By Franklin L. Johnson
© Tony Chang/Chang Photography; James White
(October 14, 2010) A little more than six years ago, the WTA Tour top 10 rankings resembled a Russian Fed Cup roster as Russian women were busy reducing the rest of the world's players to spectator status. Two days after 19-year-old Svetlana Kuznetsova beat Elena Dementieva to win the 2004 US Open title no less than five Russian women — Dementieva, Kuznetsova, Anastasia Myskina, Maria Sharapova and Vera Zvonareva — resided in the WTA Tour Top 10.
As recently as two years ago half of the WTA Tour's 2008 season-ending top 10 — No. 3 Dinara Safina, No. 4 Dementieva, No. 7 Zvonareva, No. 8 Kuznetsova and No. 9 Sharapova — represented the Russian flag.
We're witnessing a new world order unfold before our eyes as Caroline Wozniacki dethroned Serena Williams as the new World No. 1 on Monday to become the first Danish player in history to secure the top spot.
If you reflect back on the Russian rise of six years ago in which Russian women captured three consecutive major crowns — Myskina defeated Dementieva, who committed 10 double faults, 6-1, 6-2, to become the first Russian woman to win a major singles championship at the French Open; Sharapova shoved Serena Williams aside at Wimbledon in dethroning the defending champion, 6-1, 6-4, to capture the 2004 Wimbledon Rosewater Dish and Kuznetsova claimed the US Open — it may seem like a long time ago when Russia ruled the tennis world.
Given the injuries to Serena Williams and Justine Henin, the advancing age of Venus Williams, Kim Clijsters' stated desire to have more children in the coming years and the fact I am not sold on Caroline Wozniacki as a major champion unless she can add some aggression to her game, I believe we are on the brink of another Russian resurgence.
Here's my view of how the top Russian women will fare in 2011.
No. 3 Vera Zvonareva — Say what you want about her emotional breakdown and tearful tantrums on court but if you watched her compete for any length of time this year then you know Vera comes to play. She has found a way to re-dedicate herself to her career and her results speak for themselves. In reaching successive Grand Slam tournament finals at Wimbledon and the US Open, Vera has quietly delivered her best year and it could serve as a solid platform for a serious assault on the majors. She'll need a little help to make up for her lack of size and strength because against the bigger hitters she will always face a power disparity. Next season may be her best and last chance at claiming a Grand Slam tournament title. If she doesn't succeed, it won't be from a lack of trying. The bigger babes are simply crowding her out and overpowering her, but if Vera did not have to face Serena, Venus or Kim to win a major final she'd have a shot against just about anyone else.
No. 9 Elena Dementieva — Can a player's personality influence her results? Absolutely and I believe one reason Elena has not yet won a major is because in addition to her suspect serve, she is simply too nice. Dementieva is a sweet person and lacks the killer instinct and that may be the reason why she hasn't hauled off the heavy hardware...YET. Remember, the Roland Garros title was there for the taking when Dementieva faced off against Francesca Schiavone in the French Open semifinals in June and the magnitude of the moment got the best of Elena as she retired with an apparent calf injury. If Elena is going to break through and master a major, I think she needs to get mean and move her mother and coach, Vera, away from courtside in order to reach her full potential. Dementieva celebrates her 29th birthday tomorrow yet spends entirely too much time and energy trying to please her mother by attempting to be perfect. This is a losing battle because no one can play a perfect match, no matter how much you may want to please a doting parent. I'm sure her mother is a wonderful person. But she doesn't do her daughter any good by suffering on the sideline with every shot. Despite this situation, Elena can still win a major if she gets a little help from the draw, gets mentally tougher and she serves her best when it counts.
No. 17 Nadia Petrova — Mental fragility has been the ghost haunting Petrova's game for years. Nadia has had a fine career, reaching the US Open doubles final with Liezel Huber last month, but truth be told she has never lived up to her potential. Her nerves always get the best of her in important matches. At 28, Petrova has been around too long for serious consideration to win her first singles major though she is a threat in doubles. She's been playing a little bit better of late, but she's not consistent enough to win seven matches in two weeks. Her body never seems to hold up, but I think it's more mental and emotional than physical with her.
No. 19 Maria Sharapova — Skeptics are quick to write Shazza off, but don't believe the early obituaries: Masha still has the magic. She's returned to the Tour after her shoulder surgery and that type of injury can take significant time to fully recover from. We all know Maria is a workhorse and a fighter and I expect her to come back with a vengeance next year, particularly in Melbourne where she had reached the final four for four straight appearances until her upset loss to former doubles partner Maria Kirilenko last January. That loss will motivate Sharapova, who can only gain ranking points with a good run Down Under and if she's healthy I look for the 2008 Oz Open champ to do some significant damage Down Under in 2011. Sharapova's future as a major champion depends a lot on whether her shoulder can withstand a full season of play. She cannot afford the repeated stops and starts because the injury-induced interruptions means she has to face top players like Serena, who beat her at Wimbledon, and Caroline Wozniacki, who swept her in New York, before the quarters and semis. Sadly, I fear some physical damage to her shoulder has already been done by her father who encouraged her to play too much too early, unlike Richard Williams who saw the problem with this approach and limited his girls' tournament schedules. Maria has also adopted a modified schedule in recent years but is it too late? I believe if she is healthy she can win another major.
