The Big 4 are big favorites at Wimbledon, suggests Roger Federer.
The Big 4—Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Federer—have combined to claim the last 14 Wimbledon championships.
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Oddsmakers have cast the 35-year-old Australian Open champion as the favorite to win his first Wimbledon since 2012 when he defeated the fourth-seeded Murray in four sets.
The favored Federer is followed by Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Marin Cilic as bookmakers' leading favorites.
Despite defending champion Murray’s shock opening-round exit at Queen’s Club and the fact he’s been bothered by a sore hip, Federer says if the world No. 1 is healthy he’s one of the “big favorites” to win his third Wimbledon championship.
“Depending how fit he is, if he's anything close to 100 percent physically, I consider him one of the big favorites to win the tournament,” Federer said of Murray. “It's that simple. It's the same for Novak and the same for Rafa.
“I think it's very even when we put it all out on the line. Everybody has their own little story right now. For me, everything that happened sort of before, Queen's for Andy, whatever, doesn't matter so much because I feel like Andy's one of the best players in the first week at Wimbledon, so I don't worry too much for him there. He can play himself into shape hopefully for week two.
Success breeds success.
Federer said Nadal’s rampage to an unprecedented 10th Roland Garros title without surrendering a set and Djokovic sweeping Gael Monfils to win Eastbourne in his tournament debut will infuse both with confidence for Wimbledon.
“Look, Novak is just coming back from winning Eastbourne now,” Federer said. “Rafa is coming in red hot from the clay. So I see it positive for them rather than negative in some shape, which I'm sure people will try to see that way. But I see that they are going to be tough to beat here.”
Lleyton Hewitt, who defeated David Nalbandian to take the 2002 title, is the last man not named Federer, Murray, Nadal or Djokovic to rule Wimbledon.
Hall of Famer Chrissie Evert believes there is a "90 percent chance" one of the Big 4 will win Wimbledon.
"I think there's, like, a 90 percent chance to me one of those four guys will win," Evert told the media in an ESPN conference call to promote ESPN's Wimbledon coverage starting Monday. "My outside danger players would be Stan Wawrinka. He has Paul Annacone now in his corner. It's not a lot of time to sort of tweak your game that much. But Stan's got to be more aggressive. If he gets into an aggressive frame of mind, there's a possibility. He's an outsider.
"(Nick) Kyrgios is always dangerous, but mentally I don't know if he can put together a lot of wins in a row yet, seven. (Milos) Raonic is a question mark. (Alexander) Zverev. I mean, you got some dangerous players that could upset one of those top four. I just don't know if they can do it consistently. It's like a brick wall, I think, to get through those four players."
So what happens if the Big 4 all falter?
Federer suggests sometime doubles partner Stan Wawrinka, former US Open champion Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, who toppled Federer in the 2016 semifinals, Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, who have each defeated the 18-time Grand Slam champion, are the top threats.
“I think that Zverev and Kyrgios have shown what they can do, how good they can be,” Federer said. “You know, the likes of Raonic and Nishikori and Dimitrov I think are in a good spot right now where, you know, they can go very deep and nobody would really be surprised.
“Away from those five players, I'm not sure how deep we're talking about. Are we talking about winning Wimbledon? That's going to be obviously a longshot. I'm sure I forgot a few, but I think those five we know what they can do. Then I think Dominic Thiem, I think he's got great power where he can go deep at any major at this point, even though grass is maybe not his most natural surface. I lost to him in Stuttgart last year. I was very impressed in how he was able to manage his game on the grass. I see some interesting stuff there from him.
“But then, you know, I do believe the favorites are the other players. I include the likes of Cilic into that, Stan, guys who have done it before. It should be an interesting Wimbledon—again."
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