A big drop in the ATP’s rankings for Rafael Nadal could add a sizable element of chaos into next month’s French Open draw.

Also See: A Nadal-Djokovic Semifinal? How Very French

Nadal, who was leapfrogged by Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori in this week’s ATP rankings, might have some difficulty climbing back into the Top 4 before Roland Garros rolls around. It’s important because if Roland Garros seedings are determined by rankings, and if Nadal ends up seeded fifth, he could face any of the top four seeds in the quarterfinals.

A similar yet different scenario played out in 2013, where Nadal was ranked 5th during April but managed to climb to No. 4 by Roland Garros. Andy Murray’s withdrawal from the French Open that year meant that the Spaniard was seeded third. He would eventually be drawn into Novak Djokovic’s half of the draw and defeat the Serb in an epic five-set battle that was labelled by John McEnroe as the best clay-court match he had ever seen.

Tennis fans were blessed, but many were left wondering: wouldn’t that have been better if it were a final?

This year, the stakes could be even higher. For Djokovic to meet Nadal in the semifinals of Roland Garros was one thing, but for the two best clay-courters in tennis to meet in a quarterfinal, well it’s entirely another.

Last time Roland Garros’s organizers stuck to their guns and seeded according to precedent. With more pressure this season will they do the same?

Likely, they will have the choice to make, because in spite of Nadal’s prowess on clay, he’ll have to make up quite a bit of ground on Kei Nishikori to climb to No. 4.

Nadal is currently only 25 points behind Nishikori, but he’s protecting 1870 points from Barcelona, Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome. Nishikori, a vastly improved clay-court player, is only protecting 1100 points. It’s certainly doable for Nadal, especially if he can bag a few titles. Basically, with 3,500 points on offer before Roland Garros, Nishikori will be starting with an 795-point edge. (Note: Nishikori and Murray are not entered at Monte-Carlo)



We’ll likely be revisiting this debate as the clay season progresses. There are many who believe a nine-time champion should automatically grab the first seed. But some believe that the tournament should stick with its rankings-based system, which rewards those players who have been grinding on tour over the last 52-weeks to secure their ranking.

Let’s not forget that moving Nadal up pushes either Nishikori or Murray down to fifth seed. They could look as that as unfair because by gaining a Top 4 ranking, they’ve put themselves in a position to get a seed that would enable them to avoid any Top-4 rankers until the semis.

Note: We did not mention current No. 3, Andy Murray as a potential target for Nadal to catch because he is 805 points ahead of Nadal with only 270 points to make up before Roland Garros. Unless Murray tanks or gets injured, he should easily be able to stay ahead of Nadal. Basically, Murray is starting the road to Roland Garros with a 2,445-point lead over Nadal, with only 3,500 points on offer.