No. 20 Svetlana Kuznetsova— Sveta has collected two career majors, second only to Maria Sharapova among Russian women, and has contested quarterfinals or better in all four Grand Slam tournaments. Kuznetsova has arguably the most complete game of any Russian woman, she's only 25 years old and theoretically should be entering her prime time and she snapped a two-year title drought in defeating Agnieszka Radwanska to win San Diego in August.
Kuznetsova has been around a long time and is certainly capable of winning more majors, but I think her best days are behind her. She has enough game to win a major, but she's lost what little consistency and self belief she had. Sveta no longer fights like she used to nor does she play with the fire of a woman who is committed to her cause. When she played doubles with Martina Navratilova, Kuznetsova was at her best mentally because Martina always got into her face when she played sloppily and supporter her when she played well. Now, she doesn't seem to have that person behind her to boost and maintain her motivation. Look at her performance in Grand Slam tournaments this year: Kuznetsova lost in the fourth round of the Australian Open, the third round of Roland Garros, the second round of Wimbledon and the fourth round of the US Open. She looks so lost at sea on the court these days that she pulled the plug on her season last week. Maybe a long vacation could help re-animate her, but she's so deep into her career a long layoff could bring the end faster. I say if she hired Navratilova as a coach, even as a part-time coach, she could win another major. Because Martina knows how to compel Kuznetsova to play attacking tennis and because Kuznetsova needs a kick in the rear at times to snap out her doldrums. It's the lack of motivation which is doing her in presently.
No. 21 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova — If you haven't seen her play often, let me tell you: Anastasia is the real deal. She won three of the four junior major championships and arguably has the highest upside of any young Russian player. At age 19 she is the youngest woman ranked inside the top 25. The big-hitting baseliner broke through to win her first two Tour-level titles this season at Istanbul and Monterrey. She has beaten several name players including Elena Dementieva, Alisa Kleybanova, Daniela Hantuchova and French Open champion Francesca Schiavone. She took a set off Serena at the French Open. American fans got a glimpse of the teenager's fearless play as she followed her title run in Istanbul beating Hantuchova, Dementieva, Shahar Peer and Yanina Wickmayer before bowing to Maria Sharapova in three sets in the Cincinnati semifinals. Don't be surprised to see Pavlyuchenkova quietly sneak up on the field at one of the majors and perhaps reached a major semifinal next year. Her results are getting better. She could be a serious factor next year.
No. 26 Alisa Kleybanova— She is perhaps the least publicized top-30 ranked Russian woman, but I'm here to say Kleybanova could win a major in the next few years. She has a big enough game, she competes on every surface and unlike many of her compatriots she actually enjoys facing the best players. The 21-year-old from Moscow has beaten four former World No. 1 players — Kim Clijsters, Venus Williams, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic — and won two $220,00 titles this year in Kuala Lumpur (beating Dementieva in the final) and Seoul. Fitness is a major issue with Kleybanova. She needs to lose 15 pounds to give it her best shot and if you think I'm being harsh look at the fact she is 7-8 in three-set matches this season as a sign she wears down because she's carrying too much weight. I'm not sure why she hasn't lost more weight as she matured physically. She did not surpass the third round at any of the four majors, but AK is still very young, she has a solid serve and a stinging two-handed backhand and could improve all aspects of her game. If she does all of the above, look for her to get into a final at one of the majors in about two years.
No. 60 Dinara Safina — While she's going through a rough patch right now, I think Dinara will be back. Safina is very much like Petrova — her backhand is better than her forehand, her serve can be a weapon or a liability and most of her problems are mental and emotional, not physical despite the back issues. Unlike her older brother, Marat, Dinara doesn't quite seem to be able to cope with the pressure of celebrity and winning at all costs. She's very Russian and probably will be happiest just to settle down and have a family at some point. Safina is too good not to bounce back and if she can overcome her inner demons, she has enough game to win a major.
Tennis Now contributing writer Franklin L. Johnson is a writer, poet and avid tennis player based in New York. He has covered professional tennis for three decades. His recent columns include Serena's Charade; Can Defense Carry Caroline Wozniacki To The Top? Elena Dementieva Will Master A Major; The Revival Of Maria Sharapova; Why Roger Federer Fell To Novak Djokovic; Open Observations: Only The Strong Survive; Champs Can Sow Seeds of American Tennis Growth; The GOAT Game Changer; What Do Roger Federer and Andy Murray's Coaching Changes Mean?; American Anthem Needs New Tune; Tomas Berdych Played Tame Final and A Case For Vera.