By Richard Pagliaro | Friday January 13, 2017
Novak Djokovic, who has defeated Andy Murray in the last two Australian Open finals, is playing for a record seventh Melbourne title.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
The Melbourne sign painted behind the baseline of Rod Laver Arena has served as starting blocks for Novak Djokovic and a dead end for Andy Murray in recent years.
Now that the former junior rivals have reversed roles with Murray displacing Djokovic as world No. 1, will they reverse results too?
Australian Open: Breaking Down The Women’s Draw
The Australian Open draw presents the prospect of a third consecutive Djokovic-Murray final—along with several surprises along the way.
Five-time finalist Murray is determined to break through and win his first Australian Open championship.
The second-ranked Djokovic, who defeated Murray to successfully defend his Doha title, is bidding to break the record for most Australian Open titles he shares with Aussie legend Roy Emerson by winning his seventh Melbourne championship. If Djokovic sweeps his third straight Australian Open title— and sixth in the last seven years—he will take sole possession of fourth place on the all-time Grand Slam list behind only Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Pete Sampras by winning his 13th Slam.
The Happy Slam presents a stern start for the second-seeded Serbian, who meets Fernando Verdasco in a severe opening-round test.
Last week, a defiant Djokovic fought off five match points, winning seven of the last eight points in the breaker igniting a pulsating 4-6, 7-6 (7), 6-3 comeback victory over Verdasco to reach the Doha final.
The rematch, which comes a year after Verdasco knocked Rafael Nadal out of Melbourne, should be riveting.
Here’s a quarter-by-quarter analysis of the men's draw.
Top Quarter
It’s a new view from the top for Andy Murray, who celebrates his first Grand Slam as world No. 1 with a satisfying sightline.
The two-time Olympic gold medalist has a pair of powerful Americans in his section, but Murray holds a combined 14-1 record vs. 31st-seeded Sam Querrey and No. 19-seeded John Isner—6-1 vs. Querrey and 8-0 against Isner, whom he beat in the Paris Masters final last fall. The three-time Grand Slam champion owns 16th-seeded Lucas Pouille, his potential fourth-round opponent, too. Murray has permitted just 10 games in their three meetings.
Roger Federer returns for his 18th consecutive Australian Open greeted by a welcoming draw. Seeded an unfamiliar No. 17, the 35-year-old Swiss draws qualifiers in the first two rounds followed by a possible third-round reunion with Tomas Berdych, whom Federer swept in the 2016 Oz Open quarterfinals.
Federer figures to enjoy massive fan support in Melbourne and could go deep, but will likely have to face fifth-seeded Kei Nishikori to do so.
Nishikori’s blurring hand speed, fast feet, strong five-set record and ability to take the ball on the rise make him a threat in this section. Fitness could be a question mark: Nishikori took an injury timeout for treatment of a hip injury during his three-set loss to Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane final.
Federer moved fluidly during Hopman Cup. The Grand Slam king has won four of six meetings with potential fourth-round foe Nishikori, including three of their four hard-court meetings. Still, Nishikori’s two-handed backhand is a dynamic weapon.
Top Quarterfinal Prediction: (1) Andy Murray vs. (5) Kei Nishikori
Intriguing Opener: Nicolas Mahut vs. Ryan Harrison. The French serve-and-volleyer edged the American, 7-6 (2), 7-5, in their lone prior meeting at the 2014 Sydney. The 24-year-old Harrison, who upset sixth-ranked Milos Raonic at the 2016 US Open for his best Grand Slam win, is 10 years younger than the Mahut, who has failed to survive the second round in seven of eight career appearances.
Second Quarter
A potential blockbuster fourth-round showdown between sparring partners Stan Wawrinka and Nick Kyrgios pops off the page in this section. The reigning US Open champion could be tested early: Wawrinka takes on 35th-ranked lefty Martin Klizan in his opener followed by a potential second-rounder with either 33rd-ranked Steve Johnson or 43rd-ranked lefty Federico Delbonis, who surprised Stan in their most recent meeting in Geneva. The 2014 Australian Open champion has won one Slam for three straight years and has made it to at least the Melbourne fourth round four years running.
Clearly, Kyrgios is a risky pick. He’s been nursing a knee injury, conditioning can be a question mark and who knows where his head is at on a day-to-day basis.
The 21-year-old Aussie loves to play the “I don’t like tennis” card perhaps as a device to deflect pressure. And when you have champions ranging from Rod Laver to Rafael Nadal touting you as talented enough to rise to world No. 1 someday pressure of expectation can be stifling. Will we see the cranky Kyrgios, who complained about the music in Oz last year? The controversial Kyrgios, who wore a “F—k Donald Trump” t-shirt to meet with the media in Sydney earlier this week? Or the committed Kyrgios, who contested the 2015 Australian Open quarterfinals? If Kyrgios is tuned into the muse he is an electrifying player who can rock the Melbourne faithful. Then again if he's ornery and oddly detached he’s capable of a Mariah Carey in Times Square train-wreck performance, too.
Former Australian Open finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Auckland finalist Jack Soc and talented 20-year-old Russian baseliner Karen Khachanov are all threats.
