By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, February 5, 2021

Quarantine claustrophobia has given way to Melbourne mania.

Scan the Australian Open men’s draw and it screams excitement event from the first round.

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The Australian Open begins on Monday. Here are our Top 5 Takeaways from the 2021 Australian Open draw.

Novak’s Ninth Symphony

Playing for his ninth Australian Open crown, Novak Djokovic will try to tap into his Melbourne muse and complete a second career three-peat down under.

Djokovic, who won three straight AO titles from 2011-2013, rides a 14-match AO winning streak into his opener vs. Frenchman Jeremy Chardy. The world No. 1 won the opening set in all 14 of those victories.

Who can pressure the world No. 1 in this field?

US Open champion Dominic Thiem, who held a two-sets to one lead over the Serbian in the 2020 final before falling in five, is Djokovic’s potential semifinal opponent in what would be a blockbuster.

The top seed’s potential path to the top-half semifinals:

• First Round vs. Jeremy Chardy
• Second Round vs. Frances Tiafoe/Stefano Travaglia winner
• Third Round vs. Taylor Fritz or Reilly Opelka
• Fourth Round vs. (14) Milos Raonic or (17) Stan Wawrinka
• Quarterfinals vs. (6) Alexander Zverev
• Semifinals vs. (3) Dominic Thiem

It’s a challenging draw—Wawrinka beat Djokovic in an epic 9-7 in the fifth set quarterfinal en route to the 2014 AO title and Zverev gave the Serbian a tough match in ATP Cup on Friday—which could hit a crescendo with a Djokovic-Thiem semifinal rematch.

Remember, Thiem edged Djokovic 7-6(5) in the third set in their last clash in the semifinals of the ATP Finals last November. However, Djokovic has been so dominant on this court they might have to consider rebranding the blue Rod Laver Arena hard court "Djokerland" to accompany the traditional "Melbourne" painted behind the baseline.

Rafa’s Run for History

Rafael Nadal hasn’t ruled Melbourne in 12 years since his heroic back-to-back five-set marathon wins over Fernando Verdasco in the semifinals and rival Roger Federer in the 2009 final.

The 34-year-old Nadal pulled the plug on his first two ATP Cup matches citing a back issue. Then there’s the fact Nadal hasn’t beaten Djokovic on a hard court since the 2013 US Open final, including a straight-sets loss in the 2019 final.

Still, if Nadal, who opens vs. Laslo Djere, is healthy he will be pumped to try to capture a men's record-extending 21st Grand Slam championship.

There are several reasons to be bullish on the raging bull making another deep run: Nadal has reached quarterfinals or better in 12 of his last 13 Melbourne appearances, three of his last four titles have come on hard court, including the 2019 US Open and he looked sharp and aggressive in his Day at the Drive exhibition match vs. Thiem.

Despite the layoff from match play, Nadal should be able to work his way into form in week one. The biggest potential obstacles for Nadal in the bottom half are:

• No. 16-seeded Fabio Fognini, who made history as the first man to fight back from a two-set deficit to beat Nadal at a Grand Slam in the 2015 US Open, is a potential fourth-round opponent though the theatrical Italian would likely have to beat Aussie Alex di Minaur or Tennys Sandren to get to Nadal.

• No. 5-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas was thoroughly thrashed by Nadal in the 2019 semifinals, but the dynamic Greek is a more polished player these days. Tsitsipas has taken a set off Nadal in each of their last two hard-court meetings and looms as a potential quarterfinal foe.

• No. 4-seeded Daniil Medvedev looms as Nadal’s semifinal opponent.

Medvedev made history in November topping Thiem 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 in the Nitto ATP Finals to become the first man in the event’s history to sweep through each of the ATP’s Top 3-ranked players. In London, the lanky Russian rallied past Nadal 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3 snapping the Spaniard’s streak of 71 straight victories when winning the opening set.

Top 3 Sustaining Big 3 Dominance

Big 3 fingerprints are all over the Norman Brooks Challenge Cup: the iconic trio of Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer have captured 14 of the last 15 Australian Open championships with only 2014 champion Stan Wawrinka breaking their Melbourne mastery.

The 39-year-old Federer will miss Melbourne due to quarantine concerns and continuing rehab on his surgically-repaired right knee ending his 21-year Melbourne streak while planning his comeback in Doha.

The Top 3 of Djokovic, Nadal and Dominic Thiem are the reigning Grand Slam champions and clearly strong favorites in Melbourne.

They are three of the fittest players in the sport and will enjoy the major benefit from spending their time in the softer Adelaide bubble where they were permitted more practice and training time with larger support teams than players who quarantined in the Melbourne bubble.

“I think Thiem and Medvedev are the two that I would think about [as AO title contenders],” Hall of Famer Chrissie Evert said. “I think Thiem especially has beaten all the top players, has a good record against them. Medvedev is so talented, has to be confident because he had a good year.

“To me, they have the game. It's just about them believing that they can beat the top three legends of the game. Nadal and Djokovic, if they stay the same or if they back off a little bit, they're going to get beaten.”

