By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, June 30, 2023
Reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina opens against American Shelby Rogers and resides in the same quarter of the draw as two-time champion Petra Kvitova and 2022 finalist Ons Jabeur.
Photo credit: Clive Brunskill/Getty
Green days are here.
Several high seeds can bloom in the Wimbledon ladies' draw.
The Championships conducted the 2023 Wimbledon draws today. See the complete ladies draw here.
Here are our Top 5 takeaways from the 2023 Wimbledon ladies' draw.
Iga's Pole Position
The SW19 grass has been a slippery slope for Iga Swiatek, who has yet to surpass the fourth round in three prior appearances, including a third round loss to grass giant killer Alize Cornet in the 2022 third round.
That should change this time for Swiatek, who opens against China's Lin Zhu and has a clear path to the second week. Here's the 2018 Wimbledon girls' champion's projected path if the seeds hold true to form:
Round 1: Lin Zhu
Round 2: Sara Sorribes Tormo-Martina Trevisan winner
Round 3: (30) Petra Martic
Round 4: (14) Belinda Bencic or (23) Magda Linette
QF: (7) Coco Gauff or (11) Daria Kasatkina
SF: (4) Jessica Pegula or (5) Caroline Garcia
The top-seeded Swiatek has won three of the last five Grand Slams she's contested and should be thrilled she's on the opposite side of the draw as nemesis and reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, who has beaten the Pole three times this year, including knocking her out of the Australian Open.
Though Swiatek withdrew from today's Bad Homburg semifinals citing a fever, she should be poised for her best Wimbledon result next week. The question is: Can she master Wimbledon's lawn where she concedes she hasn't felt comfortable despite her run to the girls' title five years ago.
"She can't really at this point feel super confident on the grass. I think she feels confident. She's No. 1 in the world, the best player in the world, but this surface may take away a little bit of her strength, which is her moving because of the sliding," ESPN analyst and Hall of Famer Chrissie Evert said of Swiatek. "Also I think if you're going to win Wimbledon, you've got to have a big serve, you've got to win free points off that serve. The players have been attacking her second serve a little bit.
"She doesn't have that big Sabalenka, Rybakina first serve. I'm nitpicking here because she's No. 1 in the world and she's great, and I think she can win Wimbledon, don't get me wrong. But there's some little nuances in her game that might hurt her a little bit on the grass court that don't affect her as much, that help her actually, on the other surfaces."
Champion Rybakina's Crowded Quarter
The good news for Elena Rybakina is she's arguably the premier grass-court player in the field.
The serve and return are the two most vital shots on grass and Rybakina can rip both with damaging consequences. Rybakina has blasted a WTA-best 316 aces this season and her mastery of Swiatek makes her a threat to defend.
The third-seeded Rybakina opens against American Shelby Rogers with a potential second-rounder vs. Cornet, who toppled Swiatek at SW19 last year.
The challenges are considerable though.
Rybakina had to withdraw from Roland Garros with a virus that she said impacted her in her three-set loss to Donna Vekic in Berlin and prompted her to pull out of Eastbourne this week.
If she's fully fit, Rybakina can beat anyone in the field.
If she's still suffering the energy-sapping virus then she could be vulnerable in the third quarter of the draw to two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, 2022 finalist Ons Jabeur or 2017 Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko, who has split four meetings with Rybakina and swept their lone grass-court clash in the 2021 Eastbourne semifinals.
The Tennis Now team was in Miami to see Kvitova deliver some of her most dynamic tennis in years en route to the Miami Open title. The 33-year-old left-hander should be sky high for Wimbledon after defeating three Top 25 players: No. 4 Caroline Garcia, No. 22 Ekaterina Alexandrova and No. 23 Donna Vekic to capture her 31st career title on the grass of Berlin.
Though Kvitova has not been beyond the Wimbledon fourth round since she raised her second Rosewater Dish in 2014, two of her last three Tour-level titles have come on grass, she owns six career grass titles and if she's landing her lefty serve and taking the first strike with confidence she can disarm anyone on grass.
Should seeds hold true to form, Rybakina would face second-seeded Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals. Sabalenka has won four of their five prior meetings, including a three-set win to capture her maiden major at the Australian Open in January and a 2021 Wimbledon win.
"You definitely have to be 100% physically to play seven matches and to do things with your body that you're not accustomed to doing versus a hard court or a clay court," Hall of Famer and ESPN analyst Chrissie Evert said. "You have to be adaptable, flexible, you have to be able to move on some slick courts.
"It all kind of screams you better be careful with your body and you better have that good balance. I also feel like one other thing [Rybakina] has going against her, it's always tough to defend your title. I just feel like she's shown a little vulnerability this year. She's got the perfect game for grass when everything is working, but everything has to be working. She played a great, great match when she won the tournament, but at the same time I don't know if she's at that top form right now."