Australian No 2. Bernard Tomic typically plays some of his most inspired tennis on home soil. He’s advanced to the fourth round in three of the last five years. Tomic has given 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic problems in the past, including winning their last clash at the Rogers Cup. The seventh-seeded Cilic owns a 24-12 career record in five-setters, including edging Tomic in a five-setter en route to the 2010 Australian Open semifinals. The question is: Can Cilic put the deep disappointment of the Davis Cup final loss behind him and reach the Melbourne second week for the first time in six years?
Second Quarterfinal Prediction: (14) Nick Kyrgios vs. (7) Marin Cilic
Intriguing Opener: (27) Bernard Tomic vs. Thomaz Bellucci. A stylistic clash pits the flat-hitting Tomic, who can crack his two-handed backhand or probe with his one-handed slice backhand, against the left-handed Brazilian’s lively topspin forehand. Bellucci has produced a meager five wins in eight Melbourne appearances, however he handled Tomic routinely, 6-2, 6-2, in the Shenzhen quarterfinals last fall.
Third Quarter
Wimbledon runner-up Milos Raonic is poised to go deep in this section.
The question is: Will Rafael Nadal or Gael Monfils, the man Raonic defeated in the 2016 Melbourne quarterfinals, be waiting for him in the last eight?
Though the ballistic-serving Canadian fell to Grigor Dimitrov and failed to defend his Brisbane title last week, he has played some of his most assertive tennis Down Under. Raonic backed up his 2015 quarterfinal appearance with a trip to the final four last year. He served with authority in the final set of a three-set triumph over Nadal in Brisbane last week and he’s held serve 91 percent of the time in his career—third all-time behind only Ivo Karlovic and John Isner.
In a section that boasts 14-time Grand Slam champion Nadal, who will be pumped for progress after his opening-round exit to compatriot Fernando Verdasco last year, and the acrobatic Monfils, who is fresh off the US Open semifinals, it may sound absurd to pick Alexander Zverev to advance to the last eight given he has yet to win a match in Melbourne.
However, Zverev wisely shut down his 2016 season early to focus on fitness and strength training. That decision should serve him well. Zverev must still improve his match management skills and grow stronger, but he relishes matches against elite players as he showed toppling Federer in Halle last year—and again last week in Hopman Cup—and nearly knocking Nadal out of Indian Wells last March. How will he hold up to the heat and best-of-five set stress test? We'll find out.
Third Quarterfinal Prediction: (3) Milos Raonic vs. (24) Alexander Zverev
Intriguing Opener: (6) Gael Monfils vs. Jiri Vesely. Flash vs. force as the high-flying Monfils meets the lefty power-baseliner for the third time. If this match is anything like their lone Grand Slam encounter, which Vesely won, 7-6 (3), 6-3, 6-7 (1), 6-7 (3), 6-4, at the 2014 Wimbledon, it could be a long and draining test.
Fourth Quarter
Defending champion Novak Djokovic launches his quest for a record seventh Australian Open against 2009 semifinalist Verdasco, who had Djokovic nearly beaten in Doha only to blink on a few of his match points.
The left-hander is a highly dangerous opponent, but must attack his second serve if he's to truly trouble Djokovic, who struggled with the windy and cool conditions in that Doha match, but should be much more comfortable in Melbourne.
No. 8-seeded Dominic Thiem is dangerous on every surface. The 2016 Roland Garros semifinalist has made strides moving closer to the baseline, but still prefers a bit more time to unload his sweeping swings than is afforded in Melbourne.
In what will likely be his Melbourne farewell, three-time Australian Open semifinalist and now Indian Wells Tournament Director Tommy Haas will be a sentimental favorite in this section. The 38-year-old German opens against Benoit Paire in a battle of brilliant backhands. Paire was stunned by 328th-ranked qualifier Noah Rubin in the first round last year, but is fresh off the Chennai semifinals.
Grigor Dimitrov, who beat Raonic and Nishikori in succession to win his first title in two-and-a-half years in Brisbane, is in fine form and can threaten here.
Consider the fact David Goffin has won a total of eight hard-court Grand Slam matches in his career and owns a 4-32 career record vs. Top 10 opponents and picking the slender Belgian to go deep in the draw appears to be a reach. Scratch beneath the statistical surface and Goffin's court craft and ball-striking skills make him a second-week contender.
Fourth Quarterfinal Prediction: (2) Novak Djokovic vs. (11) David Goffin
Intriguing Opener: (28) Feliciano Lopez vs. Fabio Fognini. Grand Slam doubles champions with exquisite feel and fine net skills face off for the third time in a Slam. Fireworks could erupt. Fired-up by cracks coming from Fognini’s coach, Jose Perlas, Lopez roared back from two sets down to defeat Fognini at Wimbledon last summer.
The normally laid-back Lopez ripped Perlas after the match saying: “This never happened to me in 20 years that the coach of my opponent insulted me during the match. Never ever in my life.” Lopez, swept the theatrical Italian at the 2015 US Open, owns one of the smoothest service motions in the sport, while Fognini can be a sniper on return.