By Richard Pagliaro | Saturday, September 12, 2026
Photo credit: Jon Buckle/ROLEX
NEW YORK—Mastering miniscule margins will be a major factor in tomorrow’s U.S. Open final.
The USTA is refurbishing Arthur Ashe Stadium and will receive remodeling help when top-seeded Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton square off in the final.
Two of the most devastating servers in the sport will batter the back wall with their wrecking ball first serves in a match of power players who can both exterminate points with one swing—and extend exchanges with athletic agility.
That means tiebreakers may well come into play.
Four of the 11 sets these two have played were decided in tiebreakers with former Olympic gold-medal champion Zverev winning all four of those breakers and posting a perfect 5-0 record versus Shelton.
This Flushing Meadows final features the top two tiebreak titans in the game this season. Zverev owns a 30-14 tiebreaker record (5-2 at US Open) and Shelton is 26-14 in 2026 tiebreakers, including 4-0 at this event.
A first-time US Open men’s champion will be crowned Sunday night in New York.
Here’s our US Open men’s final preview.
[1] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs [8] Ben Shelton (USA)
Head-to-head: Zverev Leads 5-0
2026 Records: Zverev 52-13, Shelton 39-13
2026 Hard-Court Records: Zverev 23-7, Shelton 25-6
Career US Open Records: Zverev 34-10, Shelton 15-4
2026 Tiebreaker Records: Zverev 30-14, Shelton 26-14
Career 5-Set Records: Zverev 26-15 (6-3 at US Open), Shelton 9-4 (1-2 at US Open)
Alexander Zverev on Ben Shelton: “Ben is just a big, powerful guy. Massive serve, massive groundstrokes. Everything he does is just big.”
Ben Shelton on Alexander Zverev: “I’m playing against the No. 1 seed, Grand Slam final, playing against a Grand Slam champion trying to get my first. It’s a lot of reasons that this is an enjoyable moment for me and knowing that I can leave it all out there on the court and push myself to the absolute limit in every way and see what I can do is an exciting, exciting thought.”
Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton Match-By-Match
2024 ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati (U.S.A.)Hard QF Alexander Zverev 3-6 7-6(3) 7-5
2025 Munich (Germany) Clay F Alexander Zverev 6-2 6-4
2025 Stuttgart (Germany) Grass SF Alexander Zverev 7-6(8) 7-6(1)
2025 ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati (U.S.A.)Hard QF Alexander Zverev 6-2 6-2
2025 Nitto ATP Finals (Italy) Hard RR Alexander Zverev 6-3 7-6(6)
Where to Watch: US Open men’s final starts at 2 p.m. and will be televised nationally on ABC and ESPN Deportes with a replay aired 9 p.m. to midngit on ESPN2.
What’s At Stake: US Open champion earns 2,000 ranking points and a $5.5 Million champion’s check. The US Open runner-up receives 1,300 ranking points and a finalist check of $2.8 Million.
Alexander Zverev, the first German man to reach multiple US Open finals, is playing for his second career Grand Slam crown—and to eradicate the ghosts of his gut-wrenching 2020 US Open final collapse when he was two points from the title only to shrink and bow to Dominic Thiem, who joined Pancho Gonzalez as just the second man in history to rally from two sets down and win a US Open final.
Ben Shelton, the youngest American man to reach the US Open final since Andy Roddick in 2003, is bidding to snap a 23-year U.S. men’s major title drought and become the first American man since Roddick to capture Grand Slam silverware.
Common Connection
Finalists are fiercely protective of their serves.
The left-handed Shelton is second on the ATP Tour in service games held (91%) trailing only No. 1 Jannik Sinner (93%), while Zverev is fifth on Tour in service games held at 89%.
Both men are exceptionally agile athletes, who can be dangerous on the run ripping out of the corners. Zverev is a very good basketball player, while Shelton throws a football better than Tim Tebow. And that’s no knock on the Heisman winner, at the Miami Open one year I saw Shelton playing catch with Coco Gauff’s younger brother and he easily tossed a football 50 yards, perfect spiral, without exuding even much effort. Zverev is a superior lateral mover, Shelton is more self-assured moving forward to finish at net, though the German was an excellent 21 of 26 at net in his straight-sets semifinal win over Karen Khachanov.
