By Chris Oddo | Saturday September 8, 2018
And then there were two. Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro are set to battle for the U.S. Open men’s singles title on Saturday with history on the line and year’s final major title at stake. Most believe that it is Djokovic’s title to lose—the Serb has been on fire in New York and looks ready to assert himself as the most dominant player in tennis once again—but we must not overlook Del Potro’s ability to produce magic, specifically in New York, when we consider this match.
It promises to be an emotional affair, played by two men that hold the utmost respect for one another.
Without any further ado, let’s break down this matchup.
Novak Djokovic v Juan Martin del Potro
Head-to-Head: Djokovic leads 14-4 and 4-0 at the majors, including 2-0 at the U.S. Open.
Key statistic: Djokovic is bidding to tie Pete Sampras on the all-time major title list at 14.
Key Statistic #2: If Del Potro wins he would break the record for most major appearances between maiden major title and second major title at 22.
Key Trend: Both players are well rested, and this might be most important for Del Potro, who only had to play two hours and one minute against Rafael Nadal on Friday. The Argentine has managed his body well in this tournament while dropping just one set in his six matches. Djokovic has dropped two sets and will also be well rested. Fatigue should not be a factor in this contest.
And here we go. The 19th matchup between two great friends, and their fourth at the U.S. Open, promises to be their most emotionally charged battle. That comes as no surprise because when it comes to Juan Martin del Potro and New York City we know that emotions always run high. The Argentine won the title in 2009 and that victory remains his greatest triumph on the court.
But off the court Del Potro has been even more of an inspiration. The Tower of Tandil’s well-documented return from a total of four wrist surgeries, including three on his left wrist that had him dealing with depression and seriously contemplating hanging up the racquet.
“The worst moment was in 2015 when I was close to quit this sport because I couldn't find a way to fix my wrist problems,” Del Potro said on Friday after he defeated Rafael Nadal in New York. “I had been suffering a lot. I got depressed for couple of months also. I didn't get the chance to feel better with myself, to do this again. That was the bad moment for me. But I think that is completely in the past, and now I'm having a good present, looking forward for the future. I didn't expect to get this kind of emotions playing tennis again. Reaching finals, winning titles, having my highest ranking ever in this moment, everything is almost perfect.”
Since his return Del Potro has captivated fans with his humanity and, of course, his ability to create magic on the tennis court. Barely back on tour he won the Silver Medal at the 2016 Olympic Games, and he did it without a topspin backhand. As time has passed Del Potro has gradually become comfortable with his surgically repaired wrist and he’s no longer exploitable on that side. Is his backhand what it used to be? Probably not, but it’s enough to give the Argentine a foundation for his tactics. He can use it in patterns and not be vulnerable, and eventually find a way to turn the tide with his menacing, legendary forehand.
“My wrist, it's okay,” he said. “I know I'm not 100%, but I can play tennis in this condition. I will be proud if I still playing tennis for more years.”
Once again, Del Potro’s backhand will be the key to success on Sunday. Not because he will use it or need it as his prominent mode of attack, but because he absolutely must use the backhand productively in rallies to keep Djokovic from exploiting the backhand to backhand pattern that he can clearly dominate.
The Serb has struck the ball so cleanly, and moved so well in his last few matches, and the onus will be on Del Potro not only to use his power to disrupt Djokovic’s otherworldly flow, but to use his backhand to hang with Djokovic in the rallies that he is inevitably forced into.
Make no mistake, it will be a daunting task. Djokovic is playing so marvelously in all aspects. He’s been able to use his serve and his return to get into the type of rallies that suit him, and he has created a whopping 37 break points in his last two matches.
Del Potro must find a way to hold serve easier in order to avoid a long, grueling match and too much mental pressure. He must make first serves and use that shot to set up an aggressive stance in rallies.
As for Djokovic, well, he just needs to be Djokovic. He’s 14-4 lifetime against Del Potro, he’s won the pair’s last three meetings and six of their last seven. He’s found a way, in the last three or four weeks, to become as good on hardcourts as he was on the grass at Wimbledon.
He’s also playing with a newfound purpose. This is, once again, a man clearly at the height of his powers who has found the right balance in his personal and professional lives. He’s committed everywhere—on the court and off—to be the best player and person he can be, and it shows in his tennis.
It may have been a slow start to the hardcourt season for Djokovic, but since he came through four straight three-setters in Cincinnati and then rocked Federer to win the long coveted Golden Masters, he has been off and running. A few shaky moments in New York, primarily due to the ultra-hot and humid conditions, have only served to make Djokovic stronger at the U.S. Open.
When he plays this way he’s virtually impossible to beat. But then again it seemed that five-time champion Roger Federer was virtually impossible to beat in 2009 when he came into his final with Del Potro on a 40 match winning streak in New York City.
That didn’t stop Del Potro from unleashing his fury on the tennis world and claiming his first and only major title. There’s a lesson to be learned from that performance, and it is this: There is a level of inspiration and emotional violence that can transform Juan Martin del Potro from man to messianic martyr.
Emotions, perhaps even more than tactics, will guide the ebbs and flows of this final, and because of that, Del Potro should have opportunities to get the upper hand on Djokovic at junctures. And if he does, and if he runs with the momentum he creates, there’s a chance he can claim victory.
But the odds are with Djokovic—he’s the man to beat right now based on form and function. This is his title to win and his history to make, and only the heavy hand of Del Potro stands in the way.
Pick: Djokovic in Four