By Chris Oddo | Friday November 16, 2018
The semis are set at the ATP Finals in London, and with a potential Djokovic-Federer final looming on the horizon, we first turn our attention to Satuday’s semifinals, which shape up as follows:
Roger Federer will face Alexander Zverev in the first semifinal on Saturday, with the pair contesting their first battle since last year’s ATP Finals (won by Federer in three).
Federer, a six-time ATP Finals champion (and 57-14 lifetime at the event) holds the 3-2 lifetime edge over Zverev, but the German has scored significant wins over Federer at Halle in 2016 and at the Rogers Cup final in Montreal last summer.
Though the German has made headlines primarily for his comments about the brutal nature of the ATP’s calendar this week in London, he did manage to come through with a 2-1 record, notching wins over Marin Cilic and John Isner to book his spot in the semifinals for the first time.
Federer dropped his opener to Kei Nishikori but reversed course and won his group by notching straight-sets wins over Dominic Thiem and Kevin Anderson.
At this stage of the season it’s been 37-year-old Federer who has been in better form than 21-year-old Zverev (go figure). The Swiss won the Basel title and reached the semis in Paris where he was edged by Djokovic in a brilliant three-set semifinal. If he can show that type of form on Saturday he should have the edge over a weary Zverev, one that seems to be limping to the finish line more than storming to it.
Zverev hasn’t played a final since he won the Citi Open title in early August, but if he can clear his mind and battle fatigue for a few more days he could produce a bit of a shock here in London. No doubt, his new coach Ivan Lendl would like to see his charge show up on a big stage and take some momentum into the abbreviated off-season.
Zverev acquitted himself nicely on Friday, powering past Isner behind 18 aces to win in straight sets. But in his biggest match of the week he fizzled in the second set and won just 7 of 19 service points as Novak Djokovic ran away from him on Wednesday.
Which Zverev will show up on Saturday? It better be the one we saw on Friday...
Federer, meanwhile is in good form at an event that he has won six times, and drifting ever closer to winning his 100th career title. He’ll be motivated to prove a point as the finish line draws near. He'll look to be opportunistic, capitalizing on any show of fatigue from Djokovic.
Zverev will need to serve big and play big to keep Federer at bay.
Djokovic will look to continue his obscene level when he faces Kevin Anderson in Saturday’s second semifinal (a rematch of the Wimbledon final). It’s been a brilliant season for the Serb, who has won the last two majors and has won 34 of 36 matches since Wimbledon started.
The Serb is a man at the peak of his powers once again and he will be the huge favorite. Djokovic made relatively light work of Anderson in this year's Wimbledon final, and he zapped the big man again at Shanghai where he knocked off Anderson in straight sets in the quarterfinals.
He's now 7-1 against Anderson, with seven victories on the trot against the World No. 6.
Anderson, like the rest of the tour right now, simply doesn’t match up with Djokovic when the world No.1 is at full throttle. Djokovic is just too energized, too dynamic and too relentless. Yes, even at this late stage of the season. Clinching the year-end No.1 ranking has not slowed the Serb down—he has bounced back from a tough loss in the Paris final to Karen Khachanov and is playing top-notch tennis once again.
That said, this is a great opportunity for Anderson to cap off what has been his best professional season with a defining victory. If he puts his best foot forward and executes aggressive serve-forehand tactics with aplomb, he could have a shot to shock.
Not likely, but a shot.
There’s a lot of intrigue in London as the season winds down to its final three ATP-level matches. With Federer seeking his 100th title and Djokovic (also looking to tie Federer's total of six ATP Finals titles) looking for the perfect cherry to place on top of his magical campaign, we wouldn’t suggest betting on anything other than a Federer-Djokovic final.