Tiebreaker prowess under Grand Slam final stress could be put to to the test in Sunday’s final. The Flushing Meadows forecast calls for heavy rain Sunday morning with clearing by early afternoon—almost like two different days wrapped in one—so it will be interesting to see if the 2 p.m. final, which airs on ABC Television, will start with the Arthur Ashe Stadium retractable roof closed.
Why Alexander Zverev Will Win
Total Terminator
There are damaging servers and then there is Zverev, who is a disarming server. When Zverev is hitting his spots on first serve, opponents do a whole lot of waving and walking to the other side. Zverev, second to Taylor Fritz in the ATP ace race, leads this US Open with 87 aces—16 more than Shelton. Maiden major finalist Shelton will want to extend points on the German’s serve, make him work and engage fans to get loud to ratchet up the pressure. Zverev is capable of stifling Shelton’s return game and silencing fans if he continues serving with command. Zverev bombed 15 aces against 1 double fault conquering two-time semifinalist Karen Khachanov 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6) in the semifinals. Zverev, who has masterfully mixed the devious slice serve wide with the flat bomb down the T on the deuce side, did not drop serve in his fourth-round win over Luciano Darderi or his quarterfinal sweep of Botic van de Zandschulp. Zverev is serving 67 percent in the tournament denying opponents second-serve opportunities. When he has to hit second serves, Zverev has been bringing the heat as well.
Lateral Likes & Laser Strikes
Roaming well behind the baseline, the rangy 6’6” German plays with the wide wing span and counter-strike skill of a jet fighter. An excellent lateral mover, Zverev can laser backhand blasts done the line—look for the 2020 finalist to do damage with that play when he opens the court off the backhand cross. Zverev’s skill striking from behind the baseline enables him to absorb pace and allows time for him to pick his target on the pass. When Shelton serve-and-volleys or attacks, Zverev will have the time and space to blast the pass. For those reasons, look for Shelton to try to carve out some drop volleys and play shorter angles to exploit Zverev’s fondness for hanging out well behind the baseline. The challenge for Shelton will be trying to deaden drop volleys off vicious passing shots is not an easy task. Look for Zverev to attack Shelton’s weaker backhand wing, which is much improved but not as explosive as his lefty forehand.
Front & Center
When Zverev is commanding the center of the court drilling deep drives that knock opponents off the baseline like a barrage of bowling balls into the body, it’s difficult to turn defense into offense. There are very good reasons why Zverev leads the ATP in wins this season (52-14) and leads the Tour in Grand Slam wins (24-2): The German holds serve with authority, puts plenty of returns in play and punishes opponents with pulverizing passion in baseline exchanges. Zverev will win because he’s been the best player this Slam season, he’s faced adverse crowds in Grand Slams before, and he has the confidence that comes from imposing winner patterns of play on Shelton and winning every match they’ve played.
Why Ben Shelton Will Win
Highs & Lows
Though he’s often typecast as a pure power player, the truth is Shelton typically plays with more variety than Zverev. Shelton must use it all and vary his spins, speeds and, importantly, the heights of his shots to deny the Roland Garros champion the rhythm he craves. Shelton should try to play his chip backhand low and short to Zverev’s forehand to drag him forward at times and play some high heavy topspin forehand strikes to challenge the German above his shoulders. When Zverev is confronted with high topspin or sometimes even deep down the middle to his forehand wing, he tends to counter predictably down the middle. Shelton must recognize that and rip forehands when he can.
