By Chris Oddo | Thursday January 10, 2019

The Aussie Open draws are out and now that I’ve spent 12 hours staring at them and mulling the myriad first-round popcorn encounters that are about to go down in Melbourne, it’s a good time to put down some big picture thoughts about the 2019 Australian Open.

Here goes:

1. Sabalenka a Hot Pick, but What Does Smart Money Say?

We are all on the Aryna Sabalenka bandwagon together, and rightfully so, but when we see sentiment turn so positive on a specific WTA player ahead of a major that’s a good cue for a deeper dive.

Chris Evert, in an ESPN conference call, came out and said that she believes that Sabalenka will win multiple majors in the next few years, and many pundits have made the 20-year-old Belarusian their pick for the title.

She’s certainly blossoming, and a world-class talent that appears to be dead set on becoming a Top 5 player, but there’s also this indisputable fact:

Sabalenka has only played five majors in her career, and she has only won four matches, three of which came at the 2018 U.S. Open. Those numbers don’t give a clear indication of where the World No.11 is at as a talent but we also think it’s worth it to consider that experience means a lot in tennis, especially at the majors, and until Sabalenka picks up more of it she may not be ready to win one of these events.

Don’t get me wrong: I am very bullish on Sabalenka’s long-term prospects as a major title winner, but also hesitant to write her in as a favorite at a major where she has yet to win a main draw match. Her draw makes me want to be even more cautious. A qualifier in round one, Potentially the ever dangerous Ekaterina Makarova in round two, potentially the very talented and experienced Lesia Tsurenko in round three, and potentially Petra Kvitova, who just defeated her in Brisbane in round of 16—all that just to reach a first major quarterfinal.

2. Did Rafa Get the Draw He Needed?

I’ve been thinking of Rafael Nadal as not much of a factor ahead of the Australian Open and I am fully aware of the fact that I am completely stupid to do that. It's preposterous--he's a 17-time major champion that hardly lost a match last season.

It’s just that Nadal and hardcourts have created this toxic cocktail of late, and it always seems to end badly for the Spaniard when it comes to hardcourt events and his health. Thus, when Nadal pulled out of Brisbane citing lower body concerns, I immediately pivoted from believing he could win the title in Melbourne to believing that he would need a very good draw to get through to the quarters or semis unscathed, so that he may lay it all on the line on the final weekend.

In short, I have him as my No.3 favorite, decidedly behind Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. But that could change if things break the Spaniard's way in week one.

So what did Rafa’s draw tell us? He could face Federer in the semis, and that’s not such a horrible thing. What is really important for the 17-time major champion is that he not have to play back-to-back physical matches like he did at the U.S. Open, where the triple effect of Karen Khachanov, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Dominic Thiem rendered him a shell of his former self against Juan Martin Del Potro in the semis.

It looks like Nadal could, if healthy and in form, breeze through the first two rounds and then the big test will be getting through a potential third-round clash with Alex De Minaur and a potential round of 16 clash with Kyle Edmund or Diego Schwartzman with relative ease. If he does that he could be looking at Kevin Anderson and Roger Federer to get to the final.

Of course I am projecting here and the draw could break many ways, some of them good for Rafa, some of them bad. The key for Nadal will be time on court and physicality. The longer he goes without having to fight tooth and nail to advance, the better off he’ll be in the later rounds, and the better chances he’ll have of taking this title home.



3. Yes, We Have a Quarter of Death on the Women's Side

Okay, the top quarter of the women’s singles draw is a bit out of control. It’s like their was a magnet pointing north when they pulled the names to make this section and they all got sucked up to the top quarter. “Death” quarters are always fun, but darn if they don’t make navigating a title run all the more tricky for the unlucky players in that section. If you have to fight with so many big names and contest so many big matches just to get to the quarters, what do you have left when judgment day comes at the end of week two?

We may find out, as Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova, Garbiñe Muguruza, Venus Williams and Daria Kasatkina are all in this section.

There’s 33 major titles in those six aforementioned names, if you’re scoring at home.

There’s also Camila Giorgi, Mihaela Buzarnescu, Timea Bacsinszky, Carla Suarez Navarro and I could go on.

Of particular interest are first-round tilts between Halep and Kaia Kanepi, who stunned the Romanian out of the U.S. Open last year, and Venus Williams and Buzarnescu. If Halep somehow gets past Kanepi and other landmines to reach the round of 16, Serena could be waiting. And whoever makes the quarters from that section could have to deal with Muguruza or Pliskova.

It bodes well for Naomi Osaka, who has a favorable draw in the other quarter of this section, and won’t have to face anybody ranked higher than Elina Svitolina’s No.6 to reach the semis. And we all know how reliable Svitolina has been at the Slams in her career.

4. Gosh, There Are Some Great First-Rounders

Nick Kyrgios’ prospects of winning the Australian Open or even reaching the second week don’t excite me, but dang do the prospects of watching Kyrgios battle Milos Raonic in the first round inspire popcorn dreams.

The pair have split six previous meetings and even though Kyrgios is seriously rusty and has claimed that he has no clue what to do from the baseline when his vaunted serve doesn’t give him complete control of the points thus far this season, he still figures to put Raonic on the defensive in what promises to be a dramatic encounter of two of the best servers in the game.

That’s not the only first-round match to be drooling over. Rejuvanated Tomas Berdych and Kyle Edmund should be a cracker, as should Stan Wawrinka against Ernests Gulbis. Strangely, the winners of those two matches will square off in the second round.

The aforementioned tilt between Simona Halep and Kaia Kanepi should be great, as should Dayana Yastremska and Sam Stosur. It’s always crazy how much excitement there is when Stosur plays at the Aussie Open, and Yastremska is a rapidly rising teenager that will be ready to take her scalp (and her first win at a major) if Stosur plays with any hesitation.

Andy Murray vs Roberto Bautista Agut promises to be must-watch as well. Murray made headlines when he played practice sets with Novak Djokovic on Thursday, and while he didn't get the better of the Serb, who better to practice with than the best. Bautista Agut, meanwhile, is coming off the Doha title and a win over Djokovic in the semis. Not only is Bautista Agut in good form he also has some pretty good history at the Australian Open with three career round of 16 appearances. It'll be a tough opener for Murray, who is still seeking match tougness and is surrounded by doubts about his long-term prospects after his hip surgery from last year.

No.7-seeded Dominic Thiem against Benoit Paire could be a fun encounter as well. Thiem won their only meeting at the Aussie Open in 2017 in four sets. Not many people are predicting much from Thiem but let’s not forget that he is trending up on hardcourts. Thiem has reached the round of 16 in his last two appearances at Melbourne.

10th-seeded Daria Kasatkina (0-2 on the season) will be desperate for a win against talented Timea Bacsinszky, and their first-round encounter has the potential to be a stylish and competitive match. And if it’s fire and passion you want, check out Yulia Putintseva vs. Barbora Strycova. Putintseva took their last meeting at Roland Garros in 2018, but Strycova holds the 2-1 lifetime edge.