By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, January 26, 2018

A down under dream final is a crowning of firsts.

World No. 1 Simona Halep and second-ranked Caroline Wozniacki square off for the sixth time in Saturday’s Australian Open final with history and legacy on the line.

More: Women's Final By The Numbers

The winner will capture her maiden major and seize the world No. 1 ranking in the process.

The final pits players of similar styles.



Both are two-time Grand Slam finalists, exceptional movers and extremely accurate on the counter-strike. Both possess stinging two-handed backhands, stubborn will and unrelenting stamina. Both have been resourceful and revitalized repelling match points en route to the final.

Wozniacki fought off a pair of match points and a 1-5 deficit in the decider surging through six straight games to rally past No.119 Jana Fett in the second round. Struggle can be strengthening: Since that match, Wozniacki has dished out two bagels and dropped only one set.

The top-seeded Halep showed steely determination and courage saving two match points to edge 2016 champion Angelique Kerber in an epic semifinal thriller that came three rounds after she staved off triple match point subduing Lauren Davis, 4-6, 6-4,15-13 in a three hour, 45-minute classic.

Four women have gone on to win the Australian Open after surviving at least one match point during the tournament: Monica Seles (saved a match point vs. Mary Joe Fernandez in 1991 semifinals), Jennifer Capriati (saved four match points vs. Martina Hingis in 2002 final), Serena Williams (saved two match points vs. Kim Clijsters in 2003 semifinals) and Angelique Kerber (saved one match points vs. Misaki Doi in 2016 first round).

The world’s top two square off with the top spot and Australian Open championship on the line.

Here’s our final preview and prediction.

No. 1 Simona Halep (ROM) vs. No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)

Head-to-Head: Wozniacki leads 4-2

Hard Court Head-to-Head: Even, 2-2

2018 Record: Halep 11-0; Wozniacki 10-1

Best AO Result: Halep 2018 final; Wozniacki 2018 final

Career Slam Final Record: Halep 0-2; Wozniacki 0-2

Career Three-Set Record: Halep 83-45; Wozniacki 139-73

Simona Halep on Caroline Wozniacki: “The way she's playing, she's not missing. She's running very well. So she's a strong opponent. I played many times, yeah, like you said. I won against her few times. It's going to be a different match, new match, a tough one. Emotions are there. Pressures are there for both of us. We'll see what is gonna happen.”

Caroline Wozniacki on Simona Halep: “Obviously Halep, just like me, was down match points early on in the tournament, has come back and fought her way. I think it's exciting because we're both playing for the No. 1 ranking. Whoever wins on Saturday will be on the top of the rankings, which I think is a cool storyline... As I said early on in the week, I could have been home already. But now I'm here and I fought my way all the way to the finals. I'm just really proud of that and really excited. A new opportunity on Saturday, and I'm going to do my best to try and win it.”

Why Halep Will Win

Peak Play

The top seed has denied match points and exuded raw determination winning two of the most riveting Grand Slam matches in recent memory. Halep saved three match points fighting past 76th-ranked American Lauren Davis, 4-6, 6-4, 15-13 then staved off two match points and converted her fourth edging 2016 champion Angelique Kerber, 6-3, 4-6, 9-7, in an epic semifinal. Struggle has strengthened her. A resilient Halep is competing with courage and conviction and playing her best tennis when she needs it most right now.

Forcing Forehand

Both finalists own dynamic two-handed backhands, but Halep’s forehand is a more versatile and potentially more damaging shot. Halep can hit sharper and shorter angles off her forehand and is more adept changing direction and driving the forehand down the line whereas Wozniacki tends to predictably player her forehand crosscourt. When she’s confident, Halep can crowd the baseline, take the ball early and punish the Dane’s forehand to try to elicit the mid-court ball. The quicker Rod Laver Arena court can favor the player who can take the ball on the rise. Look for Halep to do that, hit behind Wozniacki on occasion and sometimes play deep down the middle to jam the second seed on her weaker forehand wing.