Bold & Brave
Big Ben must come out booming to set the tone. The 23-year-old Shelton will try to assert his aggression, apply his net skills and thrown down some quick holds to show the top seed he’s in for a long battle. In a Grand Slam final, you’re competing on multiple levels, including the downtime between points. If you saw Shelton’s 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 victory over buddy Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals then you saw the left-hander inform chair umpire Aurélie Tourte to watch the serve clock because Big Foe was exceeding it. Shelton must lodge the same complaint when the methodical Zverev—who routinely ball bounces 15 times or more after his ritualistic shirt tugging and service box gazing—flirts and eventually exceeds the serve clock. When Zverev snapped a shoelace against Quentin Halys in round two as the Frenchman served down double break point, the German was so slow in changing shoes—giving his opponent plenty of time to ponder his predicament—he actually paused to talk to his dad and his brother. If you’re Shelton you must challenge Zverev on every level, make him uncomfortable, let him know nothing will come easily and call him out on the stall card when he plays it. Zverev can get tight as he did against Thiem in the 2020 US Open and final and as he did, at times, in his five-set French Open final win over Flavio Cobolli. If you’re Shelton, you must impose your game because if you play his game you’ve lost every single time and will lose again.
Showtime Shelton
Competing for a US Open championship on the biggest Grand Slam stage in the world is about much more than forehands and backhands and serving and returning. It’s about managing the pressure-cooker stress, adrenaline rush, rowdy crowds and sometimes chaotic conditions that can confront you. Playing in just his fifth US Open, Shelton not only has a flair for the bright lights and big stage—he’s fueled by it. Shelton can play the sport like an action hero—see his electrifying exchanges with 2025 champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals—and will be sky high with overwhelming support from fans hungering for the first American men’s Grand Slam champion since Andy Roddick defeated David Nalbandian and Juan Carlos Ferrero back-to-back to take win the 2003 US Open. Shelton has the big game, the big personality and the competitive character to manage the chaos and a dangerous opponent. If I’m Shelton, I’m trying to ride that emotional wave from the walk-out, which means I’d dump the ever-present headphones and have my eyes and ears wide open walking on to that resounding roar on Ashe, which sounds like no other tennis stadium in the world.
Prediction
Applying virtually any major metric, Alexander Zverev is the clear pick here.
Contesting his sixth major final, Zverev owns Shelton in their head-to-head, he’s the far more experienced big-match player, he’s been the best player in Slams this season, he’s imposed fail-safe patterns Shelton has yet to solve in their past meetings and even when he’s been challenged in late-night New York tests, he’s answered physically and definitely sometimes launching 140 mph rockets to light up the lines. Zverev has played more major finals (six) than Shelton’s total US Open appearances (five) that matters big time when turbulent tests arrive.
Because he’s so rangy and soaks up pace so effectively, it’s hard to attack Zverev and based on their past meetings you have to expect extended exchanges favor the German, who generally exhibits higher shot-tolerance than Shelton.
You’d have to be borderline crazy, a desperate dreamer, still intoxicated from the New York Knicks inspired run to their first NBA title in 53 years or high on Honey Deuces to pick Shelton, in his first Grand Slam final, to snap the United States’ 23-year men’s major title drought, right?
Full confession: while guilty of some of the aforementioned offenses, I’m also incredibly impressed by the poise, power and passion Shelton is bringing each match.
Plugging into the electric energy of the New York faithful, Shelton is playing the most dynamic tennis of his life, and importantly, looks like he’s having a blast doing it.
Sure, it’s a risk, but if you’re going to take a risk you may as well ride with a thrill seeker who owns the weapons to blow up the predictable plotlines. Shelton will surely be feeling the spiking nerves as he steps onto Ashe, that’s natural and normal, the question is can he channel that adrenaline rush into proactive play as he did dethroning defending champion Alcaraz at 3:33 a.m. with an exclamation-point ending ace?
I was very fortunate to be there and see the young Marat Safin shock Pete Sampras in the 2000 final, I watched the young Juan Martin del Potro make history defeating Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer in succession—snapping the Swiss Maestro’s five-year US Open reign in 2009—and saw both Stan Wawrinka and Daniil Medvedev deny heavily-favored Novak Djokovic with both men enjoying strong crowd support that energized them.
Wimbledon finalist Zverev is the best player this Slam season, but two-time Canadian Open champion Shelton is the best player right now, winning 12 of his last 13 matches on North American hard courts.
As another noted New York lefty closer and devoted tennis fan, the late, great Tug McGraw, famously proclaimed: “Ya Gotta Believe!”
Shelton is competing with the conviction of one who truly believes this is his major moment.
I see him rising up and seizing it.
The Pick
Ben Shelton defeats Alexander Zverev in 5 sets
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