By Richard Pagliaro | Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Ousted in his Miami Open opener last year, Rafael Nadal could face Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16 this year.
Photo credit: Miami Open
Tennis’ most iconic rivalry is rooted in the competitive garden that is Crandon Park.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal launched their historic rivalry in the second round of the 2004 Miami Open when a then 34th-ranked Nadal signaled his status as a future champion stunning world No. 1 Federer, 6-3, 6-3.
Miami Open: See the Full Men's Singles Draw Here
A year later, they met in the Miami final with Federer fighting back from a two-set deficit to wear Nadal down in five.
Fresh off their fourth-round meeting in Indian Wells, Roger and Rafa could reunite in the Miami Open final though the draw presents significant challenges for both.
The elbow-induced injury withdrawals of world No. 1 and sometime Miami resident Andy Murray and reigning champion Novak Djokovic may make this Miami Open men’s draw look wide open on the surface.
Together, Djokovic and Murray have dominated Miami like no pair since LeBron and D-Wade combining to claim seven of the last eight Crandon Park championships.
However, their absences haven’t diminished early challenges for fellow Grand Slam champions.
Top-seeded Stan Wawrinka could open against Feliciano Lopez or Alexander Dolgopolov. The 67th-ranked Dolgopolov has won two of three meetings with Wawrinka, including a three-set win at the 2014 Miami Open.
If seeds hold true to form, Wawrinka would face 16th-seeded Alexander Zverev in a fourth-round rematch of their 2016 St. Petersburg final, which Zverev won in three sets.
The winner of that match could meet one of two former Miami semifinalists, either eighth-seeded David Goffin or 12th-seeded Nick Kyrgios in the quarterfinals. Kyrgios opens against either Hyeon Chung or Damir Dzumhur, who upset Nadal in Miami last season.
Federer defeated former Olympic gold medal doubles partner Wawrinka in the Indian Wells final on Sunday and they arrive in Miami on course for a possible semifinal showdown more than a decade after Federer captured his second Miami championship.
The then top-ranked Federer squeezed out a 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, decision over Ljubicic in the 2006 final and would go on to beat a 67th-ranked Djokovic in his Monte Carlo opener stretching his winning streak to 13 matches.
It’s been 11 years since Federer pulled off the Sunshine Double winning Indian Wells and Miami in succession.
While Federer exploited the dry desert air and fast-flying ball in Indian Wells with sharp attacking all-court play, he knows heavy humidity and unruly bluster in Miami can make the transition between the two tournaments feel as different as driving a formula one car on a test track and being stuck in the slog of a traffic jam.
“I know how hard it is to win back-to-back Indian Wells and Miami titles,” Federer said. “That's why again I sort of go to Miami knowing, like, it's going to be really difficult. I don't know the draw yet. As we know in Masters 1000s, draws are brutal early on already. There is no warming up and playing qualifiers ranked 250, sometimes, which even they are not easy to beat sometimes on any given day. And especially best of three sets, margins are small.
“And then Miami is going to be different. It's going to be humid, it's going to be windy, day sessions, night sessions, all that stuff.”
Conditions could spike to dangerous levels if Federer faces Juan Martin del Potro in round three. The 29th-seeded Argentine, who sometimes trains at Crandon Park, will play either Robin Haase or Swedish wild card Mikael Ymer in his first-round match. Federer has won 15 of 20 career meetings with del Potro, but the Olympic silver medalist outdueled Federer in the 2009 US Open final and has prevailed in three of their last five meetings.
The winner of del Potro-Federer could meet either 14th-seeded Roberto Bautista Agut or 22nd-seeded Sam Querrey in the fourth round followed by a quarterfinal with either eighth-seeded Dominic Thiem or 10th-seeded Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals.
Federer is 17-6 vs. Berdych, but the big-hitting Czech won their 2010 Miami meeting in a third-set tie break. Thiem has beaten Federer in two of three meetings, but has yet to defeat the 35-year-old Swiss on a hard court.
Continuing his quest for his first Miami title, Nadal will play either Dudi Sela or a qualifier in his opener.
Residing in the bottom half of the draw, the four-time Miami finalist could face Grigor Dimitrov in a round of 16 rematch of their epic five-set Australian Open semifinal battle. The ninth-seeded Bulgarian may have to beat 23rd-seeded American Steve Johnson to set up a rematch with Nadal.
Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic and Indian Wells semifinalist Jack Sock could square off in the fourth round for the 11th time. Four of those 11 meetings have been decided by third-set tie breaks. The winner of Raonic-Sock could face Nadal in the quarterfinals.
Second-seeded Kei Nishikori, who has reached the semifinals in two of the last three years, could be tested early possibly playing big-serving South African and Florida resident Kevin Anderson in his opener.
Nishikori, who grew up playing at the IMG Bollettieri Academy in Bradenton, is comfortable adapting to the sticky, sometimes swirling Key Biscayne conditions because of his sharp footwork and compact backswings. The 2016 Miami finalist could play Dubai runner-up Fernando Verdasco in the third round.
If seeds hold true in the final quarter, Nishikori would play seventh-seeded Marin Cilic in a rematch of the 2014 US Open final. Though Cilic contested the Acapulco semifinals earlier this month, he has struggled suffering three opening-round exits, including an Indian Wells loss to Taylor Fritz, in six tournaments.
Should Cilic falter early, 11th-seeded Lucas Pouille, who lost to Donald Young in Indian Wells and could play the left-handed American again in his Miami opener, is a threat in this quarter. Pouille is also partnering Indian Wells tournament director Tommy Haas in the doubles draw.