Statement Slam

The two-time French Open finalist has redefined herself as a major fighter in Melbourne. Winning requires problem-solving and the undefeated Romanian has deciphered every dilemma she’s faced this season. Halep tuned up for Melbourne sweeping singles and doubles titles in Shenzhen, she’s playing her most dynamic tennis right now and she’s beaten tougher opposition en route to the final, including three former Grand Slam finalists—Kerber, Karolina Pliskova and Eugenie Bouchard—which should prepare her for Wozniacki. Little has fazed Halep, whose clothing contract with adidas ended at the end of 2017 prompting her to order a red outfit she calls "plain" online from a Chinese seamtress. Red can represent luck, joy and happiness in China's culture. Halep has shown the grit and guts of a Grand Slam champion and if she sustains it, she will win.




Why Wozniacki Will Win

Declarative Delivery

Holding serve is imperative amid the spiking jitters of major finals. Wozniacki has served with more authority through each passing round. Hitting all corners of the box, Wozniacki has dropped serve only four times in her last four matches. She cracked 10 aces conquering Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarterfinals and smacked seven aces and permitted just seven points on her first serve in her semifinal win over Elise Mertens. Wozniacki served 70 percent in three of her last four matches and if she’s landing her first serve, she can take the first strike.

Physical Presence

The current and former world No. 1 pair play a similar counter-punching style, but Wozniacki is the bigger, stronger athlete. The 5-foot-10 Dane is four inches taller than Halep and owns a more expansive reach, which gives her more leverage on serve and the ability to scrape shots out of the corners and flick back stretched replies. Wozniacki beat Halep badly at her own game, 6-0, 6-2, in their last meeting at the WTA Finals in Singapore and believes she can win playing her game whereas Halep must step out of her comfort zone and play with more aggression.

Title Timing

Tennis is all about timing and the time is now for Wozniacki. In her prior two finals, Wozniacki was simply outplayed by Hall of Famer Kim Clijsters in the 2009 US Open final and by 23-time Grand Slam champion in the 2014 Flushing Meadows final. In this match-up, Wozniacki knows Halep cannot bully her around the court and must build points through shot combination. Wozniacki should be a bit fresher and stronger and will be eager knowing this is her best shot to master a major. Wozniacki has found personal peace off court with her engagement to former NBA star David Lee and should be confident against an opponent she’s handled in the past.

Prediction: Grand Slam struggle is empowering. Sloane Stephens grinded through four three-setters vs. seeded opponents en route to her maiden major at the US Open in September and Jelena Ostapenko rallied from a set down four times during her inspired run to her first career title at Roland Garros.

Grand Slam struggle is exhausting and can create flat finals. Sabine Lisicki scored three-set wins over Serena Williams, Samantha Stosur and Agnieszka Radwanska to reach the 2013 Wimbledon final where the emotionally-spent German offered little resistance to Marion Bartoli. Dominika Cibulkova knocked off Carla Suarez Navarro, Maria Sharapova, Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska in succession to charge into the 2014 Australian Open final, but was toast by the second set of a 7-6 (3), 6-0 loss to Li Na.

Halep, who rolled her left ankle in the first round and strained her right foot compensating for it, has taken enough of a physical pounding to make even Job wince. Yet, in a weird way all the aches and pains have helped her channel stress and overcome all challenges. She’s withstood everything thrown at her and remains undefeated and undeterred.

Wozniacki combines sprinter’s speed with a marathoner’s maniacal dedication and now she’s one good run from realizing her career dreams all in one day. Don’t discount Halep’s will power and her willingness to step up and accelerate aggression at crunch time. Halep has gone the distance in both of her prior Grand Slam finals and in both cases she was up against explosive power players capable of hitting her off the court. Wozniacki is not that player.

If both women manage their nerves and are landing first serves, this figures to be a physical three-set grind. Given the mileage Halep has put on her legs and Wozniacki’s extreme fitness I believe the grind favors Wozniacki, who has also shown a flair for landing big first serves. Wozniacki knows how to win—she’s collected 27 titles in her career and is coming off her biggest victory at the WTA Finals last fall—and knows her time is now.

The Pick: Caroline Wozniacki defeats Simona Halep in three sets.