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By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, May 26, 2017

 
Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic

Reigning Roland Garros champion Novak Djokovic could meet nine-time champion Rafael Nadal in the semifinals.

Photo credit: Christopher Levy

Terre battue doesn’t talk, but its message is clear.

Slide marks in the red clay speak to the importance of swift directional change while reminding this Roland Garros is a reclamation project for several stars.

More: Reasons For Rafael Nadal's Resurgence

Will reigning Roland Garros champion Novak Djokovic, who has won just two titles since completing the career Grand Slam in Paris last year, snap his malaise working with new coach Andre Agassi?

Can Rafael Nadal, energized by an ATP-best 17-1 clay-court record this year, reclaim Roland Garros and raise the Coupe des Mousquetaires for an unprecedented 10th time?

Will reuniting with coach Ivan Lendl help world No. 1 Andy Murray get back on track after a bout with the shingles, a dismal clay campaign and just one title in eight tournament starts this year?

Can an explosive young talent—Rome champion Alexander Zverev, Madrid finalist Dominic Thiem or Nick Kyrgios—break through to a first major final?

Will reigning US Open champion and 2015 Roland Garros champ Stan Wawrinka, who managed just two wins in three clay-court Masters events, reproduce his annual Roland Garros renaissance and reach the quarterfinals for the fourth time in the last five years?

Here’s our quarter-by-quarter analysis of the Roland Garros men’s draw.


Top Quarter


Top-seeded Murray opens against Andrey Kuznetsov and could see a rematch of the Rio Olympics gold-medal match with Juan Martin del Potro in the third round— if the 2009 US Open champion is healthy and fully fit after suffering shoulder and back pain in Lyon this week. Former semifinalist del Potro has not played Roland Garros since 2012.

Murray’s former coach, Brad Gilbert, believes the Scot’s struggles stem from three primary factors: He is not serving with the same authority as last season, he’s feeling the stress of defending the top spot and he’s retreated to defensive postures under pressure.

“I think the struggles this whole year are on his serve” Gilbert said of Murray during an ESPN conference call this week. “Last year he held at a career-high 85 percent of the time. This year 78 percent. That’s 7 percent less, which is huge. He was winning 54 percent of his second-serve points last year, 50 percent this year. Maybe the biggest one was he was saving 66 percent of his break points last year, 55 percent this year. Serve numbers are way down.”

The return of coach Lendl, a three-time Roland Garros champion, could provide inspiration and emotional stability. But can Murray, who arrives in Paris with a mediocre 4-4 clay-court record, find the edge in his game?



Since defeating Fernando Verdasco to win his 45th career title in Dubai, the 2016 Rome champion has slumped to a 5-5 record, including some passive play in an opening-round Rome loss to Fabio Fognini.

“Lendl will be on board this week, the practice week. Obviously needs to get some momentum,” Gilbert said. “I think of all these slams as two parts: the first part is get through the first week, then all of a sudden get through the first week and maybe you can get back and make a deep run. He was dictating play a lot more last year on clay, especially with the forehand, playing more offensive minded. He is definitely playing a little more defensive minded. Having that balance between offense and defense, that has been an issue.”

Still, Murray has reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals in six of his last seven appearances in Paris.

First-Round To Watch: Fernando Verdasco vs. (9) Alexander Zverev A rematch of their Madrid meeting last month, which Zverev won 7-5, 6-3. The experienced Verdasco has failed to survive the first round just once in 13 prior Paris appearances and pulled off an opening-round upset of Rafael Nadal in Melbourne a couple of years ago.

Quarterfinal Pick: (1) Andy Murray vs. (9) Alexander Zverev


Second Quarter


Why is Wawrinka often overlooked prior to majors? This season, the sturdy Swiss burst out to a 12-4 record, including an Australian Open semifinal loss to Roger Federer and an Indian Wells final defeat to Federer. Since then, Wawrinka stumbled to a 4-4 mark through Rome and enter this week without having back-to-back wins since Miami.

Still, Stan has won six of his 15 career titles on clay, his .665 winning percentage on dirt is his best on any surface and we’ve seen how the 2015 champion can electrify Paris when he’s driving the ball down the line with authority. Wawrinka is a strong man and hard hitter capable of hitting through the sometime slow conditions.



The world No. 3 is a favorite in an intriguing quarter that features a trio of experienced Frenchman—Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a semifinalist in two of the last four years, 2008 semifinalist Gael Monfils, 2016 quarterfinalist Richard Gasquet—as well as the explosive and enigmatic Nick Kyrgios, former finalist David Ferrer, theatrical Italian Fabio Fognini, who toppled Murray last week, and 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic.

Wawrinka and Tsonga have a history of grueling matches in Paris. Wawrinka has won five of their eight meetings overall and two of their three Roland Garros clashes, including a 2015 semifinal conquest.

