By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Thursday January 16, 2020
The Australian Open draws were revealed on Thursday night in Melbourne, and with them came a heightened sense of excitement about the fortnight to come (and hope that the air quality continues to improve). The stage is set for several marquee early-round matchups, a few blockbuster week one clashes and—of course—some Mega week two battles (if the seeds hold).
Without any further ado let’s get into some of the key takeaways from the Australian Open men’s and women’s singles draws.
Naomi Osaka’s Potential Quarterfinal with Serena Williams
The subject of Serena Williams' quest for a 24th major title will no doubt be front and center during the next few days and throughout week one in Melbourne, provided that Williams makes her way into the second week. When Williams was in her prime the draw really didn't matter all that much because everything was on her racquet, but more than ever it is important for Serena to have things break her way draw-wise. She’s not the player she was in her prime and for her to go through several grueling matches in succession would make a title run that much more difficult to achieve.
Unfortunately for Williams, it looks like she’ll have to do things the hard way this year in Melbourne. She’s in a loaded section of the draw, and if she does get through to the quarters (who would bet against that?) she could have to face Osaka, the defending champion, there.
Not saying Serena can’t do it (who would be so stupid?), just saying that this is not the dream draw and Williams will have to be on top of things from the get go.
Medvedev’s Draw is Quite Workable
An opening round tilt with one of last year’s quarterfinalists at Melbourne could prove tricky for Daniil Medvedev, but beyond that having Alexander Zverev as the next highest seed in his quarter could prove to make things easier for the World No.4 if he progresses to week two. Based on what we saw from Medvedev at ATP Cup, the Russian looks poised to prove that his 2019 season was not a fluke—and he has the perfect draw to make that statement with.
Federer’s is the Trickiest Big 3 Draw?
A potential second-rounder with Filip Krajinovic, a potential third-rounder with Hubert Hurkacz and a potential round of 16 clash with Denis Shapovalov. On paper they all look like wins for the six-time Aussie Open champ but if each of these young guys takes a chunk out of Federer’s 38-year-old hide it could leave the 20-time major champ a little ragged by the time the quarters roll around.
Federer’s potential quarterfinal opponent is Italy’s Matteo Berrettini. After that he’d face Novak Djokovic if the seeds held. Rough road indeed, just to get to the semis, let alone further. And that's why the tone of his matches in rounds two, three and four will be paramount for Federer. He needs to carry out a few vintage beatdowns so he has some energy left for the challenges that lurk in week two.
One More Word about Osaka’s Quarter
It’s a loaded quarter alright, but the good news for Osaka and Serena Williams is that many of the top players in this section may knock each other off and never end up facing either of the two.
William’s potential third-round opponent is China’s Wang Qiang, who took one game off of the American at last year’s US Open. In the fourth round Williams could face Johanna Konta or Dayana Yastremska or—who knows?—Caroline Wozniacki.
Osaka’s potential third-round opponent would be Barbora Strycova if the seeds hold, and her potential fourth-round opponent could be Sofia Kenin or Sloane Stephens.
Point being, there’s a lot of great players in this quarter, but the way the draw unfolds means it might not make the section any more difficult for Williams and/or Osaka to power into the quarters.
Nadal’s Draw is Perhaps as Rough as Federer’s?
Rafael Nadal could potentially face Nick Kyrgios or Karen Khachanov in the round of 16 and Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals. The real toughness of this draw could be different from the perceived toughness if these three players don’t produce at their top level at the Australian Open. But if one of Kyrgios and Khachanov goes on a run, and Thiem plays his top-level hard court tennis, Nadal could be in for some rough matches to get to the semis. Hypothetically, Nadal facing Kyrgios followed by Thiem, followed by Daniil Medvedev and then—if he somehow survives—Novak Djokovic is a really rough road.
It’s difficult to project how things can break in a draw of 128, with a quarter of 32. We know Nadal will be there round after round, the question is who will be coming up against and how much can they push him? If "the field" plays to its potential they could make things very difficult for Nadal.
Quarter of Death Candidate: Karolina Pliskova’s Quarter is Also Mega Tricky
There is a tendency by the media to want to label Osaka’s quarter as the official quarter of death but how about the quarter on the bottom half of the draw, which is anchored by Karolina Pliskova?
It also features former champion Angelique Kerber, former Grand Slam champion Garbiñe Muguruza, Kiki Bertens, Marketa Vondrousova, Amanda Anisimova, Anastasija Sevastova and the second highest seeded player in the draw, Elina Svitolina.
There should be some great second, third and fourth round matchups in this section, such as potential matchups between: Muguruza v Sevastova R2, Anisimova v Bertens R3, Vondrousova v Kerber R3 and Pliskova v Pavlyuchenkova R3.