By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Tuesday June 25, 2024
Two-thirds of the grass-court season has already whizzed by, and Wimbledon qualifying is well underway. Tennis’ grass-court season is a jarring transition from the slow, romantic march through the European clay to the lightning-quick grass courts, and today we’re here to make sense of the last 15 days and point you all in the direction of the All England Club, where main draw play begins on Monday July 1st.
Here are eight things we’ve learned from grass court season (so far).
Sinner’s a threat
Winning your first grass-court title in your first tournament as World No.1? That’s a pretty nice way to kick off a No.1 tenure. Jannik Sinner has done nothing but impress in 2024, and for his next trick the Italian wunderkind just may make a push for the Wimbledon title.
Sinner was a semifinalist at SW19 last year and he’s got chops on the grass. After losing his first two matches at Wimbledon (in 2019 and 2021), the only player that has been able to handle Sinner on the hallowed lawns of the All England Club has been Novak Djokovic, who defeated the Italian from two sets down in the quarterfinals in 2022 and then in straight sets in the semis last year.
Sinner is all about progression at this phase of his career, so don’t expect that semifinal to remain as a best Wimbledon performance for long…
Could it be Iga’s time to shine?
It’s difficult to say if 2024 will be the year that Iga Swiatek expands her Grand Slam empire – firmly rooted in Paris – to the Wimbledon grass. The Pole opted out of playing a warmup event this year and has only had 19 matches on grass in her career. Last year she showed signs of improving however, and was riding a career-best seven-match grass-court winning streak into the quarterfinals at SW19, where she fell to Elina Svitolina in three sets.
Unlike the clay, where she tends to steamroll her opponents, there are plenty of players capable of defeating Swiatek on the grass. There’s a blueprint for success, built by opponents who have taken the racquet out of her hand and used power as key currency against the Pole. There’s also the question of how focused she will be, given the extreme energy that Swiatek used to run the table on clay this spring, and the fact that the clay of Paris waits for her at this year’s Olympics.
Jpeg is in the mix
Nice to see Jessica Pegula back in form after a few months off the court due to injury. The fith-ranked American had been of an afterthought through the first five-plus months of 2024, but her dramatic victory over Anna Kalinskaya in the Berlin final reminds us of just how gritty the Buffalo native is as a competitor, and how well-suited her game is to grass.
Pegula is 13-4 on grass since the start of 2022. Last year at Wimbledon, Pegula lost a heartbreaker in the quarterfinals to eventual champion Marketa Vondrousova (she was up 4-1 in the third). Who knows what would have happened had she won that match.
Novak is a STRONG maybe
Guess who is back on the grass? Novak Djokovic, less than three weeks removed from meniscus surgery on his right knee, has been putting in the work at the All England Club, and if the seven-time champion’s knee holds up, we could be witnessing history on July 14 in London. Djokovic could tie Roger Federer on the all-time Wimbledon title list by winning what would be a record 25th major title at Wimbledon, but he has to decide to play the tournament first… .
We’ll likely get an official decision from the 24-time major champion in the next few days, but judging from his first three days of practice, signs are positive that he’ll play.
Can Djokovic possibly achieve a feat so remarkable, so soon after surgery? If anyone can, the world-beating Serian can – stay tuned as we wait for news about whether or not Djokovic deems himself fit enough to go for the title.
Unseeded and scary
Off the top of our heads, here are a few unseeded names that nobody will want to see next to their name when the Wimbledon draw is revealed on Thursday.
World No.60 Matteo Berrettini, a former Wimbledon finalist.
Two-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist, Karolina Muchova, back from injury hiatus, ranked 35.
Wild Card for 168-ranked Emma Raducanu, who is loving life on tour once again.
2022 Wimbledon semifinalist Cameron Norrie, ranked 44.
Wild card Naomi Osaka, ranked 111, showed how dangerous she can be when she nearly took out Iga Swiatek in Paris in the second round.
World No.120 Denis Shapovalov, in on protected ranking, an also a former Wimbledon semifinalist.
Alcaraz Repeat?
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will enter main draw play at Wimbledon with a 17-3 lifetime record on grass, but he saw his 13-match winning streak on the surface snapped by Jack Draper at Queen’s Club last week. No shame in that, Alcaraz is no doubt still getting his feet under him on the slippery surface after spending two brilliant weeks in Paris, where he won his third major title and became the youngest player in ATP history to hold a major title on all three surfaces.
Alcaraz erased all doubts about his viability on grass last year when he rallied to defeat Novak Djokovic in a five-set Wimbledon final. There’s no reason why the 21-year-old wunderkind can’t do it again, but 2024 is definitely a tricky year, due to the fact that he’s just won in Paris (and is likely wearing some of the emotional and physical fatigue that comes with it) and the Olympics are looming in Paris – on clay – this summer.
Big 4 Musings
We’ve got no intel from the WTA’s Top-4 so far on grass. Aryna Sabalenka pulled out of Berlin with a shoulder injury. Elena Rybakina pulled out of Berlin due to illness, then pulled out of Easbourne for “scheduling reasons.”
Coco Gauff lost to Jessica Pegula in three sets in the quarterfinals.
With none of the four top players carrying significan form into the All England company we wonder if we’re headed for a repeat of 2023. Marketa Vondrousova came from out of nowhere to win the title at Wimbledon last year, and there are many women capable of doing the same thing.
Jelena Ostapenko? Danielle Collins? Anna Kalinskaya? Ekaterina Alexandrova? Madison Keys? Linda Noskova? Mirra Andreeva? We are not talking about likely winners here, but then again, neither was Vondrousova, who entered last year’s Champoionships with a 1-4 lifetime record on the Wimbledon grass. In other words: anything is possible!
Experience – and affinity – count
Experience counts for so much on grass, because the surface calls for unique skills and grass is typically where most players have less experience, due to the fact that very few players grow up on grass and therefore don’t develop the tools that are necessary for success on it at a young age. Grass season is a five week sliver of the season in which many players only play Wimbledon. It rewards players with very specific skillsets, and it is ruthless on those who are not aggressive, and those who don’t serve well or move well on the grass.
So, who does that give an advantage to? Players with games that naturally sync up and work on grass.
Hubert Hurkacz is a name that comes to mind. He’s nearly impossible to break on any surface, but on the grass, he’s that much more lethal – the Pole is built for grass. Same with Elena Rybakina, who seems to take confidence from the speed with which her ball moves through the court on grass.
More names, and more questions:
Ons Jabeur, with her slice-and-dice repertoire, is a master on the surface, but will she be healthy? Matteo Berrettini is 41-10 lifetime on grass, but is he in good enough shape to peak at the right time at Wimbledon? Jack Draper and Tommy Paul look ready to make a splash, and Alex de Minaur is another player that thrives on the grass. Can these three parlay momentum gained into a deep run in London? It’s one thing to bag a title at a 250, or even Queen’s or Halle, but success at Wimbledon where the spotlight shines that much brighter, it’s entirely another.
There are many intriguing names who stick out as possible suspects, and the fact that each of them embrace the grass makes them stronger candidates to do damage. In a tournament that feels more wide open than it has in year’s past, their affinity for the surface and the confidence that they feel on the grass could make a big difference.