By Chris Oddo | Friday September 8, 2017
It will be Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens in the first all-American women's singles final at the U.S. Open since 2002.
Photo Source: Clive Brunskill/Getty
A pair of first-time Grand Slam finalists, and Americans, will contest one of the more unlikely U.S Open women’s singles final that we’ve seen in quite some time on Saturday evening in New York. 24-year-old Sloane Stephens, ranked outside the top 900 when the summer began, and 22-year-old Madison Keys, who underwent not one but two wrist surgeries earlier this season, will square off for the second time underneath the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Join us as we break down the matchup below.
Statisfaction:
1. The 2017 US Open final will see both players make their Grand Slam final debuts. This is only the seventh occasion in the Open Era (and second time at the US Open) that two first-time finalists have faced off in a Grand Slam final.
2. At the US Open, this is the 10th time that two players from USA will meet in the singles final, and the first time that we will see an all-American women’s singles final at the U.S. Open that does not feature the Williams sisters since 1984.
3. With a combined ranking of 99, the match-up between No.16 Keys and No.83 Stephens is the lowest for the title match at the US Open since computerized rankings began in November 1975.
4. Unranked players aside, Stephens is second-lowest ranked player to reach the title match at a Grand Slam, after No.111 Chris O’Neil at the 1978 Australian Open. Stephens is the lowest-ranked player to ever reach a U.S. Open final.
5. If Stephens wins the title, her victory will mark the first time in Open Era history that two unseeded players have won Grand Slam women’s titles in the same season. Jelena Ostapenko, who won Roland Garros, was the other.
6. Since computer rankings began in November 1975 only two players – the unranked Kim Clijsters in 2009 and No.26 Flavia Pennetta in 2015 – have won the US Open title ranked outside the Top 10. Stephens or Keys will be the third.
What the Finalists are saying:
Sloane Stephens, on toughness: “When I am on the court, I realize if I just stay positive with myself, I can make a lot of things happen, and I can fight back from a lot of things. It's basically just what I think about. Like, just get my racquet on every ball and stay positive, and something good will come of it.”
Sloane Stephens, on facing Keys: “I have known her for a long time. She's probably one of my closest friends on tour. Love her to death. I don't know. I don't know how old I was when we met, but we have -- I mean, like I said, she's one of my closest friends on tour. It's obviously going to be tough. It's not easy playing a friend.”
Madison Keys, on Sloane Stephens: “I think Sloane is really good at defending, obviously, but I think we're similar in the fact that we both like to try to attack and be on offense. Yeah, I mean, I would say she's probably more comfortable defending and not going for bigger shots before me, but I would say we are very similar in a lot of ways.”
Madison Keys, on friendship with Sloane Stephens: “I have known Sloane since we were juniors. We played junior tournaments together. We have been on Fed Cup teams together. Whenever we are around, we try to go to dinner with each other and hang out. More than that, she's always someone who I know, you know, is always there watching, and she'll text me no matter what. We are always kind of keeping tabs on each other and rooting for each other.”
The Matchup
[15] Madison Keys vs. Sloane Stephens
Career H2H: Stephens leads, 1-0
There are lots of similarities between this year’s U.S. Open finalists. Each player was tabbed as a future star after reaching a maiden Grand Slam semifinal as a 19-year-old, and each has struggled in the ensuing years to follow through on that success. Keys has been a more consistent force at the majors, and she has achieved a higher ranking. Keys peaked at No.7 (Stephens topped out at No.11) in the world and she has amassed 93 wins since the beginning of 2015, including eight Top 10 wins, while reaching the second week in eight of 12 majors.
Stephens took a step back in her development after displaying so much promise as a teenager. She reached the second week of a major seven times in three seasons between 2012 and 2014, but since 2015 began and before this year’s U.S. Open she had only gone 9-8 at the majors, reaching the second week only once (at the 2015 French Open).
In a lot of ways, having a serious foot injury, and then surgery, may have been a blessing in disguise for Stephens. She had the surgery this winter and has returned to the sport with a new lease on life. That isn’t to say that the American wasn’t on the upswing before her surgery. Working with coach Kamau Murray, she was very much a player on the rise in 2016 and notched three titles to triple her career total.
Her rise this summer, where she has compiled a 14-2 record since the start of the hardcourt summer and notched six Top 20 wins, is further proof that Stephens is taking her game to a new level. Her performance in Thursday’s semifinal was brilliant. Stephens combined world-class athleticism, defensive prowess, and a newfound grit and determination to eliminate seven-time major champion Venus Williams in three tough sets.
Keys has also struggled with injuries and she had to miss this year’s Australian Open due to a wrist injury that has required two surgeries and left many wondering if she would be a factor at all this season. Keys got her season started at Indian Wells, but in reality she was nowhere near 100 percent until the summer. After a second-round loss at Wimbledon, Like Stephens, Keys found her game on the North American hardcourts. She won the Stanford title and pushed Garbiñe Muguruza to a third-set tiebreaker before falling to the soon to be World No.1 at Cincinnati.
Like Stephens, Keys has saved her best for New York. She rallied from a break down in the third to defeat No.4-seeded Elina Svitolina in the round of 16 and the rest has been history. Keys has dropped just nine games in her last two matches to reach her maiden major final.
Stephens defeated Keys in the pair’s lone meeting easily at Miami in 2015, and she did so by winning 50 percent of her return points against Keys. That’s a very big number, considering how big and dominant Keys’ serve is. But it was more than two years ago, and both players have come such a long way since. Expect their second meeting to be a crisper, more confidently played affair.
Keys will try to negate Stephens’ athleticism by executing first strikes, and here ability do this will likely be what the match hinges upon. We’ve seen Keys struggle with players like Halep and Wozniacki in a pretty big way (she’s 1-7 lifetime against the two grinding baseliners), and she’ll have to find a way to overcome this pattern against a player that has proven to be remarkably good at defending in New York.
Stephens has broken serve more than any other player in New York (29 breaks to 23 for Keys) and if she can keep up that type of pressure in the final, she’ll be in good position to take the title. Keys has won 70 percent of first-serve points in six matches and 52 percent of second-serve points—if she can keep those numbers there, and win her share of the big points, she’ll have a good chance put the pressure on Stephens.
It’s primed to be a close match, and on such a big occasion for both, it might just be execution in the bigger moments that makes the difference.
Prediction:
Stephens in three.