By Chris Oddo | Wednesday January 23, 2019
And then there were four: Djokovic, Nadal and a pair of upstarts will contest the semifinals in Melbourne. We break down the matchups.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
And then there were four. The Australian Open men’s singles draw has whittled down to four and we’re here to break down the matchups.
[2] Rafael Nadal v [14] Stefanos Tsitsipas
Head to Head: Nadal leads 2-0
Key Stat No.1: Nadal has yet to drop a set in Melbourne and he has only spent 10:25 on court.
Key Stat No.2: Tsitsipas in the youngest men’s singles Australian Open semifinalist since 2003 (Andy Roddick) and the youngest at a Slam since 2007 (Novak Djokovic 2007 US Open).
The Story
In a way, both Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas have surprised us with their run to the semifinal in Melbourne. To be clear, it’s not a surprise that Nadal reached the semis—but it is a surprise that he has been able to do it so efficiently, spending so little time on court without having dropped a single set. Prior to the tournament there were health concerns surrounding Nadal after he pulled out of Brisbane, and it was thought to be absolutely imperative that he was able to navigate his way through the draw with ease, not spending energy unnecessarily.
Now that he’s done that the Spaniard emerges as the clear favorite in his semifinal against upstart Tsitsipas, a player that has needed four sets to get through every round he has played, and a player that has never participated in a Grand Slam semifinal.
But don’t be fooled, Tsitsipas has proven far too much in his takedown of Roger Federer in the round of 16 and his remarkable follow-up in the quarterfinals against Roberto Bautista Agut to be reduced to cannon fodder in this match.
The Greek is showing here in Melbourne why he is ahead of his #NextGenATP peers. He possesses all the tools to become a great player. The big serve, the bristling groundstrokes, a keen awareness of how to approach and finish points at the net, tactical savvy and, perhaps biggest of all, a propensity for managing nerves and playing his very best tennis in the big moments.
Smash all these ingredients together and rub them into a paste, this is the champion’s putty, the glue that keeps a great player together against all challengers under all circumstances.
For his next magic act, Tsitsipas will try to knock off Nadal, a player with 30 Grand Slam semifinals to his name, and one that defeated Tsitsipas twice in finals in 2018. As daunting as it may seem, Tsitsipas has proven to be a fast learner and an astute reader of his opponents. We’ll use the example of Alexander Zverev, who absolutely shellacked Pouille in the semis of the Citi Open at Washington, DC last season only to fall to the Greek in three sets a week later in Toronto.
There’s also Federer, who beat Tsitsipas in two tiebreakers at Hopman Cup in the first week of the year but found himself unable to put away the Greek in their round of 16 match in Melbourne.
The lesson here is that we shouldn’t count Tsitsipas out based on his two losses to Nadal, or his inexperience. If anything is working against him, however, it is the fatigue factor. He may have youth on his side but having been through so much in Melbourne it is hard to know what he will have left in the tank on Thursday night.
In terms of matchups, we also worry quite a bit about the Greek’s ability to rely on his backhand return. He’s sure to see a steady diet of serves coming to that side from Nadal, and if there is one weakness in his game, this is it. The backhand will be tested by Nadal all night, and particularly on serve.
As far as Nadal goes, he’s in perfect shape to continue his run in Melbourne. He’s firing on all cylinders, serving well, and executing his game to perfection. If there is one worry it’s the tape that he had on his abdomen in his quarterfinal victory over Frances Tiafoe. Is it an issue? He didn’t want to say in press on Tuesday night.
“Is not the day to talk about this,” he said when asked by a reporter about the tape. “Thank you very much for your worry. Things that happen during the tournament, that's all.”
It might be an issue, it may not be. If it isn’t we like Nadal to find a way to keep Tsitsipas at bay in this tilt. If it is, well, we don’t even want to think about that. Nadal’s health issues on hardcourts have been all too well documented. We hope both players show up in good health and finish the match that way as well.
The Prediction:
Nadal in four
[1] Novak Djokovic v [28] Lucas Pouille
Head to Head: First meeting
Key Stat No.1: Pouille entered this year’s Australian Open with a career record of 0-5 at the event. He’s 5-5 now.
Key Stat No.2: Djokovic is 66-8 at the Australian Open and 33-0 as the top seed at Melbourne Park.
Key Stat No.3: Djokovic has reached the semifinals at the Australian Open seven times. In each of his previous six he went on to win the title.
The Story
Six-time champion Novak Djokovic will run up against one of the biggest surprises of this year’s Australian Open in the semifinals in Lucas Pouille, a player that had never won a match in Melbourne prior to this season.
Pouille has turned the corner in Melbourne, playing with a newfound patience and variety, thanks in part to his recently formed union with coach Amelie Mauresmo.
He has earned wins over No.11-seeded Borna Coric and No. 16-seeded Milos Raonic to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal, but his next test will be far more difficult.
He has never faced Novak Djokovic and he’ll get a chance to take a crack at the World No.1 on the court that the Serb has dominated like no other on Friday night in Melbourne.
It’s hard to see Pouille making too much of an impact on Djokovic’s game but he will benefit significantly from the fact that his confidence is sky-high and he has nothing to lose in this match. No matter what the outcome, this has been a great week for Pouille in Melbourne and a great beginning to his pairing with Mauresmo.
It will be interesting to see what he and his coach can cook up from a tactical perspective—Mauresmo has plenty of experience coaching against the Serb from her days with Andy Murray and perhaps she can lay out an impactful plan for her charge to follow against Djokovic.
But even the best laid plans have failed against Djokovic of late; he’s a tough nut to crack and this week at Melbourne he’s dropped a few sets but never really been in trouble. Is there anything Pouille can do to fluster him? The Frenchman has a powerful enough game, the question will be if he can execute.
The Prediction:
Djokovic in four