By Raymond Lee | Thursday, December 28, 2023
Novak Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slam titles in 2023, marking the fourth time he's won three majors in a single season.
Photo credit: Aryna Sabalenka Instagram
Tennis Tours popped with fascinating storylines throughout the 2023 season.
The WTA Tour delivered dominance and breakthroughs: four different women won the four major titles.
TN Q&A: Richard Evans on Hall of Fame Induction, Althea Gibson, GOAT, and Two Better Than GOAT
Did you know that’s the fifth time in the last six full Grand Slam seasons that four different women have raised major title trophies in a year? That speaks to the depth and desire in the women’s game.
Aryna Sabalenka was the most consistent in the majors in winning the Australian Open over Elena Rybakina in three sets, opening a one-set lead in the US Open final before falling in three and never losing before the semifinals in any of the four Slams this year.
Coco Gauff reshaped her coaching staff, hiring Winning Ugly author Brad Gilbert and Pere Riba as coaches, then realized her tremendous talent rallying past Sabalenka in a stirring US Open final and helping deny the Belarusian the year-end world No. 1 ranking.
In the end, Iga Swiatek repeated as year-end world No. 1 for 2023 in the WTA—although Sabalenka was named ITF 2023 World Champion.
The speedy Swiatek surged through a strong finish winning her last 11 matches and last two tournaments at the China Open and the WTA Finals in a windy, rainy Cancun, Mexico. Swiatek did not drop a sweeping to the WTA Finals crown capping a tremendous performance under pressure of pursuing the top spot.
Iga Swiatek Is 2023 WTA Player of the Year
On the women’s side, 2023 was the Year of Iga.
It was a season that saw Iga Swiatek lose and then regain her world No. 1 ranking.
While Swiatek was No. 1 in 2023 she was not as dominant as she was in 2022—if you go by winning percentage and tournaments won. This year she finished barely ahead of Sabalenka in points with 9295 points to Sabalenka’s 9050 points. Swiatek finished first by a margin of a mere 245 points.
Compare that close finish to 2022 when a stupendous Swiatek rolled to year-end No. 1 with a fantastic 11085 points compared to Ons Jabeur’s 5055 points. This was 119.29% higher than the No. 2 player!
So how does Iga Swiatek compare with past greats of the game?
Obviously, Iga is very early on in her career so we won’t really know the total answer until her career ends, hopefully many years from now. I would write as a bit of an understatement that she’s off to a pretty good start.
At age 22, the prolific Pole has been No. 1 twice, won four major championships, won six Tier 1000 tournaments, one WTA Final title and 17 tournaments in total.
To put those stats into perspective: If Iga Swiatek never played another match, I believe she’s amassed a record that will put her into the International Tennis Hall of Fame quite easily.
For further perspective, consider Serena Williams, at age in 2003, was only world No. 1 once, but Serena had won six Grand Slam titles and played a reduced scheduled compared to many of her top rivals. Serena had won five WTA 1000 tournament titles up to 2003 compared to Swiatek’s six WTA 1000 tournament titles won by the same age. Serena had one WTA Finals crown in her resume by 22 as does Swiatek.
Let me be clear: I am not predicting Iga Swiatek will produce a final record equal to Serena Williams—far from it—however at this comparable point in their careers clearly Iga does own a record very similar to Serena at the same age, which is truly a tremendous achievement.
The three-time Roland Garros champion also owns impressive stats when you examine her service games won and return games won.
Many believe that the serve is the most important stroke in tennis, but I would add that it doesn’t matter if you have a great serve if you don’t back it up well. No one at the top levels can serve an ace or a service winner all the time.
Obviously, Swiatek doesn’t possess the massive serve of a Serena Williams—few do—but she backs it up extremely well. This year, Swiatek won 80.4% of her service games. This is barely behind Sabalenka and 2022 WTA Finals champion Caroline Garcia, who were at 80.8% of service games won.
If the serve and backing up your serve is important, surely the service return is pretty close too. Swiatek won 50.1% of her service return games in 2023.
