By Chris Oddo | Wednesday January 23, 2019
And then there were four. The semifinals are set in Melbourne and we're breaking down both matchups and making our picks.
Photo Source: Mark Peterson/Corleve
And then there were four. The Australian Open women’s singles draw has whittled down to four and we’re here to break down the matchups.
[8] Petra Kvitova v Danielle Collins
Head to Head: Kvitova leads 1-0
Key Stat No.1: Kvitova has won ten straight matches to reach her first major semifinal since 2014.
Key Stat No.2: Collins had never won a main draw match at a major in five tries prior to this year. She has hit 67 winners against 38 unforced errors in her last two matches and has knocked off three Top-20 seeds en route to the semis.
The Story
Just three weeks ago, Petra Kvitova and Danielle Collins played a grinding tilt that lasted three hours and eventually went to Kvitova by the score of 6-7(6), 7-6(6), 6-3. Collins saved five set points to claim the opening set and even served for the match in the second set before the Czech hit back, taking the second set in a tiebreaker and going on to notch the hard-fought victory.
Whatever we make of that season-opening match for Collins and Kvitova, it clearly gives us enough information to declare that the unheralded American has it in her to ruffle the feathers of Kvitova in the same fashion that she has ruffled the feathers of Julia Goerges, Caroline Garcia and, most impressively, Angelique Kerber, in Australia.
Kvitova hit 53 winners against 74 unforced errors in that match, and she’ll likely play it the same way, looking to strike first against Collins. If she can trim down her error count she just might be able to dominate Collins. But let’s not make the mistake of underestimating Collins’ ability to find ways to hurt the two-time Slam champion.
“We had a really great battle a couple weeks ago, one of the best matches I've played,” Collins said of the match in Brisbane. “I didn't even win that match. So very familiar with her.”
Both players have been menacing in Melbourne. Kvitova has not dropped a set and she has now won 10 in a row since starting the season. One has to believe that Kvitova will have the edge in experience, this being her fifth Grand Slam semifinal and her second at the Australian Open.
There’s also an air of magic surrounding Kvitova. She was always a sentimental favorite thanks to her genuine character and easy going style, but after she has returned from a career-threatening surgery to her left hand that stemmed from a stabbing during a home invasion in 2016, she has been even more so.
There is a lightness to Kvitova, a spiritual element that is bigger than tennis. Just the fact that she’s overcome all the physical and psychological difficulties to be here is a triumph.
“I'm calling it as my second career,” she said on Tuesday in Melbourne. “So it's the first semifinal of the second career. But, yeah, it's took me while, for sure. I never really played so well on the Grand Slams, so I'm happy this time it's different. I'm really enjoying it.”
As far as tactics go, this should be a classic battle of gunslingers. Kvitova, well, she’s always looking to cause pain early and often. Collins can play it defensively when the situation calls for it, but defense against Kvitova is basically putting the match on the Czech's terms. That’s not how Collins has reached so far in Australia, and it won’t be how she plays it against the Czech.
The Prediction:
Kvitova in straight sets
[4] Naomi Osaka v [7] Karolina Pliskova
Head to Head: Pliskova leads 2-1
Key Stat No.1: Pliskova (6-0) and Osaka (3-0) are a combined 9-0 in deciders in 2019.
Key Stat No.2: Pliskova has struck 55 winners against 18 unforced errors in her last two victories (over Garbiñe Muguruza and Serena Williams).
Key Stat No.3: Osaka (35) and Pliskova (34) are No.1 and No.2 in aces through five rounds at the Australian Open.
The Story
Karolina Pliskova talked about the importance of coming back from a set and break down to defeat Lesia Tsurenko in a messy Brisbane final a few weeks ago and she said those are the types of matches one needs to get through in order to go deep in a Slam. Clearly the confidence she took from that final has helped her in Melbourne, where she recovered from a very shaky start to defeat Madison Brengle in the second round and then battled past Serena Williams in an epic encounter on Day 10, where she found a way back from 5-1 down in the decider, saving four match points in the process.
However big the role of Williams’ ankle issue was down the stretch in that match, make no mistake about the fact that Pliskova played brilliantly to secure the final six games against the seven-time Aussie Open champion.
But Pliskova is not the only player left in the draw that is high on confidence. Naomi Osaka has been through her share of trials and tribulations in her first five matches, most notably in the third round against Hsieh Su-Wei, where she rallied from a set and break down with a mature, composed performance.
“I was two games from losing the match, so I think being able to come back and fight is something that I have been attempting to do for a while, but I haven't really been able to grasp, like, the emotions to do it,” she said after that match. “So winning like this gives me confidence.”
Osaka has already won three matches when dropping the first set in 2019, something she only did twice in 21 opportunities last season.
Both players will come in driving truckloads of belief. Both players are big servers and powerful strikers of the ball. So where does the edge lie? Movement is not the strong point for either player, but both have improved a great deal in that aspect of late as well.
This one promises to be a fairly even contest, one in which execution will be paramount, and mental toughness could hold key. It will be a match of short (ish) rallies and opportunistic aggression. Service breaks will be amplified and mistakes will be costly.
The Prediction:
Osaka in three