By Chris Oddo | Saturday January 20, 2017
As we prepare for the round of 16 at Melbourne, we take a moment to break down the draw (again), looking at the key matchups that await us in the week ahead:
What does Istomin’s upset mean for the men’s side?
Grigor Dimitrov must be pleased. Not only is he into the round of 16 in Melbourne, he also gets to face a player ranked outside the Top 100. Those that are paying attention are saying that Dimitrov is playing his best tennis since reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2014. He bashed 48 winners against just 26 unforced errors in his third-round win over Richard Gasquet, and if he is really playing as well as we think he is then he has a legitimate shot to not just defeat Istomin but also reach the semis and maybe even the final.
Why not?
Of course Djokovic’s departure from the draw opens up the draw for everyone in the bottom half, so opportunity awaits for the likes of Rafa Nadal, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem and David Goffin. Heck, even Denis Istomin, who defeated Pablo Carreno Busta on Day 6, is still in the mix.
Serena Williams, Pliskova emerging as favorites?
The first week has seen a lot of jockeying for favorite status, and we’ve seen defending champion and World No.1 Angie Kerber marginalized by the pundits based on her less than stunning form in the first two rounds. Kerber hasn’t served very well, but week two is here and she’s very much alive in the draw, so maybe we ought to consider her as a legitimate contender for this title?
But in truth, there are others that appear more likely to rise.
Serena Williams, thought by many to have the most difficult draw in week one, has passed with flying colors. Fifth-seeded Karolina Pliskova has also been talked up as a possible champion in Melbourne, and she’s still alive despite seeing Jelena Ostapenko serve for the match twice in the third set against her last night. In the match, Pliskova showed that she’s human and therefore beatable, but she also found a way to win, just like she did against Venus Williams at last year’s U.S. Open when she saved a match point to reach the quarterfinals.
Pliskova went on to reach the final in New York. Can she use this emotional victory against Ostapenko as fuel for another deep run in Melbourne?
If Pliskova and Serena continue to advance, they’ll meet in what would be a to-die-for semifinal.
Don’t sleep on Konta and Muguruza
Garbiñe Muguruza is looking really strong thus far in Melbourne and has seemed to shake off the thigh injury that many were worrying about as the week started. Why aren’t more people talking about the Spaniard as a possible title winner? Johanna Konta has not dropped a set in Melbourne and she’s 11-1 on the season. Is Konta, a semifinalist at the AO last year, ready to hit that next level?
Andy Murray is going to be a tough, tough out
Andy Murray is sustaining his remarkable form, and he’
s been magnificent thus far at Melbourne. This is Murray’s time, and though he had his 26-match winning streak snapped at Doha by Novak Djokovic, the Serb is gone from the draw and Murray is looking at a chance to pad his lead over Djokovic for the No.1 ranking while also asserting himself at the top of the ATP pecking order.
Watching Murray, one can’t help but feel that he’s an athlete in possession of his powers like never before. He’s likely aware of the fact that time is running out for him to be a dominant force in men’s tennis, he’ll turn 30 this May, so he wants to do everything he can to prolong this amazing run.
If there is one player who can rise above the rest right now it is Murray. He’s at the peak of his powers. He is fit. He is reading and reacting to the subtle intonations of his opponents with ease. His return is on fire. His groundstrokes are ridiculously consistent. He’s a supreme defender and a stellar tactician. There’s nothing bad we can say about him right now. Even the draw has broken in his favor. He plays Mischa Zverev in the round of 16, while Kei Nishikori and Roger Federer will have to slug it out in the round of 16 encounter opposite him.
When he likely faces the winner of that match, how much will either have left for him?
Can Federer possibly top his Berdych beatdown?
Roger Federer was resplendent in his thrashing of Tomas Berdych in the third round. It was Roger Federer as Religious Experience in full regalia. Mind-blowing stuff, to be sure. Who knew that Roger could be this good, this fast this season? It was a match very much reminiscent of Federer’s straight sets beating of Andy Murray in the Wimbledon semifinals of 2015. Not many expected Federer to be that dominant on that day—and yet he was.
If he plays that well for the rest of the tournament Federer can win this title. No doubt about it. But even Federer hinted that he might not be able to reach that level again in Melbourne. Was it a one-off for Federer and will he come back to earth against Nishikori, or is Federer’s body and tennis soul benefitting from the six month hiatus in such a way that he’ll prove able to prolong his fantastic tennis throughout the second week?
And what about Nadal?
Now that Nadal has gotten the monkey off his back and snapped his three-match losing streak in five-setters, can he take off on a confidence-inspired run? He’ll face Gael Monfils next. Lamonf is coming into his own as a professional and it will be no easy task. Nadal has won four straight vs. Monfils and 12 of 14 lifetime. If he passes the Monfils test, Raonic, who many consider a threat to win this title, is next. What are Nadal’s chances of getting to the semis? Hard to say…
And what about Stanimal?
We know that the longer Stan Wawrinka stays alive in a Grand Slam draw, the more dangerous he becomes. And his draw is very favorable. Stan gets Andreas Seppi today, and the winner of Tsonga vs. Dan Evans in the quarterfinals if he wins. Everybody should be on Stanimal alert right now…
Most capable of a semifinal shock appearance on the women’s side
We can see Daria Gavrilova going on a run to the semis, but she’ll have to find a way to get by Karolina Pliskova to do it. If she does somehow shock Pliskova (the Aussie faithful will certainly try to will her), she’ll face either Jen Brady or Mirjana Lucic-Baroni next.
Most capable of a semifinal surprise on the men’s side
How about David Goffin? The Belgian has quietly made his way into the round of 16 and is certainly talented enough to reach his first career major semifinal.