnroe told Tennis Now. “He understands the emotions of what you go through better, so that helps. His record in five sets is incredible. I don't think my record was anywhere near as good as him. It was decent, but nowhere near as good as him in the fifth set.”
Best Draw: Novak Djokovic
Empowered by his inspired run at the Paris Olympics, defending champion Novak Djokovic has a gold road to another deep run in New York.
The 37-year-old Serbian superstar opens vs. a qualifier with his first potential seeded foe No. 28-seeded Aussie Alexei Popyrin, coming off capturing the Canadian Open, looming in round three. Djokovic is 3-0 lifetime vs. Popyrin, including four-set wins at the Australian Open in January and Wimbledon in July.
The fourth round could present a 2023 US Open semifinal rematch of Djokovic vs. explosive American Ben Shelton—if the left-handed Shelton can subdue compatriot Frances Tiafoe in what would be a round three rematch of their 2023 US Open quarterfinal.
Djokovic’s projected path to a 10th US Open final in his last 13 Flushing Meadows appearances:
R1: vs. Qualifier
R2: vs. Jan-Lennard Stuff (GER)
R3: vs. (28) Alexei Popyrin (AUS)
R4: vs. (13) Ben Shelton (USA)
QF: vs. (6) Andrey Rublev or (9) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
SF: vs. (4) Alexander Zverev (GER)
F: vs. (1) Jannik Sinner (ITA) or (3) Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)
Remember, apart from joining forces with John McEnroe in a doubles exo on Ashe Stadium Wednesday night, Djokovic has not played since delivering one of the most dynamic two-set performances of his career defeating Alcaraz in the Olympic gold-medal match at Roland Garros.
Still, if there is no Olympic hangover, you have to expect Djokovic, who called his gold-medal run “arguably the biggest success that I’ve had” to be buzzed by the draw and the opportunity that awaits.
The Grand Slam king is playing for a record-extending 25th Grand Slam crown, a 100th career championship, to become the oldest man in the Open Era to win a Slam title and collect the biggest US Open payday as well.
If Djokovic does not defend his US Open crown, it will be historic as well. It would mark the first time since 2002, when Djokovic’s hero, Pete Sampras beat archrival Andre Agassi in the US Open final, that no Big 3 champion won a Grand Slam title in a season.
American Advance: Which U.S. Men Have Best Draws?
Five talented Americans—Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Tommy Paul, Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe—reside in the ATP Top 20.
All five face serious challenges to go deep into the second week, yet a couple of Americans are capable of doing it.
Fritz has the most favorable draw. Fritz resides in the third quarter along with No. 4-seeded Alexander Zverev, former US Open finalist Casper Ruud, 15th-seeded Holger Rune and 18th-seeded Lorenzo Musetti, who defeated Fritz in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
The 12th-seeded Fritz opens vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli with a second-round showdown vs. former US Open semifinalist Matteo Berrettini possible.
The 26-year-old Fritz is 3-0 lifetime vs. Berrettini and has reached the quarterfinals in three of his last four Grand Slam appearances, including Wimbledon last month. Yes, Musetti exposed Fritz’s frontcourt frailty at times during the Wimbledon win, but former Indian Wells champion Fritz is a hard-courter at heart and can do damage in this draw.
On paper, Paul has a very tough draw facing Italian Lorenzo Sonego, who owns a hard-court win over Djokovic, in the first round. Paul is on course for a possible fourth-round clash vs. No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who is coming off the Cincinnati championship and the news of a pair of positive doping tests last March.
While he’s an underdog if that match comes off, don’t discount Paul, who has posted career wins over both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz and is one of the finest pure athletes in the game. Paul gave Alcaraz an entertaining Wimbledon quarterfinal last month though he committed far too many errors in that one.
No. 16-seeded Sebastian Korda owns one win in four career Flushing Meadows appearances. Though Korda also resides in the Sinner and Paul quarter, he should deliver his best US Open result next week.
Before the draw came out, 2023 US Open semifinalist Shelton may well have been viewed as the top hope among American men. Shelton loves the big stage and obviously owns the lethal lefty serve to make another run in New York, but a possible third-round clash against Cincinnati finalist Frances Tiafoe followed by a fourth-round meeting vs. Djokovic, who famously hung up on Shelton after his 2023 semifinal win, will be tough obstacles to hurdle.
Andy Roddick, the 2003 US Open champion, remains the last American man to raise a Grand Slam title trophy.
Dark Horses Ready to Run
We’re defining dark horses as players outside the Top 10 seeds.
(19) Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)
If competitive Karma exists, then Auger-Aliassime is due a dividend in New York.
The Canadian was royally screwed over in Cincinnati when Jack Draper’s shot, which bounced on his side of the court before clearing the net, was ruled good on match point. Auger-Aliassime showed class handling a horrible decision.
It won’t be easy for the 2021 US Open semifinalist to bounce back though.
Auger-Aliassime, drawn into the top quarter with Sinner, faces hard-hitting Czech Jakub Mensik in his opener, could face 11th-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in round three and former champion Daniil Medvedev just to get to Sinner in a quarterfinal. Still, Auger-Aliassime can crack the serve and play first-strike tennis IF he is landing his sometime schizoid forehand.
(15) Holger Rune (DEN)
Former Paris Masters Indoor champion Rune held match points against Frances Tiafoe in the Cincinnati semifinals before bowing in heart-breaker. It’s been a bit of a crazy season for Rune, who has partnered company with a slew of coaches and now seeks to stabilize with coach Kenneth Carlsen in his corner. Can Rune, who was flattened by Djokovic in the Wimbledon fourth round last month, get his game going again in New York?
Rune faces American Brandon Nakashima in a difficult opener, but if he can get through it there is room to move as he’s in the third quarter of the field along with Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud.
Rune can play with variety when he’s confident and he's not afraid to go big on seconds erve, but can sometimes get too defensive on the forehand. Rune has only two career wins in New York, but he’s reached the fourth round or better in five of his last seven Slam appearances.
(32) Jiri Lehecka (CZE)
A strong, physical, fit athlete, Lehecka can bang the ball from the baseline and though he’s seeking his first ever US Open win this month, he can bring heat on hard courts.
The 2023 Australian Open quarterfinalist faces Marton Fucsovics in his opener.
If Lehecka wins, he’d face a qualifier in round two to potentially get to No. 6-seeded Andrey Rublev in round three. Lehecka has split four career meetings with Rublev, including defeating him in Indian Wells last March.