By Chris Oddo | Friday August 26, 2016
Serena Williams is gunning for glory in New York once again, but the 22-time major champion is by no means a lock to win the U.S. Open.
Photo Source: AP
22-time major champion Serena Williams will make another run at history over the next two weeks at Flushing Meadows, but she enters this year’s draw with doubts lingering about her health.
More: Tennis Now's Richard Pagliaro Breaks Down the Men's Draw
Upset in the round of 16 at the Rio Olympics, then forced to pull out of the Western and Southern Open with a shoulder injury, it remains to be seen whether Williams is entering this dream at full speed or running on fumes.
But one thing is very certain. ESPN’s Brad Gilbert summed up what that "thing" is quite aptly when he spoke to Tennis Now this morning after the draw was released. "You can never underestimate Serena when she’s in these big tournaments,” he said.
Williams, a six-time U.S. Open champion and the WTA’s No. 1 for the last 184 weeks, will hope to fend of Germany’s Angelique Kerber for the No. 1 ranking in New York (Williams needs to reach at least the semifinals to get it done, and she may need to do more if Kerber plays well). If Williams succeeds she’ll pass Steffi Graf for most weeks at No. 1 consecutively. But Serena would much rather pass Graf in another, less obscure category: Grand Slam titles. The American is bidding for her 23rd major title, which would put her at the top of the Open Era Grand Slam title list and leave her just one shy of Margaret Court’s all-time record of 24 major titles.
What does the draw tell us about Williams shot at history? And how about Kerber’s chances of becoming the 22nd No. 1 in WTA history? Who are the dark horses that could threaten and what are the key week one matchups?
We take a quarter-by-quarter look at the draw to answer some of those questions below:
Serena’s quarter
A rematch of one of the 2014 U.S. Open semifinals will take place in round one of all places, as Serena Williams drew one of the toughest floaters in Ekaterina Makarova as her first round opponent. Williams holds the 4-1 edge over the Russian in their lifetime head-to-head, and the World No. 1 has won the pair’s last three meetings but Makarova did shock Williams out of the 2012 Australian Open. Making things trickier for Williams is the fact that she is dealing with and struggling to rapidly rehab a sore right shoulder. Will she show up in top form ready for the type of challenge that Makarova presents? “Even if she’s 100 percent healthy that’s a tricky first-round draw,” ESPN’s Brad Gilbert told Tennis Now. “I watched her play at the Olympics and the serve didn’t look right.”
If Williams gets past Makarova she could end up sailing a bit. She’s slated to face 29th-seeded Ana Ivanovic in the third round and either 16th-seede Samantha Stosur or 23rd-seeded Daria Kasatkina in the round of 16.
At the other end of this quarter is Romania’s Simona Halep, a player that has shown great form this summer. She won Bucharest and Montreal back-to-back and carried a 13-match winning streak into the Cincinnati semifinals before losing to Angelique Kerber. But Halep has a tricky opening-round match with Belgium’s Kirsten Flipkens, and if she survives, she’ll have to face either Daria Gavrilova or Lucie Safarova in the second round.
Semifinalist: Williams
Radwanska’s Quarter
Agnieszka Radwanska has never really made her mark at the U.S. Open, but one would have to think that that will change someday—the Pole is simply too talented on fast surfaces. Could it be 2016? Radwanska’s draw is a lot friendlier than Serena Williams. She'll open with a yet-to-be-named qualifier, and the most dangerous players keeping her from a first career quarterfinal in New York would be 25th-seeded Caroline Garcia (possible third round opponent) and 15th-seeded Timea Bacsinszky (possible round of 16 opponent). A lot depends on Radwanska’s form. She’s been to the fourth round four times in New York, but has never really put her best foot forward like we’ve seen her do at Wimbledon and Australia. Could this be the year? Or will a Cinderella story emerge? The other half of this quarter could end up with a battle between 10th-seeded Karolina Pliskova and 6th-seeded Venus Williams. Pliskova, who is fresh off her biggest career title at Cincinnati, has never reached the second week at a major. Williams, 36 and a two-time champion, has lost three of four since reaching the Stanford final in late July.
Semifinalist: Pliskova
Muguruza’s Quarter
Monica Puig, Madison Keys, Johanna Konta, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Garbiñe Muguruza will all be gunning for glory in this very stacked section of the draw. Each has been incredible this year, with Kuznetsova returning to the Top 10 for the first time in seven years, Konta becoming the first British woman to reach the semis of a major in over 30 years and Puig becoming the athlete to ever bring a Gold medal home for Puerto Rico. This section could make things complicated for the top two seeds in this quarter. But No. 3-seeded Muguruza and No. 8-seeded Keys have the mindset and the firepower to reach great heights in New York. And how about these matchups for potential third-rounders? Keys-Vandeweghe, Kuznetsova-Strycova, Puig-Muguruza and Bencic-Konta. Whoever makes it out of this quarter might need an an intraveinous drip before playing the semis!
Semifinalist: Muguruza
Kerber’s Quarter
Angelique Kerber is gunning for the No. 1 ranking in New York, and many feel that it is actually a blessing that she did not become No. 1 in Cincinnati, where she fell to Karolina Pliskova in the final. A little less media attention might be good for Kerber, and her draw is certainly manageable until—SMACK—she runs into Petra Kvitova in the round of 16. Kvitova has developed a reputation as a U.S. Open underachiever in year’s past, but the Czech reached her first quarterfinal in New York last year and appears to be rounding into form nicely in New Haven as we speak. It’s not a guarantee that Kerber and Kvitova meet, but if they do this will surely be one of the marquee matchups of the round of 16. Kerber will open with Polona Hercog of Slovenia while Kvitova will face the erratic yet dangerous youngster, Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia. In the top half of this quarter, 7th-seeded Roberta Vinci and 12th-seeded Dominika Cibulkova are the projected quarterfinalists.
Semifinalist: Kerber
Semifinal 1: Williams d. Pliskova
Semifinal 2: Kerber d. Muguruza
Final: Williams d. Kerber