This is technically third behind Sorribes Tormo and Tsurenko of those who played enough matches to qualify for the WTA leaders list. However Swiatek played far more matches than those two and competed into the latter rounds against tougher competition so you could argue Swiatek had the best return game in tennis in 2023 all things considered.
When you combine the service stats and return stats and the fact Iga is one of the game’s greatest movers, it’s all very impressive. Reviewing the service return break percentages and percentage of service held it’s a wonder how Swiatek even lost 11 matches in 2023.
Typically, these types of statistics translate to the player winning easily over 90% of their matches.
Swiatek won 68 and lost 11 matches in 2023 for 86.07%. With her service hold percentages and percentage of return games won in 2023 I would have thought she would have won 73 to 75 matches out of 79 so you could say in that area statistically she should have won more matches.
Swiatek actually improved her service and return numbers from 2022 so you could argue that despite having a lesser year than 2022 in the won-lost record department, Swiatek may have overall improved as a player.
I believe Swiatek’s forehand is one of the best forehands perhaps in women’s tennis history when you look at the numbers.
Let me explain that: The speed and rpms Swiatek produces are comparable and often higher than that of top players on the men’s tour. When you have a forehand that has been compared to a right-handed version of her hero, Rafael Nadal’s famed lefty forehand, well that catches your eye.
It can be an even bigger weapon as many of Iga’s top rivals, including Coco Gauff, are often more comfortable playing backhands therefore Swiatek can crash their forehands at crunch time as we've all witnessed in recent years.
It’s a pity we don’t have speed and rpm stats on the best women’s forehand I’ve seen in the past. That would be the iconic Hall of Famer Steffi Graf.
Swiatek’s backhand is also very strong and solid and much flatter than her topspin forehand. There really doesn’t seem to be an easy area to attack Swiatek.
Still, the return of major champions Naomi Osaka, Angelique Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki at next month’s Australian Open should give us plenty of reason to celebrate women’s tennis in 2024.
Grand Slam King: Novak Djokovic
On the men’s side, the incomparable Novak Djokovic was again the year-end world No. 1.
The 36-year-old Serbian superstar won his record seventh ATP Finals title, his eighth year-end world No. 1 and his eighth ITF World Champion honor. Djokovic achieved it all despite not being able to play in Indian Wells or Miami.
How great was Novak Djokovic’s 2023 season?
It’s the fourth time in his career Djokovic won three Slams in a single season and consider he missed becoming the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to sweep the calendar Slam by just one set with his Wimbledon finals loss to Carlos Alcaraz.
While Djokovic, is of course exceptional, his stats, compared with his best year in 2015 were a bit lower but it’s almost impossible to duplicate the stats he had that year. Djokovic in 2015 won about 89.5% of his service games while breaking 34.4% of the time.
That year is arguably the greatest year a men’s tennis player has ever had.
In 2023, Novak won about 88.39% of his service games and broke about 28.8% of the time. Still, awesome statistics, nevertheless.
The match of the year on the ATP Tour was the 2023 Wimbledon Final that saw Alcaraz rally to dramatically dethrone Djokovic.
Remember, Djokovic won the first set easily 6-1 and many thought the Roland Garros champion’s experience on grass at Wimbledon would give him a huge edge in the final. However Alcaraz won the important second set tiebreaker and the third 6-1. Djokovic bounced back to win the fourth 6-3 and it came down to the final set which Alcaraz won 6-4.
At this point it seemed like many were thinking that Alcaraz may finally take over the mantle of being the top player over Djokovic.
Yes, I know Alcaraz was No. 1 in 2022 but that was a year in which Djokovic did not or could not play a full tournament schedule due to the COVID vaccine controversy.
However Djokovic ended all questions and doubts by not losing until the ATP Finals to Jannik Sinner in the round robin competition. Djokovic won the World Tour Finals by defeating Alcaraz in straight sets in the semifinals by 6-3 6-2 and got his revenge on Sinner 6-3 6-3 to win the tournament.
Jannik Sinner seemed to reach a new level later in the year. He defeated Djokovic in ATP Finals round-robin play before Djokovic defeated Sinner in the semifinals. Sinner stopped Djokovic in the Davis Cup, surviving several match points to help Italy win the Davis Cup. It’s not unreasonable to say that Sinner was one of the top two players for the last few months of the year.
