First-Strike Tennis: Djokovic’s Path to Wimbledon Final Requires Perfection

Novak Djokovic has put a bow on his rivalries with the Big 3—as Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are now long retired. These days, it’s about taking on the “New 2.”

On Friday at Wimbledon, Djokovic will take on Jannik Sinner in the semifinals as he bids to become the oldest men’s singles finalist at the All England Club since Ken Rosewall in 1974.

Djokovic snapped a five-match losing streak against Sinner (a stretch that included a lopsided loss in last year’s Wimbledon semifinals) at this year’s Australian Open. It was a shot across the bow of the younger generation, one that reminded everyone that even at 38 (then) or 39 (now), Djokovic remains capable of winning a major if the opportunity presents itself.

He has that opportunity again at Wimbledon, but the circumstances are different. Djokovic is coming off a five-hour, 15-minute epic against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, whereas in Australia he benefited from a walkover (Mensik) and a retirement (Musetti, in the third set) in the two previous rounds before facing Sinner.

“I still try to prove to myself and others that I’m able to compete with the best players in the world and beat them on the biggest stage,” Djokovic said on Tuesday after his victory over Auger-Aliassime sent him into a record eighth consecutive Wimbledon semifinal.

“That’s what I’ve done in Australia. It’s what I’ve done here—hopefully I can do it for a few more matches here in London.”

Sinner knows his biggest challenge of the fortnight now awaits.

“Even when I had this small streak with him, I felt like every match really has its own story,” he said of his 12th career meeting with the seven-time Wimbledon champion. “Especially when you play on a surface like this, if you have a bad serving day or you’re not feeling the ball very well, it’s going to be very, very tough.

“He has won this tournament so many times and he knows exactly how to approach it.”

How will Djokovic rebound from his marathon with Auger-Aliassime? Will two days of rest be exactly what he needs?

Chris Eubanks, previewing the semifinal for ESPN, believes Djokovic will be fresh.

“I don’t think it’s going to matter that much personally,” he said of Djokovic’s epic win on Tuesday evening.

The reason? Djokovic isn’t going to try to grind with Sinner from the baseline. He’s going to play first-strike tennis, relying on efficiency, aggression and the element of surprise.

“I think Novak’s going to come out here with a clear game plan, similar to what he did in Australia against Jannik, and what he did to Carlos last year in Australia, where he played so much aggressive tennis,” Eubanks said.

“He didn’t allow himself to get into these long baseline-to-baseline exchanges. He’s gonna jump on any short ball, get inside the court and take risks, because the only way he’s gonna beat Jannik is by taking risks.”

Eubanks has also paid close attention to Sinner’s forehand through his first five matches. The Italian has leaked more errors than usual off that wing, which could present Djokovic with an opportunity.

“It’s gonna be interesting to see if Novak wants to try to target Sinner’s forehand early on,” he said. “We know that Novak is one of the first players to really delve into analytics—he’s going to know that Jannik’s forehand has been a bit more erratic.”

Andy Roddick believes Djokovic may actually benefit from knowing there’s only one path to victory: playing on the front foot.

“What I do know is that there was an out when he was playing Felix, right?” he said. “He could kind of get some stress relief and breathe in rallies if he found the backhand side. There’s no relief against Sinner. Sometimes, when there’s only one way that you can win a match, it almost provides clarity, focus and a little bit of freedom.”

Roddick believes Djokovic will have to hit closer to the lines and keep Sinner moving.

“Novak is so good at being able to play through the middle of the court,” he said. “He can do that against most people. Against Sinner, I actually think he needs to attack the sidelines. Sinner is one of the few players who can stand in there through the middle and go toe-to-toe with Novak.”

As for the forehand-to-forehand exchanges, Roddick believes Djokovic could prove vulnerable if Sinner finds his range crosscourt.

“I’m curious about Sinner going after Novak’s forehand,” he said. “This is not a criticism—we judge Novak against his own shadow. Going to the right, to the forehand, in some of these little mental lulls, guys have been able to get there and force errors. Safiullin was able to do it. Felix did it as well. Playing defense on the backhand side is definitely the better place for Novak to defend right now, so I think they’re both going to send some traffic to the forehand and we’ll see who comes out on top.”