By Chris Oddo | Monday April 1, 2019
Saying goodbye to the first three months of the 2019 tennis season. The traveling circus we know as the tennis tour can be a pretty rigorous endeavor. That’s why it’s important every once in a while to sit back and reflect, to stop the incessant march of time and savor the magic of the past.
Let it soak in....
Appreciate history...
Look at trends...
Reflect on the big picture...
And here we go….
Don’t Forget About Australia
Recency bias is a thing—and it’s real. So we must be careful not to put too much weight on the tennis we’ve watched in February and March. When we are talking about the big dogs of the 2019 tennis season we must start with our Aussie Open champions, Novak Djokovic and Naomi Osaka.
Djokovic and Osaka have won the last two slams on the men’s and women’s side and they are currently still ranked number one in the world.
It’s a massive story for both players. With regard to Djokovic it is big because he is gunning to hold all four majors at the same time for the second time. To most it would seem like a Herculean task but to a player with the Pedigree of Novak Djokovic it really does seem possible. At the very least it will add intrigue to the clay-court season. Think about it: Nadal questing for 12 Roland Garros title. Thiem, last year’s Roland Garros finalist, eager to take it a step further, and coming off his first Masters title at Indian Wells. Federer, back on the dirt, and of course—Djokovic.
It is worth noting that Djokovic struggled at Indian wells and Miami and that means there will be an ever critical eye on him as he plays his first events on Clay later this spring.
As far as Osaka goes, her picture is much more cloudy as the scene shifts to clay. She’ll head into this part of season with lowered expectations as she tries to continue to evolve as a player on tour. No need to overreact to her results on clay this spring, or on grass later this summer. We know what Osaka is capable of and anything she achieves off of hardcourts this season will be a bonus.
The next two months are all about clay. So what can three months of hardcourt tell us about what we might see on the Clay?
Hmmm...
Let’s start with Dominic Thiem at Indian Wells. If you’re looking ahead to clay you cannot overlook the importance of this title for Thiem.
By winning his first Masters 1000 title in the California desert the Austrian loaded up on confidence and will head into his favorite part of the season feeling good extremely good about himself. That’s really important for a guy who struggled mightily out of the blocks and also suffered through several weeks of illness prior to Indian Wells. With all that Jazz behind him expect the Austrian to be a big storyline as we move onto Clay.
Thiem, let us not forget that Thiem owns three wins over Nadal on clay and he has ten Top 10 wins on the surface in the last five seasons. Is he ready for the next step?
Andreescu Headed for Top 10?
We should quickly pivot to Bianca Andreescu at Indian Wells. The Canadian is a top 25 right now (23 to be specific) and she will likely be seated at Roland Garros. She also has a game that could be perfect on the red clay.
Andreescu’s tennis has been a revelation all season long. She comes from 152 to 23 in the rankings, and she was the youngest winner at Indian Wells on the women’s side in 20 years. She was also the first wildcard to ever win the BNP Paribas Open. And, honestly, the stats don’t even do Andreescu’s run justice. There’s just so much to like about Andreescu’s game, so much diversity and variation, that it’s easy to see her picking up this magical level on the clay.
Andreescu has quickly become a fetishized player by purists because of her variation and never-hit-the-same-shot-twice mindset. The Canadian has ample touch to burn and regularly torches victims with wicked dropshots that die like dandelion seeds in soft blades of grass.
And here’s a stat to blow your mind about teenagers and Indian Wells:
Of the six players 18 or younger to have won the Indian wells title on the women’s side, five went on to the US open final in the same season. It’s a small sample size, six instances. We get that. And it hasn’t happened since 2006–it might not relate to Andreescu.
It’s hard to believe that we’re already 30% through the tennis season. 2019 still feels like a newborn puppy in many ways. The icy veener of winter is only now fading in many locations and the true meat and bones of the tennis season is not yet upon us. And yet so much has transpired. Let us continue to reflect.
On Living Legends and New Opportunities
The top of the ATP totem pole is a little less populated these days now that Andy Murray is out of the game. He very well may return—shouts: who knows??? And throws hands up— but at the moment with Murray out and Stan Wawrinka not quite ready for prime time (also worth noting: Del Potro has been out rehabbing in March), it is more of a big three world than a big five World we are living in for the moment.
We haven’t seen a whole lot of Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal since the Australian open, which means it has been up to Roger Federer to keep lesser accomplished players from climbing up the totem pole.
The Swiss has done that nicely, winning his hundredth title in Dubai before reaching the final at Indian Wells and then claiming No.101 in Miami. Pretty insane what Federer has been able to do at 37.
Most guys Federer’s age struggle to remain relevant but the Swiss isn’t just relevant—he’s been the ATP’s best player over the last two months. He holds down the top spot in the Race to London standings and he’s dropped just 2 of 20 matches all season. How many of you saw that coming two and a half years ago, when Federer was hiking around the Swiss Alps during the U.S. Open in 2016?
Does this mean Federer’s going to win Roland Garros? Let’s be real: Nope. But if the clay thing goes well and makes him happy he’ll be in a position to contend as one of the favorites at Wimbledon once again.
Hard to really describe how impressive Federer has been; how well he maintains that fine-tuned machine and how cleverly he can cut into the games and psyches of the top challengers out there.
Maestro is a perfect way to say it.
The aforementioned absence of Novak Djokovic (figuratively) and Rafael Nadal (literally) from the last two months has opened up opportunities on the ATP side. Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime have stormed to the fore, making big statements and setting the table for what could be a brilliant spring for Canadian tennis—who would have believed last year at this time that Canada would have four players inside the Top 33?
The Canadians aren’t the only one who have stepped up and made statements over the season’s first three months.
Belinda Bencic, Ashleigh Barty and Petra Kvitova have each earned impressive titles and reeled off winning streaks of 10 or more matches this season. All three figure to be a big part of the WTA equations this summer.
There are other names as well.
How about Marketa Vondrousova, who reached back-to-back quarter-finals at Indian Wells and Miami? Or Hubert Hurkacz, who has knocked off Kei Nishikori (twice) and Dominic Thiem already this season? Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Aryna Sabalenka, Elina Svitolina and Miomir Kecmanovic are a few other players that have shown great tennis in the season’s first three months.
What’s Next for Serena the GOAT?
A lot has happened since we rang in the new year with tennis in Australia, but one thing that has not happened is Serena Williams raising a trophy. We’ll leave you with a quick work on the 23-time major champion. Serena has announced that she’ll return to action on the clay in Rome in May. If Serena finds that sweet spot for her body, where she is finally 100 percent healthy for a good month, she’ll have more chances to win majors. The flip side of course, is more of the same with regard to health issues leading to a season of disappointing fits and starts for the legendary Williams. If her chances of winning a 24th and 25th major title were seen as a lock when her comeback from a very tough pregnancy began, where are they now?
Williams’ window is closing with each passing year. There’s still time for her to become the dominant force we know and love before she rides off into the sunset, but not nearly as much as there used to be.