Here's a thought: Imagine if inclement weather forces the roof to be closed at the Australian Open. Think about how dangerous Sinner was playing beneath the closed roof in Turin and in Davis Cup where his brilliant ball-striking skills shined.
So Djokovic now has in my Adjusted ATP Lifetime points total of 175,170 points which is clearly ahead of the No. 2 player Roger Federer at 167,449 by a good margin. Djokovic has now reached the unreal level of averaging 601.96 Adjusted ATP Points per tournament! Federer for example averaged 456.26 and that’s fantastic. Federer did this in 367 tournaments while Djokovic has accomplished this in 291 tournaments. Nadal is at 150,473 and averaged 494.98 Adjusted ATP Points per tournament in 304 tournaments.
Djokovic is dominating the present, which raises the question: How does Novak Djokovic compare with the greats of the past?
Unquestionably, Djokovic is the most accomplished player in the Open Era.
However, not every elite champion played in the Open Era. The parameters for occupying the top spot are also different these days.
For example, in Pancho Gonzalez, Jack Kramer, Ellsworth Vines’ professional days, the top player would be determined by World Championship Head-to-Head Tours.
In a way, it was sort of like professional boxing.
Mike Tyson was probably a far better fighter than Buster Douglas, but Buster Douglas shocked the world knocking Tyson out and subsequently became new world heavyweight champion.
Pancho Gonzalez used to play head-to-head World Championship tours against greats like Lew Hoad, Ken Rosewall, Pancho Segura and Tony Trabert among others. The selt-taught champion who learned to play on the public park courts of Exposition Park in LA, won every one of them except the first one against Jack Kramer when Gonzalez was inexperienced.
So he was considered the top player after he won them. It was more important than majors now because once you won it you were the top player for the tennis year.
In current tennis, even if you swept a calendar Grand Slam, it would not automatically guarantee you are year-end world No. 1. However, I will admit if you win four majors in a year, the odds of not being No. 1 are exceedingly low, but still possible.
As I wrote previously, the Greatest Of All Time means the player with the highest level of play. The number of Grand Slam titles won are simply an indicator of this, but not the final answer.
When defining the GOAT, of course it depends on the period of time we are talking about. Is a player the GOAT for one year, five years, ten years, career or even one match?
Of course Novak Djokovic is the top name in the conversation for any of these periods of time.
Because the parameters of greatness is harder to measure prior to the Open Era and the start of the ATP Tour we can only look at the records of the past and see who still may measure up to Djokovic.
There are only a very few and of course all of them are legends.
They are Pancho Gonzalez, Bill Tilden, Jack Kramer, Rod Laver, and Ellsworth Vines.
Each of those legendary champions had fantastic accomplishments and had fairly long careers.
I’m going to write a bit of a hypothetical story and ask a GOAT question afterward.
Let’s say there is a super great weightlifter that emerges.
I’ll call him Weightlifter A. He can lift weights twice as heavy as any other competitor in the world. No one else is remotely close to this person.
Weightlifter A totally dominates this tour and wins every weightlifting tournament for five years.
Weightlifter B is the second best. He can lift exactly 50% of what Weightlifter A can lift but no more. He finishes second in every weightlifting tournament that Weightlifter A is in, with of course Weightlifter A finishing first.
Weightlifter B never defeats Weightlifter A.
After five years of winning every tournament Weightlifter A gets hurt and can no longer compete. He retires. In his absence Weightlifter B now dominates the Weightlifters and wins all the tournaments for the next ten years.
Weightlifter B accumulates far more titles than Weightlifter A. Except for Weightlifter A no one comes close to the level of Weightlifter B. Weightlifter B never reached the levels of weightlifting, Weightlifter A reached. He never came close but he reached levels no one but Weightlifter A could reach and surpass.
These two are obviously the two best Weightlifters ever.
The question is who’s the GOAT between these two?
Well, if you go by titles you have to go with Weightlifter B. This is basically the same as just counting the number of majors in tennis. It is a good indicator of greatness but not infallible.
