By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, September 11, 2020

Surround sound and stirring storylines collide in the US Open final.

The blockbuster battle between Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka is a shared survivor’s story and a rematch of the Western & Southern Open final that wasn’t played.

More: Azarenka Stops Serena To Reach US Open Final

More: Osaka Battles By Brady for Second US Open Final

The 22-year-old Osaka conceded a walkover in that final due to a tight left hamstring.

The Flushing Meadows final of former world No. 1s pits two players aiming for a third career Grand Slam title.

The fourth-seeded Osaka has found her voice this year, while Azarenka has made a major statement on the power of resilience after nearly calling it quits in January.

Dancing around the court as if bopping to music she hears in her head, Azarenka looks revitalized competing with genuine joy.

“When you're coming up from kind of nothing, then you become a No. 1 player in the world, sometimes you can start to think you're invincible and that you're better than everybody, and it's not true,” Azarenka said. “So the ego starts to grow. It's very hurtful when it gets damaged, so...

“Instead of getting the ego damaged, I tried to remove that and learn from my mistakes of that ego, and realizing, maturing, that being a tennis player doesn't make you better or worse than anybody else, that you're still human, and all you can do is try to be the best version of yourself and keep improving.”

Contesting a Grand Slam final for the third straight year, Osaka is competing like a woman comfortable in her skin and confident in her game. 

"Honestly, I feel like the older you get, the more mentally strong you are," Osaka said. "I think that's something that you learn from being on the tour for such a long time, playing so many matches.

"But for me, definitely my goal during these two tournaments was to be more mentally strong and to, like, fight for every point. So that's what I'm going to go into the final with. Nothing is going to change that."

Watching these two aggressive baseliners compete with conviction and speak with purpose you get the feeling both champions are playing for a greater cause—in addition to a third Grand Slam crown and the $3 million champion’s check.

Four different women have won the last four Grand Slams.

Both finalists are unique stylists tuned into the muse. They will be ready to rock Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Here’s our US Open final preview and prediction.

(4) Naomi Osaka (JPN) vs. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)

Television: ESPN Saturday 4 p.m.

Head-to-Head: Osaka leads 2-1

Hard Court Head-to-Head: Azarenka leads 1-0

2020 Record: Azarenka 11-2; Osaka 15-3

US Open Record: Azarenka 40-12; Osaka 20-3

Best US Open Result: Osaka 2018 champion; Azarenka finalist in 2012, 2013, 2020.

Career Slam Final Record: Osaka 2-0; Azarenka 2-2

Career Three-Set Record: Azarenka 89-62; Osaka 38-19

2020 Three-Set Record: Azarenka 3-0; Osaka 6-1

Career Titles: Azarenka 21; Osaka 5

Naomi Osaka on Victoria Azarenka: “I played her twice, but the Roland Garros one is the most recent one that I remember. She seems really confident now. She's moving well. I don't try to think about other matches right after the match that I just finished. But it should be tough.”

Victoria Azarenka on Naomi Osaka: “Very excited about that. I'm as excited as I was last week. I'm sure this time we're going to get to play and it's going to be a great match. I think it's going to be an amazing final. I hope it will be. I'll have fun. But she's a very, very powerful player. She's a great champion. She's won two already. Aren't we both looking for a third one? It will be fun.”



Why Azarenka Will Win

Sniper Return

Missing your spot on second serve against Victoria Azarenka is like gargling a Molotov cocktail—you will get burned.

Azarenka leads the tournament with 31 breaks of serve. In the semifinals, the former world No. 1 won 17 of 27 points played on Serena Williams' second serve and broke the game’s most iconic server three times—one round after Serena smacked a tournament-best 20 aces in her quarterfinal conquest of Tsvetana Pironkova.

The Belarusian can belt the backhand return down the line to devastating effect, drive the return deep down the middle to handcuff the server or hit the sharp-angled return to drag the server off the court.

Ground Groove

One of the game’s purest ball strikers, Azarenka is timing the ball beautifully as she showed annihilating Elise Mertens in the quarterfinals and forcing Serena to defend for much of the final set of the semifinals.

Azarenka’s ability to read her opponents, hold the ball on her strings and change direction with precision pounding the ball down the lines has always been a special skill. Combine that with her improved fitness and ability to crank counterstrikes from the corners and you understand opening the court against Azarenka can open yourself to a stinging rebuke.

Vika also seems to exude more positive energy on court these days: she’s smiling frequently, acknowledging her opponent’s good shots and when Serena raised the decibel level of her grunts and drives Azarenka matched her note for note shot for shot.

Major Maturity

Motherhood has brought Azarenka her greatest joy in life— son Leo, who has watched his famous mom in action throughout this run—and brought clarity and purpose to her professional life.

The two-time Australian Open champion is savoring every moment on court these days after nearly closing the curtain on her career in January.

