By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Thursday July 8, 2021

On paper it has always seemed obvious that Karolina Pliskova and Ashleigh Barty would be successful at Wimbledon. Both excel on grass and both possess the type of game that, theoretically, should thrive at Wimbledon. Yet, as main draw play began in 2021, the pair had a combined 16-12 record with a grand total of zero trips beyond the round of 16 at SW19.

Whatever the reasons, it’s not important anymore—both Barty and Pliskova have finally realized their potential at Wimbledon to take their places in the Ladies’ Singles final.

Ashleigh Barty v Karolina Pliskova
Head to Head: Barty leads 4-2
Head to Head on Grass: Pliskova leads, 1-0
Career Titles: Barty, 11 | Pliskova 16
Grand Slam Titles: Barty 1 | Pliskova 0

Different Methods, Routes to the Final

Barty, who is 5’6”, and Pliskova, 6’1”, approach the sport from different altitudes. The Aussie is a conductor from the backcourt, who likes to string out her opponents with variety, shaping rallies with nuance, intelligence and courtcraft, so that she may get an opportunity to step up and hammer her forehand, which is one of the most underrated—and disruptive shots in the women’s game.

Pliskova, meanwhile, uses her menacing serve and groundstrokes to play cool-headed first-strike tennis. She’s a woman that likes to get to the point. Today against Aryna Sabalenka she averaged 2.71 strokes per rally, and seemed to thrive in those conditions. But she’s not a one-trick pony by any means. Pliskova moves and anticipates exceptionally well, and has managed to win 55 percent of her baseline points in six matches this year at Wimbledon. That’s better than Barty, who comes in at 51 percent.

Barty's Path to the Final:

R1 d. Suarez Navarro, 6-1, 6-7(1), 6-1
R2 d. Blinkova 6-4, 6-3
R3 d. Siniakova 6-3, 7-5
Round of 16: d. Krejcikova 7-5, 6-3
QF: d. Tomljanovic 6-1, 6-3
SF: d. Kerber 6-3, 7-6(3)

Pliskova's Path to the Final:

R1: d. Zidansek 7-5, 6-4
R2: d. Vekic 6-2, 6-2
R3: d. Martincova 6-3, 6-3
Round of 16: d. Samsonova 6-2, 6-3
QF: d. Golubic 6-2, 6-2
SF: d. Sabalenka 5-7, 6-4, 6-4


The serve: Barty and Pliskova's Glue, and a Common Bond

Saturday’s final will be a matchup of the tournament’s two most effective servers. Pliskova, the tournament’s ace leader with 54, has dropped serve just four times in six matches, and her slice serve out wide to the ad-side has been absolutely devastating. If there was a liability coming into Thursday’s semifinal with Aryna Sabalenka, it seems to have been remedied: Pliskova was winning only 47 percent of her second-serve points through five rounds, but against the Belarusian she was strong, winning 69 percent.

She will need to continue that trend, and keep her first-serve percentage up around 65 percent to maintain her serving dominance against Barty.

The same goes for Barty. The Aussie is not getting many free points off her second serve, and she has won just 46 percent of second serve points through six matches, while maintaining a lower first-serve percentage of 58 percent.

Barty, who has won 83 percent of her service games (53 of 64) has excelled as a spot server, and in the clutch. She'll look to keep Pliskova off balance by hitting her spots and mixing in different looks.

The weapons

The mystery of Saturday’s matchup will be how Pliskova handles Barty’s backhand slice. There really isn’t another one on tour with the versatility and bite of Barty’s slice. The Aussie will likely lean on it more against Pliskova than she did against Kerber in the semifinals, who is more adept at handling low-lying balls from the baseline.

Expect her to develop a game plan around the shot and look for her to mix in drop shots to keep Pliskova guessing.

The Czech was able to dominate Aryna Sabalenka from the baseline in Thursday’s semifinal but she’ll have to face a completely different reality against Barty, who will not feed her pace and will seek to exploit her advantage on the movement side.

The good news for Pliskova is that she has seen Barty six times, and even taken their lone meeting on grass, albeit six years ago, at Nottingham.

Other Key Factors

The great news for Pliskova is that she’s healthy and will have energy to make explosive movements and play the amount of defense necessary to keep her toe-to-toe with Barty. She has logged just 8:30 of court time through six matches, compared to 8:59 for Barty. Fitness should not be a huge factor in this match, and that’s great news for both.

Nerves could be a factor and, as always, there’s the potential for this contest to come down to which player handles the big moments better. Judging from what we’ve seen thus far from Barty and Pliskova, both seem well prepared to dig out some magic with a first Wimbledon title waiting as a reward. But we never know how a player will react to the pressure of playing a first Wimbledon final.

What they’re saying

Pliskova on facing barty:

“At least I have a feeling about the game overall with her, which is important. I mean, I don't really look if I lost or if I won because I know I beat her, I know I lost couple times, but every time it was kind of close match, a good match actually. I never played a horrible match against her.

“Of course she makes you feel a bit ugly with the game which she's playing. Also I had, like, a lot of chances last match we played. I think I had match point or was serving for the match. I know there's going to be many chances for me, as well. She's a really good player. She has a Grand Slam. Of course she wants to win another one. I'm not expecting anything easy. Definitely there's going to be chances.”

“You want to play the best player in the final. Of course, I don't want anybody else but her there. I mean, we had some good matches. Of course, I lost couple times. But I think she has extremely difficult game to play. It's going to be difficult on grass because of her slice and just her game overall.

“It's a final. Anything can happen. Also for her, I mean, I know she has a Grand Slam, but also for her is the first Wimbledon final. I think we both have good chances. It's going to be hopefully good match to watch as well because with her it's always interesting. We going to see what's going to happen.”

Barty on the secret of playing well at Wimbledon:

“It's growth, it's experience, it's a bit of everything. You also need a little bit of luck without a doubt. You need to be fit and healthy. I think probably the biggest thing on these courts is you need to have adaptability. The courts change dramatically from the start of the event to the end of the event.

Learning how to play and adjust the way you're playing as the grass changes is an important part. It gets quicker, it gets harder. I think being able to understand the differences in how the courts play as you move through is important. It's also about keeping it simple. Just going out there and enjoying the opportunity.”