Maiden Major Threats

Three former ATP Finals champions—Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev—are all capable of breaking through to win a first Grand Slam title.

Daniil Medvedev not only ended 2020 sweeping successive titles in Paris and London—he scored seven straight Top 10 wins in the process. The 2019 US Open finalist has a massive wingspan that can suffocate opponents, can serve big when he desires and his a dangerous returner. Medvedev will need to be on point from the first round as he opens against former Wimbledon doubles champion Vasek Pospisil, a skilled serve-and-volleyer who will test the lanky Russian’s habit of hanging out near the back wall to return.



US Open finalist Alexander Zverev came agonizingly close to his first major title but failed to close against Thiem in Flushing Meadows. The former world No. 3 has been coping with off-court issues—an ex-girlfriend publicly charged him with abuse, another ex-girlfriend is set to give birth to his child and said she plans to raise the baby as a single parent and coach David Ferrer parted with the German at the end of 2020 saying he realized he is “not the right person” to help—and then there’s the case of Zverev’s sometime sporadic second serve. However, when he’s right, Zverev is a threat to anyone on this surface.

Sixth-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas is the youngest and most athletic of the three and may well have the highest upside. The athletic Greek can take the ball early, play all-court tennis and should be empower by his run to the Roland Garros semifinals.

First-Rounders to Watch

Jannik Sinner (ITA) vs. (11) Denis Shapovalov (CAN)
Head-to-head: First Meeting

Two of the most brilliant young ball strikers in the game. The left-handed Shapovalov is an explosive shotmaker and showed it reaching the US Open quarterfinals. The 36th-ranked Sinner, well-balanced off both wings, possesses one of the most explosive two-handers in the game and impressed toppling Zverev en route to the Roland Garros quarterfinals last September. Sinner became the first French Open debutant since Nadal in 2005 to each the quarterfinals.



(15) Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) vs. Kei Nishikori (JPN)
Head-to-head: Nishikori leads 1-0

If this lives up to their last meeting, look for fireworks.

Nishikori out-dueled Carreno Busta 678 46 764 64 768 in the 2019 AO fourth round. Carreno Busta is bigger, stronger and backed up his 2020 US Open semifinal with a trip to the Roland Garros quarterfinals. Nishikori can take the ball on the rise, his two-handed backhand is a stinging shot and he’s looking to recharge working with former Grand Slam doubles champion Max Mirnyi alongside long-time coach Michael Chang.



(18) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) vs. Marin Cilic (CRO)
Head-to-head: Cilic leads 4-2

Once upon a time—maybe as recently as 2017 when Dimitrov was a semifinalist or 2018 when Cilic reached the final losing to Federer— this collision could have come in the quarterfinals or semifinals.

These days, both veterans are seeking revitalizing runs. The 43rd-ranked Cilic is the better return who has won four of their five hard-court meetings, while Dimitrov is more agile and comfortable closing at net. Both have endured adventures on second serve, which adds an element of unpredictability.

(4) Daniil Medvedev (RUS) vs. Vasek Pospisil (CAN)
Head-to-head: Medvedev leads 2-1

Contrasting styles pits Pospisil’s proclivity for serve-and-volley against the 6’6” Medvedev’s metronomic ground game and chess master tactical skills. All three prior meetings have been tight with Pospisil scoring a 6-4, 6-3 win at the 2020 Rotterdam.

(9) Matteo Berrettini (ITA) vs. Kevin Anderson (RSA)
Head-to-head: First meeting

Battle of big men who can crush it on serve should provide classic first-strike tennis.

Both are at their best dictating play and both men hit flat and hard, which could create a match of opposing streaks.

Crowd Sourcing

Australian Open CEO Craig Tiley announced the tournament will allow 30,000 fans per day during week one.

That's a dramatic departure from the US Open, which was played behind closed doors, and Roland Garros, which allowed far fewer fans entrance.

Who will the crowd presence benefit? 

It should amp up the energy and intensity levels considerably, says Hall of Famer John McEnroe.

"Listen, when we see 10,000 fans at these NFL playoff games we're thrilled; 10,000 people, sounds like 70,000 people," ESPN lead analyst John McEnroe told the media in a conference call. "Any sport, any time, anywhere, you got to love seeing that. I guess that's the advantage of being isolated in a completely other side of the world in Australia, being an island that has 25 million people, they've been able to sort of shut it down completely.

"The upside is now that these players, presuming hopefully this thing is going to be okay with this worker and they don't get other tests, they're going to have a lot of people there. There's going to be an energy there that's going to be unreal."

 Draw Notes

• If Djokovic makes the final it would be his 8th Melbourne final in the last 11 years and his 28th career Grand Slam title match equaling Nadal for second place behind Roger Federer.

• If 34-year-old Nadal rules Melbourne it would be his record-extending seventh Grand Slam title since celebrating his 30th birthday.

• In his 19th AO appearance, ironman Feliciano Lopez is set to extend his men’s record with his 75th consecutive Grand Slam appearance. The 39-year-old Spaniard opens against Aussie wild card Li Tu.