By Chris Oddo | Friday January 26, 2018
Ahead of tonight’s second men’s singles semifinal, we ask three burning questions that pertain to the Roger Federer vs. Hyeon Chung matchup. The tennis world is wondering if the 21-year-old Korean can push 19-time major champion Roger Federer in a best-of-five match on one of the game’s biggest stages. Here are three things that absolutely must happen for Chung to have any traction in this contest.
How Will Chung’s Return Games Go?
It’s easy to boil down the match between Federer and Chung to experience, but if experience was all that mattered then why even walk through the tunnel and onto the playing surface at Rod Laver Arena? The 36-year-old Federer is bidding to reach his 30th major final while Chung, nearly 15 years his junior, is bidding for his first as an unseeded player that nobody gave much credit to before the event started.
Well, Chung is getting his credit now, and he’s been an absolute pleasure to watch in Melbourne. He started the week as a dynamo that absolutely dominated the baseline and as his competition has stiffened he has maintained his advantage from a rallying perspective, even against the likes of Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev.
Chung broke Djokovic’s serve six times and he engineered another four breaks against each Tennys Sandgren and Zverev. It’s not all that surprising because before the tournament started the ATP had Chung ranked as its ninth-best returner over the 52 weeks prior. But Chung will be facing one of the best servers in tennis history, on a hard court, in his first major semifinal--that's a lot to digest even for an uber-talented youngster that clearly deserves mention among the rising stars of the game. It sure seems like an overwhelming task for the Korean. He’ll probably need more than a few breaks of serve to pull this upset, because Chung will likely surrender his share of breaks--his serve is probably one of the areas that he needs to improve above all the rest.
Through five matches in Melbourne Chung has faced 33 break points in his last three matches and saved 23 of them. Meanwhile, Federer faced five against Tomas Berdych and zero in the match before that. He’s capable of erasing even the best returner with pinpoint serving and aggressive first-ball combos, so Chung will need to do as much damage as he possibly can against the second serve of the Swiss to have chances in return games. Is he capable of it? Yes. But the execution, particularly for a young player who has never played a match of this magnitude, against a player he has never faced, will be key.
Can Chung Dominate the Baseline, and Make it Matter?
Chung has been one of the best from the baseline in Australia. He had won 60 percent of his baseline points prior to his round of 16 match with Djokovic, but he’ll need to be as dominant against Federer, given the Swiss’ ability to win points with serve-forehand combos or serve-and-volley. According to ATP stat enthusiast Craig O’Shannessy, Federer won less than 50 percent of his baseline points last year and that didn’t keep him from winning the tournament. Chung will need to be dominant from the baseline to win—just having the edge likely won’t be enough.
Chung’s Passing Game Will Be Tested; How Will He Respond?
One of the more interesting matchups will be the aggressive net game of Federer against the passing shots of Chung. If the Korean really models himself after Novak Djokovic, he’ll need to prove it when the heat is on and Federer is coming in behind approach shots that are angled into the corners. Chung has been magical at digging out of the corners in Australia, and it will be imperative that he provides some of that magic tonight.