By Richard Pagliaro | Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Three undefeated players and one former champion share a Grand Slam dream. We preview the women's semifinals.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Grand vision and major revision are among the themes at play for the Australian Open semifinals.
The world No. 1 ranking is on the line as four semifinalists with three undefeated records and one shared goal face off in Rod Laver Arena.
Watch: Halep Sets Up Popcorn Match vs. Kerber
Two years after Angelique Kerber played the most brilliant match of her life toppling Serena Williams in the 2016 Australian Open final, she’s back playing some of the most dynamic tennis of her career.
The 30-year-old German is the lone Grand Slam champion still standing, while world No. 1 Simona Halep tries to hurdle a major obstacle win her first Grand Slam and retain the top spot in the rankings.
World No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki shares Halep quest aiming for her Grand Slam title and a return to the top spot, but she has to beat one of the hottest players on tour, Elise Mertens, to do it.
If Wozniacki reaches the final and Halep falls in the semis—or if the two-time Grand Slam finalist wins the title outright—Wozniacki would regain world No. 1 a full six years after she rose to the top spot, which would be the longest gap at stints at the top since the computer rankings were introduced in November, 1975.
Our semifinal preview and picks.
No. 37 Elise Mertens (BEL) vs. No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Head-to-head: Wozniacki leads 1-0
2018 Record: Mertens 9-0; Wozniacki 9-1
Best AO Result: Mertens 2018 semifinals; Wozniacki 2011, 2018 semifinals
Career Slam Semifinal Record: Mertens 0-0; Wozniacki 2-4
Career Three-Set Record: Mertens 16-8; Wozniacki 139-73
Why Mertens Will Win
Balanced Belgian Baller
The Australian Open debutant can inflict damage with either wing. While Wozniacki’s two-handed backhand is her kill shot and she tends to predictably play the forehand crosscourt, Mertens can locate forehand and backhand effectively and finish with swing volleys off both sides as she did winning seven straight games to subdue a hobbled Elina Svitolina.
Repelling Road Runners
While Wozniacki has a well-earned reputation as one of the game’s best movers, Mertens knows how to road block runners. The 22-year-old Belgian has already defeated two quick counterpunchers—23rd-seeded Daria Gavrilova and Alize Cornet—she’s practiced with Hall of Fame mentor and former world No. 1 Kim Clijsters and has already experienced the Dane’s determined retrieval skills when she pushed Wozniacki to three sets on the red clay of Bastad last year.
Timing & Transition
Throughout her undefeated season, Mertens’ skill crowding the baseline and taking the ball early has robbed opponents’ reaction time and give her access to sharper angles. Smooth transition skills and the confidence to close at net make Mertens more dangerous from more areas of the court as she showed successfully defending her Hobart title.
Why Wozniacki Will Win
Survival Skills
The former world No. 1 has been gritty and scrappy throughout. Wozniacki fought off a pair of match points and a 1-5 deficit in the decider surging through six straight games to rally past No.119 Jana Fett in the second round. Struggle can be strengthening: Since that match, Wozniacki has dished out two bagels and dropped only one set. Four women have gone on to win the Australian Open after surviving at least one match point during the tournament—Monica Seles (saved a match point vs. Mary Joe Fernandez in 1991 semifinals), Jennifer Capriati (saved four match points vs. Martina Hingis in 2002 final), Serena Williams (saved two match points vs. Kim Clijsters in 2003 semifinals) and Angelique Kerber (saved one match points vs. Misaki Doi in 2016 first round)—and Wozniacki has been very resourceful in Melbourne.
Stubborn Server
The 5-foot-10 Wozniacki has showed sting on serve when she’s needed it. Wozniacki has served 70 percent or better in her last three matches, including cracking 10 aces defeating Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarterfinals. The two-time US Open finalist has dropped serve just three times in her last three matches.
Experience & Extreme Toughness
Wozniacki has faced the best players on the game’s greatest stages as her 105 career major victories—most of any woman still standing—show. The woman who ran the 2014 New York City marathon loves the grind, will test Mertens in physical crosscourt rallies and will be prepared to pour every piece of herself into this match knowing this could be her best shot at capturing a Grand Slam title and regaining the world No. 1 ranking.
Prediction: The 22-year-old Mertens is bidding to become the 15th unseeded woman to reach a Grand Slam final and certainly has the skills to do it. Mertens’ all-court skills, greater variety and major inexperience can benefit her enabling her to swing freely against the former No. 1. Still, Wozniacki has been resurgent since her rousing second-round win from match points down and should find a way to fight her way into her first Australian Open final.
The Pick: Wozniacki defeats Mertens in three sets.
No. 1 Simona Halep (ROM) vs. No. 16 Angelique Kerber (GER)
Head-to-head: Even, 4-4
2018 Record: Halep 10-0; Kerber 10-0
Best AO Result: Halep 2018 semifinals; Kerber 2016 champion
Career Slam Semifinal Record: Halep 2-2; Kerber 3-2
Career Three-Set Record: Halep 82-45; Kerber 103-79
Why Halep Will Win
Rules Running Rallies
Getting a ball by the speedy Romanian is as easy as sneaking the sunrise past a rooster. The top seed saved three match points fighting past 76th-ranked American Lauren Davis, 4-6, 6-4, 15-13. Despite rolling her ankle earlier in the tournament, Halep has played exceptional counterstrikes during extended exchanges and can match Kerber’s quick first step.
Letting Loose
The two-time Roland Garros runner-up warmed up for Melbroune sweeping both singles and doubles titles in Shenzhen and showed a willingness to take the ball earlier and close net with high volleys when she’s stretched her opponent. When Halep gets tight her swings, particularly on the forehand, can get strained, but she hit out with vigor denying match points vs. Davis and has been attacking the ball.
Damaging Return
The second serve is the most suspect shot in Kerber’s game—she typically slides her second serve wide on the ad side—Halep knows that and will be determined to punish the German’s second delivery. Halep dismantled two of tennis’ biggest servers—Karolina Pliskova and Naomi Osaka— breaking each five times which should give her confidence to attack Kerber’s lefty delivery.
Why Kerber Will Win
Champion's Mentality
Unlike the other three semifinalists, Kerber isn’t playing on hope. She knows she can take the title because she already has. Kerber played brilliantly claiming her first major crown conquering Serena Williams in the 2016 Australian Open final. Past success infuses Kerber with confidence: If you can beat Serena in a Grand Slam final you can beat anyone in a major semifinal.
Driving Down Line
Working with coach Wim Fissette, Kerber has reasserted one of her best weapons—the down the line dagger. Her ability to curl her lefty forehand crosscourt to corner right-handed opponents on their backhand side then unleashe the forehand strike down the line has been a key component to her undefeated start. Kerber changes direction better than any of the four semifinalists.
Confidence and Quickness
The former No. 1 absolutely annihilated two of the game’s biggest hitters—Maria Sharapova and Madison Keys—and displayed her acumen for the creative counter-strike fending off veteran Su-Wei Hsieh in a spirited battle. Kerber can match Halep’s court coverage and is adept playing shorter, sharper angles to drag opponents wide.
Prediction: A true toss-up match. Given the guts and grit Halep showed in a spirited epic win over Davis it would be fitting if she rode that momentum into her first Australian Open final. Kerber has a love of the good fight and many positive memories of Rod Laver Arena. This is a match that could come down to serving efficiency and the courage to take the first strike. I think Kerber can play a little more offensively on hard courts, she should be healthier given Halep's ankle issue, she's a proven champion and for those reasons, I give her a very slight edge.
The Pick: Kerber defeats Halep in three sets.