First-Round To Watch: Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (18) Nick Kyrgios On paper, the Miami semifinalist should overpower the 33-year-old German. However, Kyrgios has struggled with a hip issue that forced him out of Rome and could have contributed to his Lyon loss this week. Kolschreiber knows his way around clay: He has won five of his seven career titles on clay and held five championship points before falling to Borna Coric in the Marrakech final last month.

Quarterfinal Pick: (3) Stan Wawrinka vs. (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga


Third Quarter


Rafael Nadal has not dropped a set in two prior clay-court meetings with opening-round opponent Benoit Paire and should surge to a fast start.

Playing for his record-extending 10th Roland Garros crown, Nadal is empowered by a 17-1 clay-court record that includes his 10th career titles in Monte Carlo and Barclona and his fifth Madrid Open championship.

The fourth-ranked Spaniard’s path to the quarters could include a third-round clash with 31st-seeded Frenchman Gilles Simon and a potential fourth-round meeting with explosive American Jack Sock in a meeting of two tremendous topspin forehands.

The 14th-seeded Sock opens against dangerous Czech lefty Jiri Vesely, who upset then world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo last year.

The 30-year-old Nadal’s strong form, dominant 72-2 Roland Garros record and fierce desire make him the oddsmakers favorite to raise his 10th Roland Garros title.

“I think Nadal is in a very commanding position right now,” seven-time Roland Garros champion Chrissie Evert said. “Yes, it’s the best we’ve seen him play in a few years. He’s ironed out all the problems he’s had with his confidence and his movement. He’s got a little more strength to all his shots, not only the serve, but his groundies. He’s just timed this perfectly well.”



Given the fact Pablo Carreno Busta has been a chronic underachiever in majors, posting just two career Roland Garros victories and failing to survive the second round in 11 of 14 career Grand Slams, picking him to reach the second week may sound slightly nutty at best and a bracket buster at worst.

Here’s why we think the Estoril champion can make the second week for the first time in a major: Carreno Busta is playing more offensive tennis these days, posting a 17-8 clay-court record.

The downside: The Spanish baseliner is 0-16 lifetime vs. Top 10 opponents and will need to snap that slide to make the last eight. Carreno Busta could play 11th-seeded Australian Open semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in the third round followed by a possible fourth-round match with Milos Raonic. Carreno Busta has lost all three prior meetings with the Wimbledon finalist.

First-Round To Watch: Jiri Vesely vs. (14) Jack Sock Sock squeezed out a 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (1) win when they met in Rome last week and is a more athletic and a better mover, but Vesely can be dangerous when landing his left-handed forehand with damaging intent.

Quarterfinal Pick: (4) Rafael Nadal vs. (20) Pablo Carreno Busta


Fourth Quarter


The spotlight shines on reigning champion Novak Djokovic, who arrives in the City of Light surrounded by questions. The second seed faces Spanish veteran Marcel Granollers in his opener.

Hiring 1999 Roland Garros champion Andre Agassi not only gives Djokovic an experienced, cerebral, communicative coach in his corner, it immediately changes the narrative surrounding his season.

The second-ranked Serbian, who had spent recent press conferences trying to explain his problems that include winning just two titles in his last 14 tournaments, can now shift the dialogue to problem-solving measures he hopes to create with Agassi.

Djokovic stayed true to his recent up-and-down dynamic in Rome dismantling Dominic Thiem, 6-1, 6-0, in the semifinals before failing to earn a break point in a straight-sets loss to 20-year-old Zverev in the final.

Does a new coach, new approach and new clothes—Djokovic left Uniqlo and signed on as Lacoste brand ambassador—all add up to a renewed Novak?



Consider the best-of-five set format gives the 12-time Grand Slam champion time to recover if he endures some of the mental and emotional lapses we've seen this season.

David Goffin is capable of a quarterfinal run in this section. The 10th-seeded Belgian, who is coming off a 2016 quarterfinal run, meets a qualifier and could play Thiem for a quarterfinal spot. 

Barcelona and Madrid runner-up Thiem has arguably been the second-best clay-court player in the world behind Nadal this spring. The 2016 semifinalist boasts a 17-4 clay-court record this season with six of Thiem's eight career titles coming on clay. Thiem plays Australian Bernard Tomic in round one.

"Thiem, on a given day, can beat anyone in the world, as he showed in Rome," Tennis Channel analyst and former Top 10 player James Blake said. "Three out of five sets, that's a familiar setting for Rafa, how much success he's had there, I would think of him as a pretty big favorite.

"Thiem, for many years to come, will be a contender there. I think he's someone that will get a slam at some point in his career. If I had to bet on one he would get, it would be Roland Garros. But it might just be a waiting game for the rest of the tour until Rafa is done collecting all those French Open titles."

The seventh-ranked Austrian is still refining his transition game and improving his net skills. Thiem is winless in five career meetings with Djokovic, who has won 11 of the 12 sets they've played.


Quarterfinal Pick: (2) Novak Djokovic vs.  (7) Dominic Thiem

 

 

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