By Richard Pagliaro | Tuesday, March 7, 2017
Since her loss to Johanna Konta in the Sydney final, Agnieszka Radwanska has not won back-to-back matches.
Photo credit: Jared Wickerham/BNP Paribas Open Facebook
The Australian Open represented restoration and renewal for Serena Williams, who captured her Open Era record 23rd Grand Slam title and regained the world No. 1 with a dynamic performance Down Under.
The WTA Tour rolls into Indian Wells for this week’s BNP Paribas Open with signs of shifting sightlines on the horizon.
More: Indian Wells Women's Draw Preview
By the time the desert dust settles we will see a new Indian Wells champion—reigning champion Victoria Azarenka is not playing after giving birth to her first child—and possibly a new world No. 1.
US Open champion Angelique Kerber could surpass Serena Williams to regain the world No. 1 ranking if the 2016 tournament runner-up bows before the semifinals. Here are the other scenarios for the world No. 2 to rise to the top spot.
Several seeds will try to shake injury, inactivity and indecision that have contributed to slow starts. Here are our picks for five players facing significant challenges in Indian Wells.
No. 2 Angelique Kerber
2016 Indian Wells Result: Second round.
Best Indian Wells Result: Semifinals (2012 lost to Victoria Azarenka, 2013 lost to Caroline Wozniacki).
Draw: The two-time Grand Slam champion could face friend and fellow German Andrea Petkovic in her opener. Kerber, who has won seven of 10 meetings with the 79th-ranked Petkovic, may play Agnieszka Radwanska, Venus Williams or reigning Indian Wells doubles champion CoCo Vandeweghe, who crushed her at the Australian Open, in the Indian Wells quarterfinals.
Key Stat: The second serve has long been the left-hander’s most suspect shot. This season, opponents are attacking it with greater vigor: Kerber has 17 aces against 58 double faults.
The Challenge: The good news is Kerber can pick up significant ranking points after losing her BNP Paribas Open opener and reclaim world No. 1. The bad news is she’s looked banged-up, both physically and emotionally, at times in sputtering to a 7-5 start amid the pressure of flirting with a return to the top. The sturdy German is coming off her best result of the year with a run to the Dubai semifinals, but played matches with taping beneath her knee and was pained by a knee injury in her loss to Elina Svitolina.
Confessional Comment: “I'm not thinking about (No. 1). I mean, everybody is writing or asking or whatever, but for me, I know how it feels to be No. 1. I reach it once, and for sure I will try to get back there. But for me it's really important to be healthy, and at the end, if I play consistent the next weeks or months, then we will see what's happen then, but for the moment, I mean, I'm not looking about the number before my name, actually.”—Angelique Kerber reveals her thoughts on the top spot in Dubai.
No. 4 Simona Halep
2016 Indian Wells Result: Quarterfinals.
Best Indian Wells Result: 2015 Champion.
Draw: Kristina Mladenovic, who has won two of three meetings with Halep, is a potential third-round opponent with No. 5-seeded Dominika Cibulkova, who is 4-2 lifetime vs. the Romanian, including an Indian Wells’ win, a possible quarterfinal opponent.
Key Stat: Four of Halep’s five career Indian Wells’ losses have come against Grand Slam champions or major finalists.
The Challenge: The 25-year-old Romanian has been pained by left knee tendinitis playing the WTA Finals in Singapore last fall. Halep has not played a match since defeating Ana Konjuh in her St. Petersburg opener last month. She withdrew from St. Petersburg because of her knee issue. Movement and repetition are critical to the 5-foot-6 Romanian’s success yet Halep, who has spent some time training in Las Vegas, arrives in the desert confronting questions in both areas with just two victories this season.
Confessional Comment: “I'm a bit frustrated, but you cannot change much. I'm okay. Just looking ahead. It happens, and I just want to be well with the knee. And then I will think about the game… I can play about 45, 50 minutes without pain. And then it comes.”—Simona Halep on knee tendonitis she suffered in her Australian Open first-round loss to Shelby Rogers.