Sabalenka Strong Lawn Lane in SW19 Return
Banned by Wimbledon last year along with fellow Belarusians and Russians, Ayrna Sabalenka should make deep inroads in her SW19 return.
Remember, Sabalenka reached the Wimbledon semifinals in her last appearance and returns to The Championships carrying the confidence that comes from winning her maiden major title at the Australian Open in January.
One of the most powerful players on Tour, Sabalenka's 231 aces are third on the WTA Tour behind Rybakina (316) and Caroline Garcia (266). The big-hitting Belarusian is second behind only Garcia in service games held this season (83.2 percent).
Still, Sabalenka could face formidable foes including Karolina Muchova, who knocked her out of the Roland Garros semifinals, and reigning champion Rybakina, who beat her for the first time in the Indian Wells final.
The Australian Open champion faces world No. 82 Panna Udvardy in the first round followed by these potential matches:
Round 2: Camila Giorgi
Round 3: (29) Irina-Camelia Begu
Round 4: (16) Karolina Muchova or (21) Ekaterina Alexandrova
QF: (8) Maria Sakkari or (10) Barbora Krejcikova
SF: (3) Elena Rybakina or (6) Ons Jabeur or (9) Petra Kvitova
U.S. Blues
Wimbledon's lawn could provide bruising experience for American women.
The Williams sisters contested 16 of 20 Wimbledon finals and combined to capture 12 of 20 championships between 2000 and 2020 when Wimbledon was cancelled due to the Coronavirus pandemic.
While there are four American seeds this year—No. 4 Jessica Pegula, No. 7 Coco Gauff, No. 25 Madison Keys and No. 27 Bernarda Pera—as well as 43-year-old Venus Williams returning on a wild card, U.S. women all face demanding draws.
Gauff, who is set to face Keys in the Eastbourne semifinals today, faces 2020 Australian Open champion and Wimbledon qualifier Sofia Kenin in round one with a potential third-round clash vs. either Elina Svitolina or five-time former champion Venus Williams. Gauff is in the same top quarter as her personal nightmare nemesis Swiatek, whom she has yet to beat, though you can make a case grass would be her best shot at the top seed.
The fourth-seeded Pegula drew compatriot Lauren Davis in her opener. If seeds hold true to form, Pegula would play either 15th-seeded Liudmila Samsonova or 24th-seeded Qinwen Zheng in the fourth round followed by a possible quarterfinal vs. No. 5-seeded Caroline Garcia.
Former US Open finalist Keys opens vs. British wild card Sonay Kartal and would meet No. 8-seeded Maria Sakkari in the third round followed by a round of 16 vs. No. 10-seeded Barbora Krejcikova, a quarterfinal against No. 2-seeded Aryna Sabalenka and potential semifinal vs. either Petra Kvitova or Ons Jabeur if the seeds hold true to form.
Venus Williams, who scored her first Top 50 win in nearly four years defeating Camila Giorgi in a three-hour, 16-minute epic on grass last week, will receive a rousing welcome for fans before a brutal opener against fellow wild card Elina Svitolina.
Three Dark Horses to Watch
We define dark horses as players who are outside the Top 10 seeds.
No. 16 Karolina Muchova
Sure, it will be tough for the Czech to follow up her French Open final run going deep at SW19 . An all-court player, Muchova is actually better on grass than she is on clay. A fine volleyer comfortable closing at net, Muchova has reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in two of three appearances and will be pumped to improve on her opening-round exit last year.
No. 15 Liudmila Samsonova
The bad news: Samsonova has failed to survive the second round in 10 of her 12 Grand Slam appearances. The good news: Samsonova is a hard and flat-ball hitter who can play first-strike tennis successfully against most opposition. In her lone prior Wimbledon appearance, Samsonova reached the fourth round in 2021 and she operates out of a kinder second quarter of the draw which means she would not have to face world No. 1 Swiatek until a possible semifinal and is on the opposite side of the draw from reigning champion Rybakina and Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka. Samsonova does not play with much margin, which can be both a blessing and curse on grass. If she's landing, she can rack up winners and if her flat drives are expiring into net, she can hit herself into oblivion.
No. 20 Donna Vekic
The 27-year-old Croatian has an ignominious history at Wimbledon. Vekic has lost in the first or second round in seven of eight appearances. So why are we high on her Wimbledon hopes this month? Vekic defeated Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina on grass last week en route to the Berlin final and was an Australian Open quarterfinalist in January. If Vekic's serve is clicking she can hold with regularity and she's not afraid of cracking drives down the line. Vekic faces Zhang Shuai in the first round. If she prevails, she has a shot to reach the fourth round.
First-Round Matches to Watch
(7) Coco Gauff vs. (Q) Sofia Kenin—Even 1-1
(WC) Elina Svitolina vs. (WC) Venus Williams—Svitolina leads 3-1
(8) Maria Sakkari vs. Marta Kostyuk—Sakkari leads 2-0
(WC) Katie Swan vs. (14) Belinda Bencic—First meeting