By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, November 12, 2020
Defending ATP Finals champion Stefanos Tsitsipas is the fifth man in the last five years to rule London.
Photo credit: ATP Finals Facebook
The ATP Finals celebrates its golden year this weekend.
The prestigious season-ending tournament will demand players deliver precious mettle to meet the moment.
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The 50th anniversary of the elite eight-man event marks its final season in London with three former champions highlighting the field.
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic leads the Group Tokyo 1970 alongside US Open finalist Alexander Zverev, Paris Masters champion Daniil Medvedev and ATP Finals debutant Diego Schwartzman.
Second-ranked Rafael Nadal, defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, US Open champion Dominic Thiem and Finals newcomer Andrey Rublev headlines Group London 2020 in round-robin play.
View the complete ATP Finals draw here.
We consider five key questions ahead of the ATP Finals, which starts on Sunday at the O2 Arena in London with defending-champion Tsitsipas taking on third-seeded Thiem in a rematch of the 2019 title match followed by Nadal vs. the seventh-seeded Rublev.
Which Group is Toughest?
The Tokyo Group boasts two former ATP Finals champions in five-time champion Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, who knocked off John Isner, Roger Federer and Djokovic in succession to capture the 2018 title.
The seventh-ranked Zverev has posted a 21-3 record reaching four finals in his last five tournaments since losing his Western & Southern opener to Andy Murray in August. Three of Zverev’s last four titles have come indoors.
Djokovic’s .782 career winning percentage indoors is by far the best of any player in the field.
Additionally, Daniil Medvedev, while winless in his 2019 tournament debut, is coming off his third career Masters 1000 title at the Rolex Paris Masters. The lanky Russian’s flat strikes play well with a closed ceiling—four of Medvedev’s eight career titles have come indoors.
Will Nadal Breakthrough?
It’s been a season of milestone moments for Nadal, who collected his 13th Roland Garros crown to equal rival Roger Federer’s record winning his 20th Grand Slam title. Nadal surpassed the 1,000 career victory and now sets his sights on the year-end title that has eluded him.
Launching his 10th appearance at the ATP Finals, Nadal is playing for his first trip to the title match since he fell to Djokovic in the 2013 final and his first semifinal in five years.
It won’t be easy.
The typically faster blue hard court elicits a lower bounce which does not reward the second-ranked Spaniard’s twisting topspin nearly as much as some outdoor hard courts. Nadal’s deep court positioning on return can make it challenging for him to wrench control of rallies when he’s behind. The 2019 US Open champion has played just four indoor matches this season and his lone Top 10 win came in the Roland Garros final when he demolished Djokovic.
Nadal, who has won just two of his 86 career titles indoors, said he's hoping for better things time around. Nadal opens against the seventh-seeded Rublev, who grew up looking up to the second-seeded Spaniard, on Sunday.
“We can find excuses or reasons, but at the end of the day the numbers are the numbers," Nadal said of his indoor struggles. "I think I play less indoors than other surfaces without a doubt if we compare indoors to outdoors in my tennis career. The indoor surfaces have not been ideal for my tennis game since the beginning of my career.
"I think I’m able to play a little bit better the last couple of years indoors without a doubt. That’s the numbers I can’t say something different. I hope to change that this week. I'm going to keep trying my best as I did all my tennis career and I hope to give myself chances."
Still, Nadal arrives in London fresh and fit, he beat defending champion Tsitsipas in round-robin play last year and while Group rival Dominic Thiem toppled Nadal at the Australian Open in January, US Open champion Thiem suffered a foot injury in his last match in Vienna.
Who is the Favorite?
London often brings out the best in Djokovic and look for the top seed to bring his best next week.
The five-time Wimbledon winner has won four of his five ATP Finals crowns at the O2 Arena, including a streak of five straight finals in London from 2012-2016.
In fact, from 2003 to 2015, Djokovic and Federer combined to collect 11 of the 13 ATP Finals championships.
It’s been five years since the world No. 1 last lifted the ATP Finals trophy, which should infuse Djokovic with energy and urgency to finish his record-tying sixth season as year-end No. 1 with a title bang.
More importantly, Djokovic is the best hard-court and indoor player in the field and most effective transitioning from defense to offense on this surface.
This crazy Covid-19 interrupted season has seen Djokovic suffer some painful setbacks—he accidentally hit a lineswoman in the throat prompting his default from the US Open fourth round and got smoked by the king of clay in last month’s Roland Garros final—yet Djokovic opted against defending his Rolex Paris Masters title last week preferring to train for London, which should pay dividends.
Who is the Darkhorse?
Watch out for Andrey Rublev.
Swinging with the menacing speed of a man intent on contorting the ball with every strike, heavy-metal head-banger Rublev has won an ATP-best five titles and leads the Tour with a 40-8 record in 2020.
True, Rublev doesn’t have a winning record against any of his rivals in Group London and understandably will feel the jitters in his ATP Finals debut.
Yet, Rublev has topped Thiem in both meetings this year, including Vienna last month, and when he’s in rhythm the hard-hitting Russian can take the ball earlier than most in his group. Once Rublev starts dictating rallies, he is very tough to shake off the offensive.
The fact this edition of the ATP Finals won’t feature fans should diminish the stress test the Moscow-born baseliner feels. And you can argue that Tsitsipas, bidding to become the first man since Djokovic in 2015 to successfully defend the title, Nadal, playing for his first ATP Finals crown and Thiem, who has played just eight matches since rallying past Zverev to win his maiden major at the US Open, may all encounter more pressure than the debutant.
What Changes Will We See?
This 50th anniversary edition of the ATP Finals ends the tournament’s enormously successful 12-year run in London that has welcome more than 2.75 million fans during that span. Next year, the will be staged at Turin’s Pala Alpitour stadium, Italy’s largest indoor sporting arena, starting a five-year span in Italy.
No fans will be permitted inside the massive 20,000-seat O2 Arena for this London farewell. Though players, coaches and some media will be on hand, the sunken court and black backdrop devoid of the 250,000 fans who attended the eight-day event last year will create a dramatically different atmosphere this year with solitude amplifying the sound of the ball and magnifying player reactions and frustrations.
The ATP is enforcing a “strict bubble” with players staying at the adjacent InterContinental hotel—a short walk to the O2—and not permitted to be outside.
The tournament will be played without lines people marking the first time Hawk-Eye live will be used in the ATP Finals.
Spiking Coronavirus cases prompted British prime minister Boris Johnson to lock down England through December 2nd. Without fans and ticket sales, prize money has been reduced from $9 million to $5.7 million.
We’ve seen five different champions over the past five years—Djokovic (2015), Andy Murray (2016), Grigor Dimitrov (2017), Zverev (2018) and Tsitsipas (2019)—will that trend continue?
We shall see.
Tennis Channel’s coverage of the elite eight-man event starts on Sunday at 7 a.m. Eastern time.
ESPN's coverage of both singles and doubles begins Sunday, November 15th with the first of four days of action on ESPN3 with round-robin matches at 7 a.m., 9 a.m., 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. Eastern time.
Starting Thursday, November 19th, ESPN3 will continue to present matches not on live TV. That day and Friday, ESPN2 will show singles matches at 3 p.m.
On Saturday, Semifinal No. 1 airs on ESPNEWS at 9 a.m., and at 3 p.m. the second semifinal will be broadcast live on ESPN3. It will air on ESPN2 on Sunday at 6 a.m.
On Sunday, November 22nd, ESPN3 will show the Doubles Championship at 10:30 a.m. and the Singles Championship will be live on ESPN2 starting at 1 p.m.