By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, January 22, 2015
Bernard Tomic faces fellow Aussie Sam Groth in the Australian Open third round.
Photo credit: corleve
Each day we'll preview and predict results for four must-see Melbourne matches. Day 5 previews are here.
(22) Karolina Pliskova (CZE) vs. (10) Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
Margaret Court Arena (First match)
Head-to-head: Makarova leads 1-0
A two-time Australian Open quarterfinalist, Makarova knows what it takes to reach the second week in Oz. Pliskova is pushing hard for a major breakthrough. The 22-year-old Czech is playing for her first trip to the fourth round in her 11th Grand Slam appearance.
If this match is anything like their prior clash — a 6-3, 7-6 (7) Makarova victory in the 2014 Pattaya City final — service breaks will be scarce and the second serve will be critical. Makarova saved all five break points she faced and scored the lone break in the second to last game of the first set in that tight test.
Pliskova possesses a more powerful first serve — she hit 10 aces in their prior match and has 21 aces in five sets in Melbourne — but Makarova backs up her second serve better. The left-handed Russian's tricky slice serve can drag opponents off the court on the ad side. Makarova has dropped serve only twice in four sets.
A 2014 Australian Open doubles finalist, Makarova is the more experienced, steadier player. She faced another massive server, Madison Keys, in an opening-round doubles victory, which should help prepare her for the Czech's serve.
Pliskova is the more explosive player who can dictate play against Top 10 players when she's landing her serve-forehand combinations. Pliskova beat two-time Victoria Azarenka in Brisbane, then dispatched No. 9 Angelique Kerber to reach the Sydney final where she pushed Petra Kvitova to two tie break sets. Tie breakers could come into play here, which could favor the more experienced Russian. But Pliskova has played assertive this month, she looks eager to reach the fourth round for the first time and I believe she'll make it.
The Pick: Pliskova in 3 sets
(7) Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) vs. Caroline Garcia (FRA)
Rod Laver Arena (Second match)
Head-to-head: Garcia leads 1-0
The first-strike is essential in a match of two talented young players who aim to dictate play from the baseline. Neither woman has dropped a set so far.
Bouchard is at her best prowling the baseline, pounding shots into the corners and stepping into the court to take away her opponent's reaction time. The 36th-ranked Frenchwoman is the bigger server, but prone to hitting more double faults as well. When she's on her game, Garcia seems to hit winners almost at will, but playing complete matches and avoiding lapses of scatter-shot tennis has been a challenge. Garcia should be empowered by the fact she defeated Bouchard, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 in the Acapulco quarterfinals last spring.
Discipline and shot selection will be key elements here. Both women are big hitters, who like to control the point and can press for the power strike prematurely.
Garcia can be streaky but if she can learn to play the score with more consideration and construct points with more purpose, she has the tools to threaten the elite. Bouchard has been better at managing Grand Slam stress. The Wimbledon runner-up contested semifinals or better at three of the four majors posting a 19-4 Grand Slam record in 2014, while Garcia is playing for her first fourth-round trip in her 12th Grand Slam start. That could work to the Frenchwoman's advantage in that Bouchard has a lot more ranking points at stake here and could get tight, while Garcia can only rise after successive opening-round exits in Melbourne. Still, I think if Bouchard gets off to a good start, she will work her way through a demanding test.
The Pick: Bouchard in 3 sets
(24) Richard Gasquet (FRA) vs. (14) Kevin Anderson (RSA)
Show Court 3 (Last match)
Head-to-head: Gasquet leads 4-1
A third-degree rivalry heats up again. All five of their prior matches have been third-rounders on hard court, so it's fitting they face off in the third round again and fitting it comes on Court 3.
Both are seeking to halt slides against seeds in Grand Slams. Anderson has lost six of his last seven major matches to seeded opponents; Gasquet has lost four in a row to seeds in Grand Slam play.
The 6'8" South African is the more imposing server; Gasquet generates sharp angles on serve off a low ball toss that's tough to read. The backhand is the best groundstroke for both men though they produce the stroke differently. Anderson hits a compact two-hander he can drive crosscourt or drill down the line. Gasquet's sweeping one-hander is his signature shot and one that can displace opponents. Look for Gasquet to alternate sharp-angled backhands with the low slice to force the bigger man to bend low on the run.
Anderson is trying to finish more points moving forward and is a solid volleyer, however he hasn't ventured forward much in Melbourne. Though he often prefers to play several feet behind the baseline, Gasquet is a fine volleyer, whose versatility off the backhand and ability to shift spins give him plenty of attack options.
The South African has been tougher going the distance. Anderson is on a five-match winning streak in five-set matches—he's 9-5 in five setters overall—while Gasquet is 8-13 lifetime going the distance.
The Pick: Gasquet in 4 sets
Sam Groth (AUS) vs. Bernard Tomic (AUS)
Hisense Arena (Last match)
Head-to-head: First meeting
The Thursday departures of native former Grand Slam champions Lleyton Hewitt and Sam Stosur infuses this all-Aussie match with even more intensity for the locals. This is the first all-Aussie men's third rounder in Oz since 2000 when Mark Philippoussis beat the shirt-shredding Andrew Ilie.
A former Aussie Rules football player, the hard-charging Groth is a rugged physical presence and spirited competitor. Groth managed his emotions and rode the crowd energy effectively hitting 26 aces and winning 29 of 54 trips to net to defeat depleted compatriot Thanasi Kokkinakis in round two. Groth knows he won't win this match from the baseline. He will serve-and-volley, chip-and-charge at times off return, attack relentlessly, try to put the pressure on Tomic and extend sets into tie breakers.
The rangy Tomic has a long reach and can put a lot of returns into play. A funky stylist, Tomic can use his flat strokes, ability to alter the pace, down the line backhand and rapid-action serve to torment opponents. He hit 23 aces and saved five of six break points beating No. 22 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second round.
"I have to focus on my serve. I’m serving very well the last few weeks," Tomic said. “I think if I have a lot of service games of mine where I hold pretty comfortably it’s going to put a lot of pressure on him. It’s going to be tough tennis."
I expect Tomic to tough it out.
The Pick: Tomic in 4 sets