If you go by peak level of performance, it’s easily Weightlifter A. This is looking at the highest performance level. Admittedly in this case we can get exact numbers which we cannot get in tennis for level of play.
That’s the problem with comparing different eras of tennis.
There are some players who can be argued to have the Highest Level of Peak Play ever prior to the Open Era.
It is very hard to make a direct comparison because of the changes in tennis over the decade. One major reason is that how can you compare players who played with just any wood racquets instead of the larger and lighter super high-quality racquets that we have today? The strings are far better today than in the past.
Another huge reason is that the parameters for how to be No. 1 are different also.
How much more spin could a Pancho Gonzalez or Ellsworth Vines be able to have on their serve and how much faster could their serves go with the current racquets and strings? How much extra topspin could a Borg or a Laver be able to put on their groundstrokes with the current racquets and strings? We will never know for sure but it’s clear that their level of play would go up substanƟally with today’s tennis equipment.
At least for the current ATP system of using points to rank their players my Adjusted ATP Average Points per tournament can rank the players on their Level of Player for the players who have played during these times. Prior to the current ranking method it is harder to evaluate.
Medical knowledge is far greater than in the past so the top players can hire people to ensure that they play at the highest possible level.
The players I mentioned who played prior to the Open Era can qualify possibly for the GOAT in many ways. Laver, for example, has over 200 tournaments won and was the top player for many years.
Gonzalez was possibly the best for a decade and one of the best for longer than that.
Vines played at amazingly high levels in the Pros before injuries took their toll. Tilden was virtually unbeatable for years and played forever. Kramer also played at very high levels for years.
There are still good reasons to support any of these players are the top player ever.
Nevertheless, Djokovic’s career surpasses just about anyone fairly easily when you look at Level of Play, no matter what the period of time you examine and what parameters you choose. There are only a few players in tennis history that can at least compete with Djokovic in terms of overall record.
Another milestone that probably will happen in 2024 for Djokovic is that he should reach 100 tournaments won and, in a few years, perhaps surpass Jimmy Connors’ official Open Era record of Tournaments won of 109. Although I believe Connors did win a number of tournaments more than his official record.
No doubt Djokovic has the greatest record of any player who has played his entire career in the Open Era.
The ATP Tour should, as usual, be fascinating in 2024.
Rafael Nadal is set to return in Brisbane next month.
Among the many intriguing questions we consider entering 2024:
*Will 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic break or shatter Margaret Court's all-time major mark of 24 Grand Slam titles?
*Will Novak make a run at the Golden Slam, sweeping all four major championships and the elusive Olympic gold medal, the only significant prize missing from his unmatched resume.
*How strong will Rafa be upon his return?
*Will we witness one final major duel between iconic champions Djokovic and Nadal, who have given us the most prolific rivalry in ATP history?
*Will we see Wimbledon winner Alcaraz and King of Clay Nadal join forces in a Spanish Olympic Dream Team as Alcaraz has suggested?
*Will Iga sustain her dominance as world No. 1?
*Can Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff or someone else supplant Swiatek as world No. 1?
*How will new moms Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber perform in their long-awaited comebacks?
*Will former Slam champions Emma Raducanu and Bianca Andreescu bounce back from injury-plagued seasons and play full seasons in 2024?
*Former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki pushed Coco Gauff to three sets at the US Open, can the woman nicknamed "Sunshine" recapture the winning vibes in Melbourne, site of her lone Grand Slam?
*Is Simona Halep's career effectively over? Or will we see former world No. 1 players Halep and Ash Barty launch comebacks someday?
These questions and many more will be fun to follow in 2024.
Happy New Year and Happy Tennis to you all!
Raymond Lee is a Tennis Now contributing writer and tennis historian who lives in New York. He has written about tennis for decades serving as a contributing writer for Tennis Week Magazine and TennisWeek.com.
Check out Raymond Lee's Articles: Star Turns: Top Tournament Performances in Tennis History, One for One: Who is the GOAT for One Match? Celebrating 50th Anniversary of John Newcombe's 1973 US Open Win, Why Novak Djokovic Can Win 30 Slams and Holy Grail: Why Winning the Calendar Grand Slam is Toughest Task in Sport.