By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, November 8, 2019

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic split the Grand Slam spoils this season.

The world's top two-ranked players arrived in London residing in different round-robin groups while sharing the same mission: Seizing the year-end world No. 1 ranking.

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World No. 1 Nadal leads the Andre Agassi group alongside defending ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev and newcomers Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The second-ranked Djokovic and rival Roger Federer head the Bjorn Borg group along with ATP Finals debutant Matteo Berrettini and two-time Roland Garros runner-up Dominic Thiem.

We consider five key questions ahead of the ATP Finals, which start on Sunday at the O2 Arena in London.

Who will finish as year-end world No. 1?

At this point, given Djokovic played dynamic tennis winning his fifth Rolex Paris Masters crown last week, while Nadal was forced to retire before his scheduled semifinal due to a strained abdominal, you have to favor the Wimbledon champion.

Nadal holds a 640-point lead over Djokovic, but the US Open champion has yet to win the season-ending title in 14 prior appearances.

Both will be extremely driven and both men are playing for history.

The 33-year-old Nadal is aiming to secure the season-ending top spot for the fifth time and become the oldest year-end No. 1 in ATP history.

Djokokovic is a five-time ATP Finals champion, including sweeping the season-ending finale four times in a row from 2012 to 2015. If Djokovic, who dominated Nadal in the Australian Open final in January, recaptures the top spot he will equal Pete Sampras' mark of six seasons holding the year-end No. 1 ranking—and match Federer's record winning his sixth ATP Finals crown.

Will Roger Federer reach the final four?

Yes, barring injury the oldest man in the field should make his 10th straight semifinal appearance.

Though the 38-year-old Swiss struggled to shake the heart break of failing to convert a pair of championship points in a gut-wrenching 7-6 (5), 1-6, 7-6 (4), 4-6, 13-12 (3) defeat to Djokovic in the Wimbledon final that was the Championships' longest final—and first men’s major final decided in a fifth-set tie breaker—Federer tuned up for London home-schooling the field winning his 10th Basel title last month.

While the Basel field was obviously not nearly as deep as the elite eight in London, Federer's charge to his 103rd career title showed us he can still dazzle indoors.

The six-time ATP Finals champion traditionally enjoys massive support in London, wisely skipped the Rolex Paris Masters and should be energized and eager for his Sunday night opener vs. Thiem, whom he topped 6-2, 6-3 in London last year.

The O2 Arena's indoor hard court rewards Federer's creativity, skill taking the ball on the rise and all-court virtuosity. Federer owns the record for most ATP Finals victories boasting a 57-15 mark.

Which debutant will have the most success?

Three young players—Berrettini, Tsitsipas and Medvedev—debut at the season-ending finale.

Look for Medvedev, whose streak of six straight finals ended in Paris, to make the most noise of the newcomers.

The US Open finalist enters with a 59-18 record—most wins of any man in the field—with 45 coming on hard court. To put that mark in perspective, consider the 23-year-old Russian's 59 wins this year are just two fewer victories than the 23-year-old Berretini has his entire career.

The fourth-ranked Russian's flat strikes, ability to bend his backhand into all areas and expansive reach should suit the hard court. Medvedev can be maddening because his style is so unique—and he's fourth on the ATP Tour in return games won this season (29 percent) behind only Nadal, Djokovic and Diego Schwartzman.



How will Alexander Zverev respond to the pressure of his title defense?

Will we see the Zverev who rocked the radar gun knocking off three Top 10 players in succession—John Isner, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic—en route to his biggest career title at the 2018 ATP Finals? Or the sometime cranky competitor who lost to Federer and Jack Sock in three-setters and failed to survive the round-robin stage at his 2017 debut?

It's an over-simplification to say Zverev will go as far as his serve takes him, but clearly he's got to serve with confidence and command to make a semifinal return. A year ago, Zverev was nearly untouchable on serve becoming the youngest ATP Finals champion since a 21-year-old Djokovic defeated Nikolay Davydenko to raise the 2008 title.

Given Zverev's lone title this season came on red clay at the 250-level Geneva Open, he's show some major second-serve struggles including spitting up a career-worst 20 double faults in a horrific Cincinnati opening-round exit, saw his highly-hyped partnership with Ivan Lendl fizzle and conceded a confidence crisis while battling a lawsuit filed by ex-agent Patricio Apey, it's tough to imagine he can regain the mojo he showed in London last year.

That's why his Monday night match with Nadal is crucial for both men.



Who could surprise?

Barring injury, the prospect of a final devoid of the Big 3 seems as likely as leaping the London Eye in a single bound.

However, Dominic Thiem—who has scored wins over Nadal, Djokovic and Federer this season—has improved his hard-court game this year as he showed surprising 20-time Grand Slam champion Federer in the Indian Wells final in March.

The two-time Roland Garros runner-up has captured three of his five titles in 2019 on hard courts, a sign of his progress and confidence.

Working with two-time Olympic gold-medal champion Nicolas Massu, Thiem has tried to adopt more aggressive court-positioning, has occasionally serve-and-volleyed on fast courts and has sharpened his front-court feel and ability to play sharper angles.

The problem for Thiem, who resides in the Bjorn Borg group alongside Djokovic, Federer and Berrettini, is he'll likely have to beat one of the iconic champions to make the semifinals for the first time in four London appearances.


A bigger surprise would be an all one-handed backhand final.

The last time that happend was back in 2006 when Federer crushed James Blake 6-0, 6-3, 6-4 when the final was staged in Shanghai.