By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, September 7, 2018
" Even when I was a little kid, I always dreamed that I would play Serena in a final of a Grand Slam," said Naomi Osaka.
Photo credit: Miami Open Facebook
NEW YORK—Love hurts.
A giggling Naomi Osaka sent a declaration of devotion to her tennis idol Serena Williams ahead of their US Open final clash.
Watch: Serena Streaks Into 31st Major Final
"I love you," Osaka quipped after fending off all 13 break points she faced dismissing Madison Keys to make history as the first woman representing Japan to reach a Grand Slam final in the Open Era.
Affection escalated to annihilation when the pair met in Miami in March.
Empowered by her run to the Indian Wells title, Osaka obliterated a rusty Williams, 6-3, 6-2, without facing a break point.
Facing her former crush for the first time, Osaka ruthlessly ripped Williams' second serve winning 18 of 26 points played on the second delivery and converting four of eight break points.
The eight-time Miami Open champion was so distraught by that Key Biscayne blow-out, she blew off the customary post-match press conference.
That humbling setback was Williams' wake-up call.
Miami was just the fourth match of Williams' comeback following the complicated birth of daughter Alexis Olympia last September.
Since Miami, Williams has won 16 of 19 matches roaring into her 31st career Grand Slam final and second straight major title match.
A 25 to 1 long-shot to take the title before the tournament began, the explosive Osaka absolutely owns the firepower to topple the greatest Grand Slam champion in Open Era history.
The question is: Does she have the nerve?
History comes to court in Saturday's final.
The 36-year-old American is playing to equal Margaret Court's all-time record claiming her 24th Grand Slam championship and Open Era record seventh US Open title and break her own record by becoming the oldest Grand Slam champion.
The 20-year-old Osaka, who was born in Japan and lived in New York from about the age of three to about 11 when she moved to Florida, is bidding to become the first woman representing Japan to win a Grand Slam title in the Open Era.
Our US Open women's preview here:
(17) Serena Williams (USA) vs. (20) Naomi Osaka (JPN)
Head-to-head: Osaka leads 1-0
Williams' Key Stat: 78 percent first-serve points won
Osaka's Key Stat: 59 percent second-serve points won
Williams 2018 Record: 18-5
Osaka 2018 Record: 32-15
Williams on Osaka: "Well, it was good that I played her because I kind of know how she plays now. I mean, I was breast-feeding at the time, so it was a totally different situation. It was what it was. I mean, hopefully I won't play like that again. I can only go up from that match."
Osaka on Williams: "Even when I was a little kid, I always dreamed that I would play Serena in a final of a Grand Slam. Just the fact that it's happening, I'm very happy about it. At the same time I feel like even though I should enjoy this moment, I should still think of it as another match. Yeah, I shouldn't really think of her as, like, my idol. I should just try to play her as an opponent."
Why Osaka Will Win
1. Disruptive Explosiveness
Serena can get freaked out by opponents who can hammer their serves, rip returns and redirect her power with strikes down the line. Osaka does all that and can hit every corner of the box with a variety of spins and speeds on serve.
There is no blue print for beating Serena, but imposing first-serve, first-strike tennis was the key to Samantha Stosur surprising Williams in the 2012 US Open final, to Garbiñe Muguruza toppling Williams in the 2016 Roland Garros final and to Karolina Pliskova beating Williams in the 2016 US Open semifinals. Osaka has the formula and firepower to do the same.
2. Self Belief
Osaka won't play this final on hope. She knows she can beat Serena because she's already done it and forced the new mom to counter from her back foot for much of their first match.
The 20-year-old playing her maiden major final should also benefit from the fact there is always more pressure on Williams in her continued quest for Grand Slam history and the fact Osaka's coach, Sascha Bajin, was Serena's hitting partner, friend and close confidante for several years. Bajin knows Williams' vulnerabilities better than any coach. He knows Osaka must hold serve, attack Williams' second serve and command the center of the court, which she did in Miami.
3. Fresh Fearlessness
Flushing Meadows rewards youthful fearlessness. Young stars who play big and bold ranging from Jimmy Connors to Pete Sampras to Serena Williams have erupted in career-changing finals in New York.
Osaka is not oblivious to pressure, in fact she conceded to being so uptight she was shaking before crushing Lesia Tsurenko in the quarterfinals. Yet she plays with a fearless freedom and easy power that stresses Serena, accustomed to being the biggest hitter against every opponent.
You can make the case this match will play out like the famed 2000 US Open final when a 20-year-old Marat Safin shocked a heavily-favored Pete Sampras shattering one of the game's greatest servers to win his maiden major and leave an impressed Sampras to remark Safin "reminds me of me."
Why Williams Will Win
1. Iconic Records, Ultimate Motivation
One win from equaling the all-time major record, Williams will not falter after falling in a jittery Wimbledon final. Serena can claim her 24th Grand Slam title, equaling Margaret Court's all-time record and solidifying her status as the world's most iconic female athlete.
Williams is playing for an Open Era record seventh US Open championship and a record $3.8 million champion's check, amping up her her electric energy level even more. Major finals are the reason Williams is still playing nineteen years after her first US Open crown.
2. Serving Strength
Rhythmically swinging her right arm, Williams has regained the serving variety that eluded her at Wimbledon. Mixing her wrecking ball serve down the T with the slider out wide, Williams has slashed a tournament-best 64 aces and won 78 percent of her first-serve points. She rocketed a 121 mph serve, the fastest of the fortnight, cranked 18 aces in her fourth-round win over Kaia Kanepi and 13 aces conquering Karolina Pliskova, the last woman to beat Williams in New York.
The biggest weapon in the history of women's tennis has been firing with accuracy and ambition. Look for Williams to use the slider wide on the deuce side in the early stages to stretch Osaka and create space for her first strike. If Williams serves 61 percent or better, as she has in four of six matches, she will win.
3. Appetite for The Fight & Movement
Motherhood has not diminished Williams' raw desire. Throughout her career, Williams has creatively found wants to reignite her desire and her game when injury, illness or apathy set her back. This is her second major final after returning from maternity leave and Williams is showing the fire and fight that is unmatched in women's tennis.
As absurd as it sounds, at age 36 Williams is moving better than her 20-year-old opponent. Still grinding through the gears of her game in Miami, Williams was often flat-footed, reactive and plodding then.
Now, she's much faster off the mark, she's striking her running forehand with vigor and showed shrewd forward movement winning 24 of 28 trips to net in her semifinal sweep of Anastasija Sevastova. Williams will want to straddle the baseline, use her short-angled forehand crosscourt, stretch Osaka and test the first-time finalist in running rallies.
In her new ad campaign Williams quotes LL Cool J "don't call it a comeback."
This US Open can be the ultimate comeback story.
At it's core, this final is a love story.
As a child, Osaka's love for Williams inspired her to pick up a racquet.
As a new mom, Williams' love for the game has inspired her competitive rebirth 12 months after giving birth.
An x-factor could be the vocal New York City crowd that has showered the love on Serena and she's responded with her most dynamic tennis of this comeback season.
This is the most overwhelmingly pro-Serena crowd Williams has experienced in her 18 US Open appearances.
The sound of 23,000 loud fans behind a 23-time Grand Slam champion can be rocket fuel for Williams, who is embracing this challenge and typically brings her best on big stages.
Love Stories can touch us and they can teach us and this final may well do both.
The Pick
Serena Williams d. Naomi Osaka in 3 sets.