No. 6 Agnieszka Radwanska
2016 Indian Wells Result: Semifinals.
Best Indian Wells Result: 2014 Finalist, lost to Flavia Pennetta.
Draw: A possible opener against dangerous lefty Grand Slam doubles champion Ekaterina Makarova followed by the prospect of a fourth-round clash with an American power player— either Australian Open finalist Venus Williams or Australian Open semifinalist CoCo Vandeweghe.
Key Stat: Since her loss to Johanna Konta in the Sydney final, the Ninja has not won back-to-back matches suffering losses to No. 79 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, No. 18 Caroline Wozniacki and No. 70 CiCi Bellis in her last three events.
The Challenge: One of the sport’s shrewdest players has been vulnerable to aggressive baseliners who have forced her to play the edges diminishing her counter-strike skills. Radwanska could meet several heavy hitters capable of cornering her just to reach a possible quarterfinal with second-ranked Angelique Kerber. Radwanska, who opened the year playing with a new Srixon racquet, has been practicing with her previous stick, the Babolat Pure Drive, in Indian Wells.
Confessional Comment: “Mentally, I feel much younger. Physically, I feel much older. It's hard to say, generally just to put everything together, how I feel, what year. Like you saying, I've been on the tour 11 years now. It's quite a long time. Physically, for sure, I'm not feeling so young.”—Agnieszka Radwanska discussing how she feels in Doha.
No. 7 Garbine Muguruza
2016 Indian Wells Result: Second round.
Best Indian Wells Result: 2013 Round of 16, lost to Angelique Kerber.
Draw: No. 10 Elina Svitolina, who has already won two titles this year, could await Muguruza in the fourth round. They’ve split four meetings. The winner of that match could meet world No. 1 Serena Williams in the quarterfinals.
Key Stat: As a 95th-ranked qualifier, Muguruza posted her best Indian Wells result four years ago. Since then, she’s slumped to a 1-3 record in the desert with her lone victory a three-set triumph over 103rd-ranked wild card Irina Falconi in 2015.
The Challenge: The reigning Roland Garros champion started the season on a 7-2 surge, but has been wracked by pain managing just one tournament win since then. Muguruza has two retirements in four tournaments this season, including suffering a left Achilles injury that forced her to retire in Dubai, and she’s struggled to find answers when her flat strikes have gone awry. Muguruza’s movement looked more comfortable playing the BNP Paribas Challenge exhibition at Madison Square Garden on Monday night.
Confessional Comment: “In Australia it was, like, my adductor. I had pain in my adductor… I mean, it's normal to have pain when you're a professional athlete, but not when you start the tournament, kind of. When you start and you feel like, man, I'm not 100 percent, you kind of feel a little bit down.”—Garbine Muguruza discussing her retirement in Dubai.
No. 9 Madison Keys
2016 Indian Wells Result: Second round.
Best Indian Wells Result: Third round 2015 lost to Jelena Jankovic.
Draw: Talented Russian Daria Kasatkina, who has two wins over Kerber this year and pushed Keys to three sets in Wuhan last fall, could spoil the powerful American’s return in the second round. Potential round of 16 opponents include fifth-seeded Dominika Cibulkova, explosive Naomi Osaka or Carla Suarez Navarro.
Key Stat: Keys has yet to beat a Top 40 opponent in six career Indian Wells appearances. Though both of her titles have come on British grass courts, Keys reached two finals on North American soil—Charleston (2015) and Montreal (2016). Keys posted a 23-9 record after Wimbledon last year.
The Challenge: Arthroscopic surgery on her left wrist has sidelined Keys, who has not played a Tour-level match since falling to Kerber in the WTA Finals in Singapore last October. Keys will hit the competitive ground running with a possible opener against the 19-year-old Kasatkina. Reuniting with coach Lindsay Davenport, who coached Keys earlier in her career, should be be beneficial. Davenport, one of the best ball strikers the United States has ever produced, can help the 22-year-old shore up two of her sometime weaknesses: point construction and match management. Keys, who sometimes overhits her returns, would be wise to occasionally employ the Davenport tactic of drilling returns deep down the middle denying opponents' angles and setting herself up for an attacking second shot.