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By Erik Gudris | Saturday, January 31, 2015

 
Novak Djokovic Australian Open 2015

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will face off in a third Australian Open final against each other during their careers.

Photo Credit: Corleve

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) Andy Murray
Rod Laver Arena
Head-to-head: Djokovic leads 15 to 8


In many ways, the Australian Open continues to define and inform the careers of both Djokovic and Murray. But in different ways. Now they find themselves staring across the net from each other once again in a third Melbourne final that could possibly redefine their careers again depending on the outcome.

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Let's face it. World No. 1 Djokovic was expected by many to be here. Murray. Not so much. Now these friends from their junior days will have to find a way to beat the other in a rivalry that has now reached its 24th installment.

Murray's appearances in the Melbourne final have marked his progression as a player. Facing off against Roger Federer in his first ever major final, well, that was a rough one for Murray. Who can forget Murray saying after that three set loss, "I can cry like Roger but I can't play like him."

Murray faced off against Djokovic in 2011, but failed to find his best form during what felt like an often incoherent performance from the Scot.

In the 2013 final, Murray found himself two points away from a two sets to love lead versus Djokovic. But it was Djokovic who turned things around to his advantage and went on to win in four sets leaving Murray once again holding the finalist's plate.

Yet, let's not forget that only a couple of months later, Murray defeated Djokovic in the Wimbledon final thus cementing his place in tennis history. It's likely Murray learned something in that defeat at Melbourne six months earlier that allowed him to finally win the title his nation hoped he would. While the overall head to head definitely leans in Djokovic's favor, Murray has defeated Djokovic in two Grand Slam finals. So much for having an advantage based on prior results. But does that mean Murray has the edge in this final?

That all depends on Djokovic, of course, who continues having significant chapters added to his career by what he does down under. From winning his first major title there, to his marathon win over Rafael Nadal in the 2012 final, to his razor thin loss to eventual champion Stan Wawrinka last year, Djokovic's performances in Melbourne often set the tone for the rest of his season. Djokovic likely expects to win, though he also probably knows, or at least hopes it won't, that the crowd will swing in Murray's favor. More so, considering Murray recently said in interviews he doesn't consider himself a favorite at all.

We all know how Djokovic likes having crowd support, and feels slighted when he doesn't get it. And the Aussies always love cheering on an underdog. Could that play a factor in this final?

Like it or not, it's intangibles like these that may just determine the champion more so than any x's and o's strategies of forehand to forehand battles, for instance, being placed out there. While Djokovic has done what it takes to get to this stage, including winning a very ugly match versus defending champion Wawrinka, Murray has had a very different path. As Murray saw off challengers in Grigor Dimitrov, Nick Kyrgios and Tomas Berdych, he, in some ways was sending a message to everyone that, yes, he still deserves to be in the conversation as far as the "big four" are concerned and that also yes, his decision to stick with coach Amelie Mauresmo was, after all, the right move.

Murray, playing with more aggression and that very palpable chip on his shoulder, has enjoyed defying the odds and those who expected less of him. It could well be that desire to say "I told you so" that just might give him an edge over Djokovic. For Djokovic to win, he'll need to serve well, both first and second serves, and not let Murray's own potent backhand be a factor.

Novak Djokovic should win. But if he lets Murray dictate things early, as he did in 2013, this could get complicated. Murray, like in all of his previous Grand Slam finals, is the underdog. It's been a good role for him over the last few years, and one he enjoys. And don't let the "I've got a tough task" rhetoric fool you. If Djokovic accepts that he really is the top dog right now, and that not everybody will like him for it, even if it's just to see a close match, he'll not worry about winning the popular vote and instead focus on just winning.

The Djokovic and Murray rivalry, despite its recent installments, has often felt like a "B Plot" to the larger, more discussed, though also very lopsided one between Federer and Nadal. In this Australian Open final, both Djokovic and Murray have a chance to remind everyone that this could really be the rivalry to focus on for the next few years. A lot of that still depends on Murray, and a win tonight will help. But Djokovic enjoys being the establishment. And as we know, the incumbent often wins.

Pick: Djokovic in four sets.

 

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