The quarterfinals are set for Thursday at the Cincinnati Open, and we’ve had four rounds of action to pick through as we search for emerging trends ahead of the US Open, which begins on August 30 (qualifying starts Monday, August 24).
First observation: things are a lot clearer on the women’s side. Yes, there is a tone of upheaval there, with Aryna Sabalenka still searching for her first major of 2026 and suffering a shocking loss to Sara Bejlek of Czechia tonight in Cincinnati, but if we look at the draw, we find that six of the eight quarterfinalists are Top 10 players.
They’ll all be eagerly hunting the title this weekend and looking to close in on the space that Sabalenka is giving back as she struggles. For Sabalenka, it must feel like the world is falling apart. How will she regain the confidence she will need to defend her title in Flushing Meadows?
Elena Rybakina, a suddenly surging (about time) Iga Swiatek, 2026 phenom Marta Kostyuk, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula are all there. Throw in Amanda Anisimova, who is rounding into form as well, and it looks like the usual suspects are set up to do damage this weekend in Cincinnati and at the US Open.
If there is any player who has been left out of the party, it is Mirra Andreeva.
The 2026 Roland Garros champion has won just four matches since Wimbledon. But at least she won two in a row in Cincinnati – a sign, perhaps, that she is waking up from her slumber.
A US Open without Sincaraz???
On the men’s side, we’ve had a summer of disarray. News of Jannik Sinner’s knee injury, coupled with the snail’s pace of Carlos Alcaraz’s recovery, has left us without the glory of Sincaraz for far too long. We still don’t know if they’ll make it to the Open, and if they do, what type of tennis they can produce.
Then there’s Alexander Zverev, who will enter the US Open as the favorite if Alcaraz and Sinner don’t show. The German has slipped a bit this summer after winning his first major in Paris, then reaching the Wimbledon final. Perhaps he’s emptied the tank? He squandered a match point against Tommy Paul in the round of 16 on Wednesday and finished the two Masters events in Canada and Cincy with a 2-2 record.
Novak Djokovic, another player who stands to benefit from Sincaraz’s absence, wilted in the heat in Cincinnati against Thiago Augustin Tirante and lost in three sets. Afterwards, Djokovic talked openly about his issues with the heat at his age – 39! Maybe Nole got the experience and reps he needed in Cincinnati and can now spend the next week ramping up his physicality and getting ready for best-of-five set tennis in New York heat and humidity. You can bet he’ll be asking for night sessions. One has to think that this will be Djokovic’s last chance to actually make a run at his 25th major. Count him out at your own peril.
All talk about Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev and Djokovic is prelude to the real story, which is that the 2026 men’s singles tournament at the US Open could be even more open than Roland Garros, which was the first Grand Slam in the Open Era that did not feature a former Grand Slam champion in the round of 16.
That means the door is wide open for a special someone on the rise to crystallize his game and capitalize on the opportunity.
Several names come to mind.
There’s Rafael Jodar, who has continued to rise this summer, reaching the final in DC and the semifinals in Montreal. His stay was cut short in Cincinnati by Flavio Cobolli in the round of 16, but the bright side is that the wildly talented – and focused – 19-year-old will get a bit of rest ahead of his US Open.
Arthur Fils is another name that comes to mind. Jodar is the only player who has stopped the 22-year-old French phenom this summer, upsetting him in the first round in DC and then in the quarterfinals in Montreal.
Fils has steadily progressed this summer and that’s good news. He has looked fit (remember he had to miss Roland Garros with a hip injury), and he’s heading into the quarterfinals after an impressive win over Alex de Minaur in Cincinnati on Wednesday. Along with Jodar, Fils tracks as a future Top 5 player. In a wide-open field in New York, it could be his time to make a statement.
Then there are the Americans, with Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton leading the way. Shelton took a hard loss in Cincinnati against Jaime Faria, but his title defense in Montreal is what will stick in his mind when the Open commences. Fritz has been his usual self on the hard courts, winning DC and now pushing for another run in Cincy. He’ll next face surprising upstart Brandon Nakashima, who has been the most pleasant surprise among the American men this summer, reaching his first Masters final in Montreal and now another quarterfinal in Cincy.
It’s generally a good time of year for American men, as Tommy Paul, who just upset Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati, can attest. So can Frances Tiafoe, who recorded his fourth consecutive Top 10 win by defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime in the round of 16 in Cincinnati.
There are just four days of Masters 1000 tennis left before the US Open. No matter what happens we already know that this year there will be a different feel in New York. It’s always crazy in Gotham but 2026 could be off-the-charts weird.
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