"In January, I didn't know if I was going to play at all," Azarenka said. "So end of January, I decided, You know what? I might try, last time, and see what happens. Yeah."

That decision has paid major dividends.

A profound performance in back-to-back tournaments reinforces Azarenka’s assets heading into her fifth major final: fitness, fierceness and clean and accurate ball-striking give Vika all the tools to raise the trophy on Saturday.

Azarenka knows this truth: If you can beat six-time US Open champion Serena on her home court, then you can beat anyone.

Why Osaka Will Win

Statement Serve

The serve is the most vital shot in the sport and Osaka’s searing serve will be the biggest shot on the court.

Osaka’s 35 aces through six matches is third most behind Serena (70) and Jennifer Brady (38). It’s more than the ace count that makes Osaka’s serve a statement shot—it’s her ability to dot all areas of the box and go big on the second serve when necessary as she showed in her semifinal win—that makes her so dangerous.

Earlier in the tournament, Osaka occasionally pulled a Patrick Rafter catching her stray toss with a polite “Sorry.” But lately she’s been snapping her serve with conviction. Osaka may want to jam some second serves into the body early because when Azarenka sets her feet and extends her arms on return—particularly on the wide serve—she spits back whip-lash returns.

Azarenka’s serve is not as fluid—she’s committed 17 double faults in six matches—and the faster Laykold court, which elicits a lower bounce should favor the bigger server. I can envision a tiebreak set in the final, Osaka served lights out in the breaker of her semifinal win.

Close Encounters

Closing a Grand Slam final demands guts and composure.

Osaka has not only shown closing power by winning both of her major finals—she’s done it under extreme duress.

Facing her idol Serena in the 2018 final, Osaka withstood both an overwhelming pro-Serena crowd and the former No. 1’s running feud with chair umpire Carlos Ramos and a controversial conclusion to capture her first major.

In a fierce 2019 Australian Open final of first-strike tennis, Osaka imposed the final word out-dueling Petra Kvitova, 7-6 (2), 5-7, 6-4, to claim her second straight Grand Slam title and become the first Asian singles player—male or female—to rise to the world No. 1 ranking.

If Osaka puts herself in a winning position in Saturday night’s, she won’t be playing on hope—she knows how to finish and can rely on those pressure-packed experiences when nerves spike.

Resonant Voice

Self-belief has helped propel Osaka during her 10-match winning streak and helped her problem solve in tight tests: Osaka has won six of seven three-setters this season.

This was a woman once so shy and insecure around other players she avoided using the player locker room because she wasn’t fully convinced she belonged.

Now, she’s emerged as a leading voice in sport using her platform to support social and racial justice. Walking onto court throughout the Open, Osaka has paid tribute to African American victims of violence—she’s worn the names of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Philando Castile, Trayvon Martin and Ahmaud Arbery—on her mask and spoke about how moved she was seeing a video from the families of Arbery and Martin expressing gratitude for her gesture of support.

“I was just trying really hard not to cry,” Osaka said. “It's extremely touching that they would feel touched by what I'm doing. … It was really emotional.”

Using her voice to promote positive change, Osaka has broken through this COVID-19 safety bubble connecting with people all over the world. Playing for something greater than yourself can be emotionally empowering— and Osaka is proving that playing with passion throughout this tournament.



Prediction

“What we play is life,” jazz legend Louis Armstrong once said of his music.

Life experience have empowered both champions elevating their games to inspired levels in this freaky Flushing Meadows bubble.

Quarantine life has revitalized the competitive spark in both woman and both have learned in his Coronavirus-shortened season that chasing milestones is a worthy pursuit, but it all comes down to making the most of these moments.

Both finalists are unique stylists tuned into the muse. Based on the excellence of a pair of pulsating semifinals, both will be ready to rock Arthur Ashe Stadium.

While it’s a pity there won’t be a crowd there to enjoy their efforts and respond with the electrical energy New Yorkers can bring, I believe sterile conditions will bring it all back to the booming business at hand.

Azarenka has delivered two of the most dynamic of her career in succession and she looks poised to continue a masterful mom’s march to her first US Open title—seven years after her last Flushing Meadows final. 

Clearly, this is Azarenka's time and her tournament and I can’t find fault if you favor Vika.

Still, Osaka has exuded a zen calm in the face of whatever chaos and controversy life and tennis has thrown at her. Osaka owns the biggest weapon on the court and she’s shown the courage to unleash it against future Hall of Famers in past Grand Slam finals. Osaka's sense of self-belief has never seemed stronger, her running forehand has been a key stroke throughout this tournament and can be in the final as well.

I think we’re in for a tremendous final—a tie break set conceivable—and I see Osaka relying on her poise and power to prevail.

The Pick: Naomi Osaka defeats Victoria Azarenka in 3 sets